Matt Fargo Sports Handicapper Review & Free Picks

This is a play on the COLORADO AVALANCHE as part of our NHL Thursday Hat Trick. New Jersey has gotten off to the best start of any team in the NHL as it is the only team yet to suffer a defeat although it has played only four games. The Devils opened the season with a 5-2 win over Edmonton which took place in Europe and they returned home for three more wins including a pair of shutouts. Goalie Keith Kinkaid has been phenomenal with a 1.00 GAA and .961 save percentage but this is not going to last forever and he is in a tough spot here. Colorado opened the season with a 3-1 record, averaging 4.3 gpg in the process but the offense has managed only two goals in their last two games, both of which resulted in losses including a 3-2 loss against the Rangers in a shootout. Special teams has been the strength of the Avalanche as they have converted six of 20 power play opportunities but the penalty kill has been the real force, allowing only two goals in 29 man down situations and that 93.1 percent penalty kill in second best in the NHL. Here, we play against team against the moneyline after allowing two goals or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after losing two consecutive games in overtime or in a shootout. This situation is 71-43 (62.3 percent) since 1996. 8* (5) Colorado Avalanche

This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS as part of our NHL Thursday Hat Trick. Philadelphia improved to 3-3 on the season but it was not easy as it had to defeat Florida in a shootout to secure its first home win of the season after losing to San Jose and Vegas on home ice. The Flyers offense has been hit or moss as they have scored 18 goals in their three wins but just four goals in their three losses and after what happened to Columbus in its last game, Philadelphia is here at the wrong time. The Flyers are 0-6 in their last six games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. The Blue Jackets were crushed 8-2 at Tampa Bay on Saturday so they have had a lot of time to stew over that loss and get things back in order defensively where they allowed just 2.8 gpg in their first four games. The Blue Jackets are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scores five goals or more in their previous game while going 13-3 in their last 16 games playing on three or more days rest. Additionally, we play on favorites against the moneyline after a loss by four goals or more in their previous game going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. This situation is 39-9 (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (4) Columbus Blue Jackets

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS as part of our NHL Thursday Hat Trick. This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Toronto goalie Frederik Anderson and even if he is able to go, he has not been effective this season with a 3.02 GAA and .899 save percentage. He has gone 4-1 thanks to a potent offense behind him as Toronto has averaged 5.4 gpg during its five-game winning streak. The Maple Leafs lead the Eastern Conference with 12 points, three points ahead of both Montreal and Carolina. They are coming off a 4-1 home win over Los Angeles on Monday following a four-game road sweep and in three home games, they are getting outshot 31.3-29.3. It has been a slow start for Pittsburgh as it has lost two straight games in extra time and those were against teams the Penguins had no business losing to. A 3-2 loss to Vancouver in their most recent game was bad as they managed only 28 shots and since putting up 41 shots in their opener, they have averaged only 25 shots per game over their last four games. The Penguins are 9-2 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game and with this being their first game as an underdog, we will grab the value spot in what should be a solid bounce back effort for Pittsburgh. 10* (1) Pittsburgh Penguins

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The bad news for Arkansas St. is that it is 0-2 in the Sun Belt Conference. The good news is that both losses came against Georgia Southern and Appalachian St., the two top teams in the SBC East Division and the Red Wolves reside in the much weaker West Division and if they win out, they will be in the Sun Belt Conference Championship no matter what any other team does. The last two losses were painful in that both were winnable as they lost to the Eagles in the final seconds and against the Mountaineers, the were outgained by just 54 yards but three interceptions and a 3-17 third down conversion rate killed them. The offense is better than what was on display the last two games and they will face one of the worst defenses in the nation as Georgia St. is allowing 491.3 ypg which is No. 119 in the country. The Panthers have allowed 543, 679, 528 and 554 yards in four of their games so if the Red Wolves are to break out, this is the game to do it. They have made some changes on offense as select offensive packages were simplified to boost confidence and to limit excessive thinking. Creating more one-on-one matchups for their offensive skill players, something the Red Wolves have found as their offensive strength, has become prioritized even more. They welcome the Sun Belt's worst scoring offense as the Panthers 22.3 ppg is No. 115 in the country. Georgia St. did put up 46 points against UL-Monroe but has scored no more than 24 points in any of its other five games, averaging just 17.6 ppg. Arkansas St. is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against teams allowing 31 or more while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a home loss. Additionally, we play on home teams after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc last game going up against an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS for our NBA Thursday Star Attraction. The Blazers enter the 2018-19 season with virtually the same rotation and while that means likely not challenging Golden St. and Houston, it does mean they have a chance to repeat in the Northwest Division. 2017-18 was a bittersweet experience for the Blazers, who were left to wonder how far they could go with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum hauling the load since they won the division but were swept in the first round of the playoffs by New Orleans. Portland lost 20 percent of its three-point shooting to free agency but they signed Seth Curry and Nik Stauskas with the former being a real intriguing option as Curry missed most of last season and is a 43.2 percent long range shooter. The Blazers closed last season 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games with this always being a solid home court edge. The public is lining up on the Lakers and why not? LeBron James is now in Los Angeles and they are getting points to what is considered a middling Western Conference team. While the Lakers have potential, it could take this team a while to come together with James trying to work with his new roster. The biggest question is how the young core will work with the signings of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley and JaVale McGee who all have unique personalities. We will take the team that has the better chemistry at this point at a short price. 10* (506) Portland Trail Blazers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Arizona returns home following a two-game roadtrip where it split with San Francisco and Minnesota and looks to grab its first win at State Farm Stadium after starting the season 0-3. The Cardinals did look good in its last two home games, losing to Chicago and Seattle by a combined five points and Thursday presents a good opportunity to get the offense going. Arizona is dead last in the NFL in total offense and second to last in scoring offense but it has faced some strong defenses with four teams ranked at No. 11 or better in total defense and the other two coming in at No. 16 and No. 19. Denver will be the worst defense the Cardinals have faced and by a wide margin. The Broncos are near the bottom in numerous defensive categories and while they have faced the Rams and Chiefs, they have struggled against the rest of the schedule as well. In their last game against Minnesota, the Cardinals may have found something on offense they can use against the Broncos defense. The Cardinals used a hurry-up, no-huddle offense successfully, resulting in their one touchdown on offense in the fourth quarter and quarterback Josh Rosen looked comfortable which is no surprise since he has the on-huddle at UCLA. Their 302 offensive plays are the fewest by any team through that same time span since 2005 so the defense has been on the field for way too long. Despite that, he Arizona defense has not been horrible based on the schedule it has played and it will face a Broncos offense that has been inconsistent this season. The Cardinals are ranked No. 8 in defensive yppl at 5.4 despite being dead last in time of possession percentage and if they could keep that unit off the field, they could be even better. The Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (302) Arizona Cardinals