Matt Fargo Sports Handicapper Review & Free Picks

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CBB Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. TCU is off to a 5-1 start with the one loss coming against Northwestern St. by a point as a 22.5-point favorite at home so we can toss that hiccup away as the Horned Frogs clearly did not come to play. They did come to play after that as the Horned Frogs rolled over California and Iowa to capture the Emerald Coast Classic in Florida and that is more like what we should expect from TCU as it has been tabbed to finish No. 4 in the Big 12 Conference as Jamie Dixon has this team poised to make a run at the conference championship. TCU has four starters back from the team that nearly made it to the Sweet 16 but an overtime loss against No. 1 seed Arizona ended their season and they bring back the most minutes of any team in the conference. The Horned Frogs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Providence has won five of its seven games to open the campaign and it has gone as what has been put in front of them. The five wins all came at home against a bunch of patsies where the Friars were favored by double-digits in all five games and they lost their two games against Miami and St. Louis where they were underdogs on a neutral floor. This is the first true road game for Providence and it is not the easiest of trips and with a rivalry game looming at Rhode Island, the focus might not be full here. The Friars have failed to cover each of their last four games. 10* (690) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CBB Wednesday Ultimate Underdog. Eastern Michigan has been a brutal disappointment this season as after a win over Wayne St. in its opener, the Eagles have lost six straight games but four of those were competitive games decided by seven points or less including games against Michigan and Oakland. What makes this start more disappointing is the fact Eastern Michigan has one of the best young players in the country in Emoni Bates, a future lottery pick, as he is averaging 19.5 ppg and 6.3 rpg on a team that can put up points but needs to get better on the defensive end. Florida International is expected to be one of the worst trams in C-USA as it is picked to finish No. 10 in the 11-team conference. The Panthers are coming off a couple big wins over Stony Brook and Eastern Washington and now the line is inflated because of those recent double-digit wins along with the struggles of Eastern Michigan. The offense has been good but like the Eagles, the defense is an issue as they have allowed 74 or more points in four of their last five games including point totals of 91 and 107 points. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points allowing between 74 and 78 ppg and after two straight wins by 10 points or more going up against teams allowing 78 or more ppg. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1997. 10* (653) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CBB Wednesday Signature Enforcer. Miami has gotten off to a 6-1 start with the lone loss coming against undefeated and No. 23 Maryland in Connecticut and the Hurricanes have won their two games since then including an impressive two-point win at Central Florida on Sunday. They are back home where they are 4-0 with all four being blowout wins by an average of 19 ppg. This will be the biggest home test to date but it not an overly difficult matchup and Miami is catching a great line based on the opponent results. The Hurricanes have been average on both ends and while facing a stout defense, that is skewed based on schedule. The Hurricanes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Rutgers has started 5-1 with the lone loss coming against Temple on a neutral floor which has been its only test of the season. The Scarlet Knights other five games have all been at home and they were favored by at least 13.5 points in all of those games while covering four of those. Of the 363 Division I teams, the Rutgers schedule checks in at No. 356 and while this is considered a possible sleeper team in the Big Ten, we have yet to see what they can do after losing Ron Harper, Jr. and Geo Baker. The Scarlet Knights are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (674) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CBB Game of the Month. Duke opened the season 6-1 that included a pair of wins out west in the PK Legacy before losing to Purdue in the finals and it was not even close as the Blue Devils lost by 19 points against one of the most underrated rosters in the country. Duke shot 36.2 percent from the floor including going just 2-19 from long range against the Boilermakers and now it heads home to face its second straight Big Ten opponent. The Blue Devils are 4-0 at home and have yet to be tested here but the home floor edge is huge for this team in a great bounce back spot. Ohio St. had a successful run at the Maui Invitational as after getting beat handily by San Diego St., the Buckeyes went on to defeat Cincinnati and Texas Tech in the final two rounds to improve to 5-1 on the season. Ohio St. now hits the road for its first true road game of the season and it comes at the wrong time and wrong place. The run in Hawaii gave us some better perspective after opening the season with three straight cupcake wins and the last two games is adding value into this number as people do not seem to be sold on Duke just yet. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games going up against an opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (676) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Revenge Dominator. The Lakers have shown signs of improvement after an awful 2-8 start as they went on a 5-1 run before an implosion on Monday as they blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead against Indiana. Los Angeles is in a good bounce back spot here after the defense allowed 32 fourth quarter points and this unit will take exception to that. The Lakers defense has kept their heads somewhat above water as they are ranked No. 9 or better in all seven defensive shooting categories including No. 3 in defensive shooting efficiency. They also get a boost with the return of Patrick Beverly as he is back from his suspension. The offense has been okay but has been hindered by poor long range shooting which could break out here. Portland is coming off a brutal loss last night as it blew an 18-point lead, getting outscored 36-17 in the fourth quarter to make it two straight losses for the Blazers. They shot 49 percent from long range on Tuesday as they remain a top three team in three-point shooting but will face a tough test here and they have had to rely on their perimeter shooting this season which is a tough way to go about having long-term success. Portland is ranked No. 26 in two-point shooting percentage and is in the bottom half of the league in most other shooting categories including being one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league. Portland is 16-29 ATS in its last 45 games against teams shooting 46 percent or better from the floor. Here, we play on favorites revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 65-27 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (552) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Supreme Annihilator. Sacramento was on a big run with seven straight wins after a 3-5 start but the Kings have dropped their last three games which included two road losses at Atlanta and Boston as healthy underdogs and then dropped their most recent game at home against Phoenix on Monday by five points. They remain a top three offense in efficiency with a 57.1 percent effective field goal percentage thanks to leading the NBA in two-point shooting at 58.8 percent. A lot of this has to do with great transition offense as they are No. 5 in fast break points and No. 4 is assist/turnover ratio. The defense leaves a lot to be desired but they face a middle of the road offense in efficiency. Sacramento is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing a home game this season. Indiana has been one of the bigger surprises in the Eastern Conference as it has improved to 12-8 on the season following a win at the Lakers on Monday as it overcame a 17-point fourth quarter deficit to make it 11 wins in its last 15 games. The majority of those wins have come against some very bad teams as the Pacers schedule is ranked No. 27 in the league and they are No. 24 in the Sagarin Ratings, the lowest mark of any team with a winning record. The Pacers are ranked in the top ten in only one of 14 offensive and defensive shooting categories and that is a No. 87 ranking in defensive two-point shooting percentage. Indiana is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games after playing 2 consecutive road games. Here, we play on teams coming off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road win by three points or less. This situation is 35-13 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (550) Sacramento Kings

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Minnesota had one five straight games to improve to 10-8 after a slow start but it has since lost its last three games and now will have to go on without Karl-Anthony Towns who is out for upward of six weeks with a calf strain but it is not a huge concern as this is still a great roster that can make up for his absence and we always like the angle of the first game played without a go to guy with others getting the opportunity to step up and make a name. The Timberwolves are a game under .500 at home so that along with the Towns news is giving them value here. The numbers have been great with the exception of long range shooting which has kept the efficiency down as Minnesota is No. 3 in offensive two-point percentage and No. 6 in defensive two-point percentage so they are getting quality shots. Memphis has won and covered two straight games including a win at New York which snapped a three-game road losing streak that all resulted in double-digit defeats. Overall, the Grizzlies are just 3-4 over their last seven games as they remain banged up as well with Desmond Bane and his 24.7 ppg remains on the sidelines and Dillon Brooks and his 17.6 ppg is hobbled with a thigh injury and he is questionable for tonight. Looking at the seven shooting categories on both sides, they are ranked No. 19 or worse in half of those and are not ranked higher than No. 10 in any of those and the perimeter defense has struggled which will help the Minnesota outside shooting. Memphis is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games after having won two of their last three games. Here, we play on home underdogs revenging a road loss of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 44-16 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (540) Minnesota Timberwolves