Last updated: September 21, 2026 11:01 am
Looking for free MLB picks today? Our expert handicappers deliver daily baseball predictions, best bets, and analysis on every matchup on the board.
Whether you want expert advice on moneylines, run lines, or over/under totals, our free baseball picks page is updated daily to give you MLB insights you can trust.
While these aren't always our strongest plays, those are available on the premium picks page, our free MLB picks show you the same research-drive process we use to identify value and beat the books.
Today's Best Free MLB Picks
Brandon Lee
Monday's Free MLB Pick
PLAY ON: Orioles -106
Steve Janus
1* Free Sharp Play on Tigers -140
Alex Smart
Trends, Sharp Plays & Props for Monday, September 21, 2026
(Getaway-night hangover, three games, a 7.5 in Baltimore, and Oracle sitting at 8 like a September night is supposed to)
Sunday already paid a few of the clean ones. Monday shrinks to three. Night baseball. A 7.5 at Camden. An 8 at Comerica. An 8 at Oracle. Do not invent a 15-game card. The number is talking in two spots. The rest is filler.
League-Wide Vibes So Far (Late September 2026)
Home clubs still hanging around 54 percent. Favorites still cashing in the mid-50s. Scoring still lives in the 4.3–4.7 neighborhood unless Colorado is involved. Colorado is not involved. Monday slates get thin. Night games. A 7.5 in Baltimore. That is how the board gets honest.
Bet under 8 on Monday night slates with three games or fewer.
That spot since 2025: 11-6 (64.7%) with an average total of 7.8. (+4.2 unit$, ROI=22.4%)
Bet home clubs in September games posted 7.5 when both starters sit in the mid-3s to low-4s.
That spot since 2025: 14-9 (60.9%). (+3.8 unit$, ROI=15.1%)
The Games That Actually Matter
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (6:35 ET)
Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65) vs Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11). Blue Jays 77-79. Orioles 75-81. Total 7.5. Baltimore -110 to -112. This is the lowest clean number on the card. Camden in September with two righties is a grind, not a track meet. Do not get cute fading a pick’em because Yesavage has been off the board. The 7.5 is the ticket.
My Plays:
• UNDER 7.5
• Orioles ML
• Team Prop: Blue Jays Team Total Under 3.5
• Player Props: Baz Over 4.5 K
Bet under 7.5 in Orioles home games posted 7 to 7.5 in September.
The Under’s record since 2025: 9-4 (69.2%) with an average over/under of 7.4. (+4.4 unit$, ROI=30.8%)
Bet the home side in a September pick’em when both clubs sit under .500.
Two 75-win clubs. 7.5 total. Home gets the last at-bat. (+2.1 unit$, ROI=16.4%)
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers (6:40 ET)
DJ Herz vs River Ryan. Nationals 73-83. Tigers 73-83. Total 8. Detroit -150 to -156. Two arms coming back onto the card. Comerica in September with an 8 is how 8 gets tested. The juice on Detroit is the tax for playing at home, not a lock.
My Plays:
• UNDER 8
• Tigers ML if you cannot live without a side
• Leave -1.5
• Player Props: Herz Over 4.5 K
Bet under 8 in Tigers home games in September when the total opens 8 to 8.5.
That spot since 2025: 8-5 (61.5%) with an average total of 8.1. (+2.4 unit$, ROI=16.8%)
Bet against laying -150 or more on a .500-ish club in a three-game Monday.
Same record. Same September. The number is fat for the spot. (+1.6 unit$, ROI=14.2%)
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants (9:45 ET)
Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.74) vs Blade Tidwell. Twins 73-83. Giants 64-92. Total 8. Minnesota -118. Oracle at night with an 8 is the West Coast version of Baltimore. Minnesota is the better roster on paper. Better does not always mean 8–2 by the bay. If you play this game, take the 8 and leave the fancy run line.
My Plays:
• UNDER 8
• Twins ML
• Twins -1.5 only if you get plus juice
• Player Props: Matthews Over 5.5 K
Bet under 8 in Giants home night games posted 7.5 to 8.5.
Oracle, September, night. That is how 8 gets honest. Since 2025: 10-6 (62.5%) with an average total of 8.0. (+3.2 unit$, ROI=18.2%)
Bet Minnesota on the road when the total is 8 and the home club sits under 70 wins.
64-92 does not become a dog-killer because it is Monday. (+1.8 unit$, ROI=15.6%)
Quick Hits
• Monday night = lower-scoring lean. No Coors. No 11.
• Do not lay -156 on Detroit if you can live with the 8.
• A 7.5 in Baltimore is the cleanest total on the board.
• An 8 at Oracle is the quiet hammer of the late window.
• Plus money in San Francisco is the dog of the night if you need one.
Smart Money — Top 5 Recommended Bets Monday
Under 7.5, Blue Jays at Orioles — lowest total, September night.
Under 8, Twins at Giants — Oracle night, 8.
Orioles ML vs Toronto — pick’em, last at-bat.
Under 8, Nationals at Tigers — two rusty arms, Comerica.
Twins ML at San Francisco — better club, fair price.
Little Prop Parlay: Baz Over 4.5 K + Matthews Over 5.5 K + Herz Over 4.5 K.
September baseball is part pennant math, part hoping the bullpen you trusted does not spontaneously combust. Always check final pitchers. Things change fast. Shop the number.
Enjoy the games, bet the tickets that pay, and may that 7.5 in Baltimore hold up long enough to start the Monday card clean.
Nick Parsons
This is a FREE PLAY on the OVER.
Toronto is three games back of the final Wild Card spot with six games remaining. The Jays essentially need to win almost all of their remaining games, while also getting outside help.
The Orioles are five games back.
This is the second to last series for each team, and I believe each will be playing aggressively on the bases to get any advantage they can.
Trey Yesavage is 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA for Toronto, but he's coming off the 15-day DL to make his first start since underdoing minor surgery in August. He's only expected to take on about 50 pitches, as well, this evening, before handing the ball to Spencer Miles.
Orioles' starter Shane Baz is 6-15 with a 4.11 ERA, and he was lifted early from his last outing after taking a come-backer on his elbow against the Mets last Tuesday.
He's been shaky of late, as well, surrendering eight runs on 13 hits with a 7:3 K:BB in his past two starts.
I'm expecting TONS OF RUNS; consider the OVER.
Good luck, NP
Kenny Walker
Free Pick on Giants +107
Why Trust Our Free Baseball Predictions?
The MLB season provides a golden opportunity. Add to your winnings from basketball, and increase your bankroll for football! What better way to do that than with free sports picks from MLB experts who specialize in baseball.
Here at Boyd’s Bets, we have compiled a group of the best baseball handicappers in the world. We have been in the business for nearly 25 years and have a history of full transparency.
That means we post accurate, timestamped odds. We keep detailed records of all the picks our handicappers put into our system.
And we vet our experts to make sure that only the cream of the crop make our roster. We work hard to put together a list of tipsters you can trust, and then we make sure they work to keep that trust.
Other sites make up the odds as they go to inflate their win percentages. We take great pride in making sure our experts use the same baseball lines that regular bettors get.
How We Handicap MLB Games
You haven’t bet on baseball before? Do you want to get started? Good, then we recommend taking a moment to read our tips for betting on MLB games. The article covers all the different types of wagers and odds you will come across.
We also put together a guide for handicapping baseball. It is a must for anyone who is trying to bet on baseball and be successful at it. This page gives you the information you need to beat the books. You will learn everything from parlay strategies to underdog systems.
The key to handicapping baseball is the starting pitchers. Ace versus ace games play out much differently than when teams are forced to use a spot starter or a bullpen game.
Our experts dig into recent form, strikeout-to-walk ratios, pitch counts, home/road splits, and more to evaluate who has the edge on the mound. Beyond just the starters, they look at bullpen strength and usage. If teams are coming off multiple extra-inning games or have overworked relievers, they are going to be vulnerable to giving up a late lead.
You can’t just look at arms, though; offense is needed to put runs on the board. We look at lineup matchups, platoon splits, and situational hitting stats. Ballpark factors also come into play. When you add in weather, travel schedules, and momentum, a complete picture starts coming together. By weighing all of these factors together, our handicappers can spot value and deliver expert MLB predictions you can trust.
Don’t hesitate to contact us via email at jimmy@boydsbets.com. We would be more than happy to take a few moments out of our day to answer any questions that you might have.
FAQ
Are free MLB picks profitable?
Yes, free MLB picks can be profitable, especially when they come from experienced handicappers who use data and matchup analysis to find value. While they may not always be the strongest plays on a card, free baseball picks provide a transparent look at the same process used to generate premium selections. Bettors who consistently shop for the best line and manage their bankroll properly can turn them into long-term profit.
Where can I find MLB best bets tonight?
You can find MLB best bets tonight right here on BoydsBets, where our experts post free baseball picks every day during the season in the table above. Each pick is time-stamped, linked to the odds used, and supported with analysis. For even stronger plays, check our premium MLB picks, which highlight the handicappers’ top bets for tonight’s action.
What’s the difference between free and premium MLB picks?
The free MLB picks are posted daily to showcase expert analysis and provide bettors with value plays they can use immediately. Premium picks, on the other hand, are the strongest selections on a handicapper’s card and are backed by guarantees and deeper analysis. Free picks are a great way to follow along, while premium picks give you access to a handicapper’s very best bets.
Who are the best MLB handicappers to follow?
The best MLB handicappers to follow are those with a proven track record of winning seasons, transparent records, and a disciplined approach to money management. On BoydsBets, you’ll find multiple experts with years of experience breaking down pitching matchups, bullpen usage, and situational stats. Following consistent, professional handicappers ensures you’re getting analysis that’s data-driven and designed for long-term success. We have long-term trends and this season’s leaderboards here for you to track who the best are.
