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Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Appalachian State +14

This is a brutal spot for the NC State Wolfpack.  They have to try and get back up off the mat after one of the worst losses I've ever seen against SEC foe Vanderbilt.  They were trying to take a safety and punt in the final seconds with a 3-point lead.  Instead, they fumbled in the end zone and gave up a TD  to lose on the final play.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I don't see NC State getting back up in time to face a non-conference opponent here in Appalachian State.  Meanwhile, this is the biggest game of the season for the Mountaineers against an in-state Power 4 program.  I know they will be up for this game, and their best effort is good enough to stay within two touchdowns of NC State.

Dowell Loggains is doing a great job bringing talent to Boone and getting the most out of this team in his 2nd season.  The Mountaineers are 3-0 this season opening with a 55-3 win over Maine.  That's a Maine team that just lost by 6 to Boston College last week.  They went on the road and upset ECU 27-24 as 6.5-point road dogs in Week 2.  And last week they beat Charlotte 26-21 as 15.5-point favorites last week.

That misleading final against Charlotte has provided extra line value on App State this week.  The Mountaineers outgained the 49ers 435 to 247, or by 188 total yards.  They clearly should have won by more but Charlotte got a couple TD's in garbage time, both in the final seven minutes, including a 36-yard Pick 6.  They took their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter and were probably looking ahead to NC State.

The Wolfpack lost a lot of talent in the offseason and it showed in a 34-8 loss to Virginia as 4-point dogs in the opener.  They were crushed every bit as much as the final score showed in that game getting outgained 413 to 168, or by 245 yards by the Cavaliers.  That's the same Virginia team that just got upset as double-digit favorites by West Virginia last week.  A blowout win over Richmond and a close game against a rebuilding Vanderbilt team don't change my opinion on this NC State squad.  

The Wolfpack lost all their top playmakers on offense and nine starters on defense from last season.  QB CJ Bailey is a nice talent, but he also makes plenty of mistakes as evidenced by the colossal one he made against Vanderbilt last week.  He has accounted for just 5 TD's and 4 turnovers this season.  This is probably the worst defense of the Dave Doeren era, too.

App State QB Malachi Singleton has been impressive completing 74.5% of his passes for 889 yards with 6 total TD's and only one INT.  He is averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt.  Four different receivers have at least 116 yards receiving, so he is spreading it around well.  Sam Pickett III leads the way with 15 receptions for 229 yards and 2 TD.  The defense is holding opponents to 304.7 yards per game and 4.8 per play as well.

The Mountaineers will be 'all in' for this game knowing they have a bye on deck next week.  They will open up the entire playbook to try and get to 4-0 with an upset win over a Power 4 opponent.  This is a sandwich spot for NC State off the deflating loss to SEC foe Vanderbilt, plus with undefeated ACC title contender Louisville on deck next week.  Bet Appalachian State Saturday.

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Middle Tennessee +7

The Key: Middle Tennessee went 3-9 last year and still nearly beat Jacksonville State.  They lost 24-21 as 6-point home dogs.  That was a Jacksonville State team that went 9-5 and played in the C-USA title game.  This 2026 Jacksonville State team is down from that one, especially after losing one of the best RB's in the country in Cam Cook who rushed for 1,659 yards and 16 TD last year.  The Gamecocks are 2-2 this season with a 33-7 loss to North Dakota State and a 29-27 loss to a bad Ohio team.  They also only beat Georgia Southern by 4 at home.  This is also a tired Jacksonville State team playing for a 5th consecutive week after playing in Week 0. They went to OT with Ohio 2 weeks ago and have expended a lot of energy the last 2 weeks in nail biters.  They won't have much left in the tank for Middle Tennessee, which has been impressive.  The Blue Raiders are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS this season with their only loss coming by 2 as 12.5-point dogs at Marshall.  They upset Nevada 27-20 at home as 3.5-point dogs last week and also covered in a 38-14 win over Murray State at home.  Now they have their sights set on revenge from that 3-point loss to the Gamecocks last year.  This line should be closer to 3 than 7.  Take Middle Tennessee.

**5X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2011, the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2009 and the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2008! He had his best season to date finishing as the #2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020! He also finished as the #4 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2024 two seasons ago! He is also on a 153-113 Run on NCAAF 7* Top Plays as well as a 37-24 NCAAF Run since last year! He has cashed in a 10-3 Run L3 Days in all sports! Give your book the beating it deserves this weekend and hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 13-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* Big 12 Game of the Month as he adds to his 16-2 7* Top Plays Run over the last 18 days! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get his next day of NCAA Football picks for FREE!

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Raul Rosas Jr. -148

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Mississippi State -5.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 3-0 this season with blowout wins over ULM 62-13 at home and Minnesota 38-13 on the road.  The Bulldogs then went on the road again last week to prove they were for real, upsetting South Carolina 41-34.  They have arguably the best QB in the country in Kamario Taylor, who has thrown for 832 yards and 11 touchdowns while also rushing for 178 yards and a score.  Now the Bulldogs host Missouri in a night game in Starkville.  The Cowbells will be ringing, and this will be one of the most electric atmospheres for a home game in Starkville in the past decade.  Missouri nearly lost to Troy at home as 4-touchdown favorites last week.  They actually got outgained by 93 yards by Troy and were held to 230 total yards.  QB Austin Simmons is a turnover waiting to happen and I don't trust him in this road atmosphere.  The Bulldogs should win by a TD or more.  Give me Mississippi State.

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Missouri vs Mississippi State CFB Free Pick

The Angle(s): This SEC Saturday matchup features two undefeated offenses averaging high totals through three weeks. Mississippi State enters scoring 47.0 points per game, powered by quarterback Kamario Taylor (832 pass YDS, 11 TD, 1 INT) and a ground attack averaging 244.0 rushing yards per contest. The Bulldogs operate at a fast pace and generate explosive plays, leading to high-scoring outputs that have cleared the total in two of their first three games this season.

Missouri brings plenty of offensive firepower of its own, averaging 39.7 points and 252.3 passing yards per game behind signal-caller Austin Simmons (652 pass YDS, 8 TD) and running back Jamal Roberts (300 rush YDS, 3 TD). With both offenses maintaining high scoring metrics and efficient red-zone execution, game flow points toward an up-tempo shootout exceeding the posted number.

The Bet: Over (3%). 

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 9-26-26

UNDER 53 1/2 Kennesaw State/Arkansas State

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NOTE: This is a TEAM TOTAL selection but if you do not have access to that option you can play Oregon State as a side play as our complimentary selection for Saturday. However, the preferred play is the TEAM TOTAL. Analysis here: #413 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State Over 34.5 Team Total (vs UTEP), Saturday at 9 PM ET - This Oregon State team is underrated early in the season and their offense is really good. They have a new head coach Shephard (from the Mike Leach coaching tree) and he has a very good QB and one of the best WR’s in the country. This team loves to throw the ball ranking #1 in the country in pass rate offense. They are facing a UTEP defense that ranks 131st in defensive pass success rate and they have allowed opposing QB’s to complete 67% of their passes (117th nationally). The Miners have already had 50+ put on them twice this year vs Michigan and Oklahoma, neither of which are great offensively. In fact, Michigan has scored a total of 30 points in their other 2 games (not vs UTEP) and Oklahoma has scored a total of 24 points in their other 2 games. That’s how shaky this UTEP defense has been. Oregon State’s offense has already faced 2 defenses light years better than this UTEP stop unit and put up over 400 yards on both (Texas Tech & Houston). Last week they scored 52 points on 7.5 YPP vs Montana who is a top 5 team in FCS. Weather will be perfect for the passing game with light winds and no precipitation. We like the Beavers to get to at least 35 points here.

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Saturday’s Free Winner: Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Game 369.

8:00 PM PST/11:00 PM EST.

I’m going to keep this breakdown just like me… very short and extremely sweet (lol). Very simply, I feel Washington shouldn’t be laying better than a touchdown in this matchup. Sure, they have won all three of their games this season thus far. But they have failed to cover all three as well. It seems the odds makers are overvaluing the Huskies big-time. Minnesota, who are 2-1 both straight up and against the spread this season, and going back a bit, they have covered five of their last six outings. The Big Ten is a very tough conference. And let me be even more sincere, no one gives the Golden Gophers a chance in hell of winning the Conference. But one thing they can do is hang in with tough teams. So far this season they are posting over 37.7 PPG with a strong passing attack and a solid defense yielding just 17.3 PPG. Yes, once again Washington looks like they’re going to have an aerial assault. But they have very little ground game to speak of which makes their offense very one-dimensional. I will give their defense some credit yielding just 13.3 PPG, and snagging five takeaways. The one thing that gives Minnesota an advantage here is they have no pressure on them. Nobody expects them to do too much this season. However, the Huskies have enormous pressure, and have a couple of tough opponents on deck as they face the Trojans on the road next week then the Hawkeyes at home. Who knows if they may be in a little bit of a look a look ahead spot or even take their foot off the gas a bit here. I just think this is way too many points to give a team that that can cover the spread. Take the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Thank you.

*Free Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack lost in the most heartbreaking way last weekend. I've never seen a game end like their loss to Vanderbilt. 

NC State's offense is much better than their defense. The Wolfpack defense ranks 116th in PPA/pass allowed and 123rd in PPA/rush allowed. Appalachian State is likely to have success on offense. The Mountaineers have a good QB in Singleton and they are 21st offensively in PPA/pass for the season.

App State should care plenty about playing a bigger named opponent from their home state. The Mountaineers defense though hasn't been tested this year. They have played ECU (much weaker offensively this year), Charlotte (awful), and Maine (weak FCS team). 

C.J Bailey and company should be able to put up quite a few points on this App State defense too.

Take the over. 

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FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday night is with the Troy Trojans plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies. Troy (2-1) had won their first two games of the season before a 27-17 loss at Missouri as a 27.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Trojans suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road. Utah State (0-3) remained winless after their 33-0 loss at Utah as a 26.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after losing three or more games in a row. Take Troy plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s 23 of 32 (72%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays and 19 of 24 (79%) football run began his day — and now he furthers his 5 of 7 (71%) College Football run and his 7 of 11 (64%) TOTALS TEAR in football with the Troy-Utah State O/U winner on the CBS Sports Network at 7:30 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

Scoring has been way up so far in the SEC. It certainly has been up for both these teams. I am going to ride that. The Crimson Tide are averaging 47.7 points a game. They have scored 50 points against Florida State and 45 versus Kentucky, who just held Texas A&M to 21 points. South Carolina has only two takeaways.

The Gamecocks are playing faster under new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. This new attack has been a plus for talented South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who had a very disappointing season last year.

South Carolina ranks in the top 10 in yards gained per game. Alabama's defense can be vulnerable to big plays. 

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: LSU -8.5

PSP Data Driven 1* White Sox -1.5.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Rockies are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.

Minnesota sits plus-10 in Seattle on a first conference Saturday that starts when most of the Midwest is already in bed. Washington is 3–0 and laying a touchdown-plus at home. The Gophers are 2–1 with a 59–7, a 13–38, and a 41–7 on the sheet. That 13–38 against Mississippi State is the tape people will use to hammer the Huskies. The rest of the card is why the hook still looks like work.

Seventeen meetings. Minnesota 10–7. Last one was Oct. 1, 1977 in Minneapolis: Gophers 19, Huskies 17. Combined 36. No conference chapter until Saturday. No Seattle chapter since Oct. 2, 1976, when Washington dropped them 38–7. The building series is 4–4. Washington owns the last two in Husky Stadium — 38–7 in ’76 and 24–21 in ’58. Fifty-year-old home wins. Ten points in 2026 is chalk tax for a logo and a late kick, not a live series.

Washington is scoring 29.3 and allowing 13.3. Minnesota is scoring 37.7 and allowing 17.3. Those Gopher points are Eastern Illinois and Akron juice. The Huskies are 0–3 ATS laying double-digit numbers. Kick is 11 p.m. ET, 8 p.m. local. Minneapolis body clock, two time zones, first Big Ten Saturday on the coast. Public will smash minus-10 because Washington is unbeaten and FOX is on. That is how plus-10 gets to the window looking like a prayer. The 10–7 ledger and the 0–3 ATS tape are why it is a ticket.

You are not fading the Huskies to lose. You are fading them to cover a full score after a 49-year gap on a late window. 27–24 cashes. 24–17 cashes. 20–17 Minnesota is the gift.

Bet Minnesota plus the number as a road underdog of 9.5 to 11 after a series gap of 40-plus years.
All-time series: Minnesota 10-7. Last meeting 19–17. Seattle split 4-4. (+3.0 unit$, ROI=27.3%)

Bet the dog in first conference games kicking after 10 p.m. ET when the visitor crossed two time zones.
Late window, West Coast, Midwest roster. That hook has lived closer to a field goal than two scores. (+4.1 unit$, ROI=19.7%)

Bet against a 3–0 home favorite of 9.5 to 11 that is 0–3 ATS laying double digits.
The 0–3 ATS tape is on the card. Ten is the tax, not the lock.

Play: Minnesota +10.

My selection is on Tulsa plus the points over Arkansas at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for Arkansas following back-to-back blowout losses at Utah and at home against Georgia. While the Razorbacks will certainly be taking a step down in class on Saturday, I think Tulsa can put them on 'upset' alert. Note that the Golden Hurricane are 3-0 to start the season (2-1 ATS). Many of the players involved in last year's road 'upset' win over Oklahoma State remain on the team and I'm confident they can take this non-conference road tilt down to the wire at the very least. It won't take much for the Razorbacks fans that do show up to the game to turn on their team as things have gone horribly wrong for the program as a whole in recent years. Tulsa wants to get back to a Bowl game this year and while its start is encouraging, it needs to keep its foot on the gas with even tougher games ahead on the AAC road. Take Tulsa (8*).

Our selection is on the Houston Astros to defeat the Athletics on Saturday at 9:40pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Houston will start Hayden Wesneski -- He has had a very solid year when he's been available this season.

The Astros are tied with Texas with two games remaining (have the tiebreaker). Losing isn't an option.

The Athletics will start Jack Perkins -- He is 1-7 and has a 7.05 earned run average in home games.

The A's are winning just 36.4% of their game this season when playing as a home underdog.

We're on Houston.

AAA Sports

1* Free Pick on Commanders +7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

HUGE Sunday 5 big NFL Plays including the TOP Red Zone side, early 6*, Unsurpassed Totals Play, Sunday night Football and our Game 1 WNBA Playoff systems and Final Game 162 MLB Plays.   NFL Play below
 
The NFL 3* Power system comp play today is on the Tennessee Titans plus the points at 1 eastern as Rob notes that week 3 or less home favorites of 4 or less like the Giants are 0-12 straight up and to the spread since 1990 if they are off a road dog loss and had less than 55 yards rushing, vs an opponent like the Titans that has more than 80 yards rushing. The Giants are on short rest here off the MNF Blowout loss to the Rams. NY lost QB Jackson Dart and now have to go with Turnover prone Winston. The Titans lost a close one in Philly last week and are a live dog here. Play on Tennessee today. GL Rob V-
 
SU: 0-12 ( Ag NYG)
ATS: 0-12 
 
Sep 08, 1991 - Sun 2 1991 Bengals Oilers home 0-0 0-6 7-7 0-17 7-30 -2.0 51.0 -23 -25.0 -14.0 -19.5 5.5 L L U 0
Sep 14, 1997 - Sun 3 1997 Giants Ravens home 0-7 12-7 8-0 3-10 23-24 -2.5 44.0 -1 -3.5 3.0 -0.25 3.25 L L O 0
Sep 26, 2004 08:36 Sun 3 2004 Dolphins Steelers home 0-3 0-0 0-3 3-7 3-13 -1.0 33.0 -10 -11.0 -17.0 -14.0 -3.0 L L U 0
Sep 18, 2005 04:05 Sun 2 2005 Cardinals Rams home 3-7 3-3 3-7 3-0 12-17 -1.0 44.5 -5 -6.0 -15.5 -10.75 -4.75 L L U 0
Sep 25, 2005 01:02 Sun 3 2005 Bills Falcons home 3-7 10-10 3-0 0-7 16-24 -2.5 37.0 -8 -10.5 3.0 -3.75 6.75 L L O 0
Sep 20, 2009 01:00 Sun 2 2009 Chiefs Raiders home 3-0 0-3 0-3 7-7 10-13 -2.0 39.0 -3 -5.0 -16.0 -10.5 -5.5 L L U 0
Sep 14, 2014 01:04 Sun 2 2014 Giants Cardinals home 0-10 7-0 7-0 0-15 14-25 -2.0 41.5 -11 -13.0 -2.5 -7.75 5.25 L L U 0
Sep 15, 2014 08:31 Mon 2 2014 Colts Eagles home 7-3 10-3 3-14 7-10 27-30 -3.0 53.0 -3 -6.0 4.0 -1.0 5.0 L L O 0
Sep 25, 2016 01:02 Sun 3 2016 Bengals Broncos home 7-3 7-13 0-0 3-13 17-29 -3.5 42.0 -12 -15.5 4.0 -5.75 9.75 L L O 0
Sep 26, 2016 08:30 Mon 3 2016 Saints Falcons home 7-7 10-21 8-10 7-7 32-45 -3.0 54.0 -13 -16.0 23.0 3.5 19.5 L L O 0
Sep 15, 2019 01:00 Sun 2 2019 Bengals Fortyniners home 7-14 3-10 0-10 7-7 17-41 -1.0 46.0 -24 -25.0 12.0 -6.5 18.5 L L O 0
Sep 25, 2022 04:25 Sun 3 2022 Seahawks Falcons home 10-10 10-7 3-10 0-0 23-27 -1 42 -4 -5 8 1.5 6.5 L L O 0
 
Sep 27, 2026 01:00 Sun 3 2026 Giants Titans home - - - - - -2.5 38.5

Chip’s NFL FAB-5 of Best Bet Winners

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Chip’s FREE NFL Winner

Seattle at Washington 1:00 ET

Foreskins (+) over Seahawks - These two met last November in Washington and it wasn’t even close as Seattle was up 28-0 before the half and cruised to a 38-14 romp. QB’s Jayden Daniels and Sam Darnold were matched-up in that contest whereas this Sunday, veteran back-up Marcus Mariota will get the start for the DC boys. As it appears from what we have seen thus far with the Super Bowl champions in beast mode the only way they do not run away with this game is if Darnold on his return is rusty and or the Seahawks are generally disinterested. It’s a big deal to host the defending Champion and the home side will be ready. Take WASHINGTON!  5

Seahawks -7

Seattle’s defense is the difference for me here. The Seahawks have allowed just 17 points through two games, and now they draw Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels sidelined. That’s a tough assignment against a Seattle front that should control the line of scrimmage. Drew Lock has also done exactly what you want from a backup, including three TD passes last week, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains a matchup problem. Seattle has won 15 of its last 16 road games, so traveling east doesn’t scare me much. Washington has too many problems to solve against one of the league’s best defenses. Lay the touchdown. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the SEAHAWKS ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

WEEK 4 CFB / WEEK 3 NFL! 437-374 54% +2503 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s plays up soon. A BIG 5× Play Card is up for NFL Week 3, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”