Free College Football Picks & Expert Predictions Against the Spread

Wyoming -7.5

Locking this in early.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Purdue at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Boilermakers are coming off consecutive 'upset' wins over Illinois and Minnesota and are being asked to lay points against the reeling Huskies on Friday. Washington is likely going to be without QB Demond Williams but I don't know if that's as big of a deal as it's being made out to be as he has struggled mightily this season. Backup QB Elijah Brown performed well in mop-up duty against Iowa last week and has starting experience from his time spent with Stanford. I look for the Huskies defense to bounce back here after an embarrassing performance at home against a good Iowa team last week. Note that Washington had held its first five opponents to 27 points or less prior to that 41-24 beatdown. Purdue has played well defensively over the last couple of games but I do wonder if it's sustainable. This is the same team that got torn to shreds by UCLA and Notre Dame earlier in the season (I realize Washington's offense isn't close to being at that level this season). Take Washington (8*).

Saturday's Free CFB Pick

PLAY ON: Florida State +21.5 

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Friday 10-16-26

UNDER 55 1/2 Memphis/Tulane

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Central Michigan +7

The Key: Western Michigan beat Central Michigan 24-21 last season in a game that decided which team would be going to the MAC Championship Game.  The Broncos went on to win the title.  The Chippewas have not forgotten and will be hungry for revenge at home this time around.  And catching a full TD with the Chippewas at home is a nice price.  Both teams feature run-heavy offenses and this is expected to be a low-scoring game so all the points we get are even more valuable.  Central Michigan has been impressive at home this year going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS including blowout wins over Wyoming by 14 and Akron by 24.  WMU hasn't been able to get margin on the road going 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS.  The Broncos only beat lowly Rice by 7 and lowly Buffalo by 3 in their last 2 road games.  They also lost by 25 at home to Boise State.  WMU gave up 158 rushing yards to Monmouth, 209 to Rice and 173 to Boise State.  CMU rushed for 339 yards on Wyoming and 332 yards on Akron.  Take Central Michigan.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Virginia Tech -9

Georgia Tech is coming off a big 28-25 upset win over Duke as 4.5-point home dogs last week.  But in that win they lost star RB Justice Haynes, who has rushed for 462 yards and 3 TD this season.  Now they have to go on the road and face a pissed off Virginia Tech team that gave away their last two games.  They lost by 2 to Pitt despite outgaining them by 204 yards.  They then lost on the road at Cal last week, a place that has proven to be very tough to play for these ACC title contenders over the last couple seasons.  Now the Hokies return home to Lane Stadium, which is one of the better home-field advantages in the country.  Georgia Tech previously lost to Colorado at home, and that loss looks real bad now.  They lost by 21 to Tennessee, a SEC team that is down a few notches this season.  And they lost by 7 at Stanford, which is getting blown out by everyone else.  The win over Duke doesn't look that great either with Duke playing such a soft schedule leading into that game.  I expect the Hokies to handle the Yellow Jackets by double-digits.  Give me Virginia Tech.

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Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football in my view. But he's not going to be the main story here.

Instead it's going to be Stephen Daley, Mario Landino, Tyrique Tucker and Tobi Osunsami. These are Indiana's defensive linemen. They are the keys to the Hoosiers upsetting the Buckeyes.

Indiana has the third most sacks in the country. Ohio State has injuries to its offensive line. The Hoosiers rank 5th in scoring defense allowing only 11.8 points per game and have the seventh-best run defense in the nation.

As we learned last season, it is a mistake to underestimate Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers had five sacks when they defeated the Buckeyes, 13-10, in last year's Big Ten Championship Game.

Julian Sayin is a Heisman Trophy candidate although Smith is the likely winner at this point. But Indiana has a big time passer, too, in Josh Hoover. He has completed 68.2% of his passes for 17 touchdowns. Ohio State does not generate a strong pass rush. Hoover is most dangerous when he has a clean pocket.

Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh provide Hoover with one of the best wide receiver tandems in the country.

 UCLA is laying 2.5–3 at home against a 4-1 Wisconsin team on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl, with the total sitting in the low-to-mid 40s. The number has been short and relatively stable in that range. Wisconsin is the better ATS side this season, and a short home favorite against a team already 4-1 is the tax. The points are the work.

 Wisconsin sits at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten), averaging 31.6 points while allowing 16.6. The Badgers have been efficient on both sides of the ball (6.2 yards per play on offense, strong defensive numbers), with a perfect red-zone scoring rate and solid control in recent wins. They opened with a loss to Notre Dame but have since reeled off four straight victories, including a 24-20 road win at Penn State and a 31-3 home win over Michigan State. Wisconsin is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 on the total. Their defense has limited opponents to roughly 16–17 points per game, and the offense has been balanced enough to stay in games without relying on explosive variance.

UCLA is 5-0 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked around No. 12, averaging 39.2 points while allowing 18.0. The Bruins have covered in every game so far (5-0 ATS) and have wins over California, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, and a 17-15 road upset at Oregon as double-digit underdogs. Their offense has been productive, particularly on the ground (over 1,200 rushing yards), but the quarterback situation is a major variable: Nico Iamaleava left the Oregon game with injuries and is expected to be limited or out, elevating Ty Dieffenbach or another option. UCLA’s defense has been opportunistic and strong in key spots, though the Oregon win was a tight, low-scoring grind. They are 3-2 on the total.

Power ratings and models generally view the teams as close on a neutral field, with UCLA’s undefeated record and recent cover streak supporting a short home favorite. Wisconsin’s defensive metrics and recent ATS success against quality opponents keep the number tight.

This is a physical Big Ten road test at the historic Rose Bowl. Wisconsin’s defense, which has limited scoring and yards effectively, faces a UCLA offense that has been efficient but may operate without its primary quarterback. The Bruins’ rushing attack and opportunistic defense will try to control tempo and create short fields. Wisconsin’s ability to stay balanced and avoid turnovers (they have been solid in that department) gives them a path to keep the game within a field goal or force a push/cover scenario.

The total in the low-to-mid 40s reflects both defenses’ ability to limit scoring. UCLA has trended over in some games but under in others, including the Oregon win; Wisconsin has mixed results but has shown it can grind. Weather at the Rose Bowl looks warm and clear. Any confirmed absence of Iamaleava tilts the matchup further toward Wisconsin’s physical style and the points.

UCLA leads the all-time series roughly 7-4. The teams have not met since 2000, when Wisconsin won 21-20. Wisconsin has taken the last three meetings overall (1993, 1998, and 2000). Games have tended to be competitive, with Wisconsin never winning by more than seven points in the series. Road games have been close historically, and the short number this week fits the pattern of tight contests rather than blowouts.

Key trends include Wisconsin’s success in lower-scoring or one-score environments against UCLA, and the general tendency for short favorites in Big Ten games to face cover pressure when the underdog has a strong defensive profile and recent form. The sample is small given the long gap between meetings, but the competitive nature of past results supports the idea that a 2.5–3 point home favorite is not a large edge.

UCLA is the undefeated home team with the cover streak and the higher scoring average, which is why the number has settled at a short 2.5–3 rather than something larger. Wisconsin’s 4-1 record, defensive strength, recent ATS success (including a road cover at Penn State), and the fact that short home favorites against teams already 4-1 carry a built-in tax make the points the side the number is arguing for. The quarterback uncertainty for UCLA adds another layer that favors the underdog staying within the number.

If the juice on Wisconsin +3 stays reasonable, the points with the team that has the better recent ATS profile and a defense capable of keeping the game tight is the lean. Shop the number (it has moved between 2.5 and 3.5 in spots) and monitor the UCLA quarterback situation through the week. In a Big Ten matchup with both teams playing well, the short home favorite is the tax; the points are the work.

Luke Fickell is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Wisconsin this season, including a 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS stretch after the Notre Dame loss, with the last two covers coming as a double-digit home favorite against Eastern Michigan and as a short road underdog at Penn State.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS overall and has already covered as a 9.5-point road underdog at Penn State. The Badgers are 1-0 ATS in their only true road game this season and are coming off a bye after a 31-3 home win over Michigan State.

UCLA is 5-0 ATS and is laying a short number at home after a ranked road win. Teams that are 5-0 ATS and coming off a ranked road win have covered less often when the next number is a field goal or less against a team that is already 3-2 ATS.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four games, including the road upset at Penn State. The Badgers are getting points on the road against a short home favorite that the market has already moved toward the visitor.

The number opened UCLA -3 and is now -2.5. Wisconsin is the side that has already covered as a road underdog this year. UCLA is the side that has not been asked to lay a short number after a ranked road win. That is the spot.

Bet the road dog of 3 or fewer in a Big Ten game against a home favorite that just lost its starting quarterback.
Road dogs of 3 or fewer against home favorites with a backup or first-time starter at quarterback (since the early 2000s): 27-14 ATS (65.9%). At -110, 27 wins and 14 losses is +11.5 unit$, ROI=28.0%.

Bet Wisconsin as a road underdog of 3 or fewer.
Wisconsin’s ATS record as a road underdog of 3 or fewer in conference games (last 15 years available): 8-4 (66.7%). At -110, that is +3.3 unit$, ROI=27.5%.

Bet against a short home favorite of 3 or fewer that is missing its starting quarterback.
Home favorites of 3 or fewer missing their starting quarterback for the first time that season (since 2005): 11-22 ATS (33.3%). At -110, 11 wins and 22 losses is -12.1 unit$, ROI=-36.7%