Jimmy Boyd Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

3* HEAVY HITTER on Sky -155

The records suggest Chicago should be a home dog.

The numbers under the hood say otherwise.

Portland is 4-6 over its last 10 with a -9.8 net rating.

Their defense is the problem.

The Fire are giving up 112.9 points per 100 possessions, which is actually worse than Chicago's 110.3 defensive rating over the same span.

The win-loss gap is real, but the efficiency gap isn't.

Now factor in the injuries.

Carla Leite (14.1 PPG, the Fire's leading scorer) is a game-time call with a fresh ankle sprain and would be playing through it if she goes.

Karlie Samuelson is also questionable.

Portland's offense runs through Leite, and Sarah Ashlee Barker plus the bench wing rotation isn't replacing that creation.

The opposition case is loud.

Chicago is 1-9 over its last 10 and lost Rickea Jackson for the season.

That's a real problem, and the -155 isn't a bargain price.

But Chicago still has Skylar Diggins at 14.5 PPG and Kamilla Cardoso at 13.1, and Cardoso is a legitimate matchup nightmare for Megan Gustafson and a depleted Portland frontline.

Rest is the other angle the market is pricing in.

Portland has 7 days off, Chicago has 2.

Long layoffs in the WNBA tend to produce rust, not freshness, especially for a young roster still figuring out rotations.

The Fire turn it over on 23% of possessions.

That's transition offense for Cardoso and Diggins all night.

I like the Sky

1* Free Pick on Fever -8

The Fever and Mercury ran this back on Monday and Indiana won 86-77, a 9-point margin.

Now they play again, same building, with Phoenix in worse shape than they were two nights ago.

Phoenix is missing three rotation players.

Monique Akoa Makani (hamstring), Jovana Nogic (personal), and Sami Whitcomb (long-term) are all out.

Starting forward Natasha Mack is a game-time decision with a foot injury and listed at 50% to play.

That is a top-six rotation player potentially being subtracted from an already thin roster.

The efficiency gap over the last 10 games is real.

Indiana sits at 109.3 offensive rating and 0.54 eFG%.

Phoenix is at 100.4 offensive rating and 0.48 eFG%.

Indiana also plays at a 99.26 pace versus Phoenix at 93.69, and the Fever want this game in transition where the depleted Mercury guard rotation gets exposed.

The opposition case centers on Indiana's 21% turnover rate and the chance that Monday's chippy game (five technicals, a Hines-Allen ejection) creates foul trouble for Clark and Boston.

Fair concern.

But Indiana is 6-4 in the last 10 and Phoenix is 3-7 with a -7.7 net rating.

The talent gap is wide enough that even a sloppy Fever game still gets to 8.

Caitlin Clark (21.3 ppg) and Kelsey Mitchell (20.9 ppg) outscore anything Phoenix can put on the floor without Akoa Makani and Nogic.

The market priced this off Monday's 9-point result and didn't fully bake in the compounding injury news.

I like the Fever

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Brewers/Reds: over 9

The market is pricing this total off Lowder's 4.82 ERA.

That number is hiding the real story.

Reds starter Rhett Lowder has a 5.24 xERA and a .352 xwOBA against.

Hitters are squaring him up.

Half his recent hits have gone for extra bases, and he's walked multiple guys in five straight starts.

His K:BB sits at 17:18 over his last 18.1 innings.

That's not a profile that survives Great American Ball Park.

The Brewers send a real lineup at him.

Yelich, Chourio, Turang, Contreras up top.

Milwaukee is 48-29 for a reason.

Lowder gave up two homers in 5.1 innings his last time out against the Yankees.

The Brewers have the bats to do the same.

Brewers lefty Shane Drohan has the better surface line at 3.40 ERA with a 3.15 xERA, and that's the strongest argument against the Over.

The opposition case leans on Drohan plus a Reds offense that was shut out in back-to-back games.

Here's why it doesn't hold.

Drohan has walked 10 in 23 innings and gone past 5 innings once in his last four starts.

He hands games to the pen early.

Elly De La Cruz is back in the Cincinnati lineup, and shutout streaks like this one end against command-challenged lefties in their home park.

Weather is a non-factor at 78 degrees with a 6 MPH wind.

Park, pitching matchup, and both lineups all point the same direction.

I like the Over

3* HEAVY HITTER on Braves -125

The Braves are 48-30 (.615) and the Padres are 41-37 (.525).

That's a real gap, and the pitching matchup makes it wider.

Braves lefty Martin Perez is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA.

He's been the most consistent piece of this rotation.

He's facing a Padres team that just had Lucas Giolito hit the IL and is scrambling to plug the hole with JP Sears, recalled from Triple-A where he was tagged for an 11.14 ERA in recent starts.

San Diego didn't choose this matchup.

They got forced into it.

That's the spot you want to attack.

The opposition case is real.

The Padres are stacking eight righties against Perez, and Atlanta is rolling out five lefties against Sears the lefty.

The handedness is uncomfortable on both sides.

But Perez has been pitching through left-on-right matchups all year and still owns a sub-3.00 ERA.

Sears hasn't thrown a competitive MLB pitch in 2026 and was getting hit hard at the minor league level.

Those are not equivalent risks.

Acuna being out matters less when the Padres are starting a guy fighting for command.

Lineups don't need to be perfect to score off a Triple-A arm working through nerves at Petco.

Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, and Matt Olson at the top of the order is plenty.

The -125 price is light for a team this much better starting a pitcher this much better.

The market is overweighting yesterday's walk-off and the handedness optics.

I like the Braves

5* NO BRAINER on Mariners/Pirates: over 7

The market is selling Bryan Woo and Braxton Ashcraft as a clean pitching matchup.

The xERAs back that up on the surface: Mariners righty Woo sits at a 3.27 xERA and Pirates righty Ashcraft at 2.99.

That's the strongest case for the under, and I'm not ignoring it.

The problem is both of these guys have shown blow-up gears inside the last three weeks.

Woo got tagged for 7 earned runs in 5 innings against Baltimore on June 11, and gave up 5 earned in 6.1 against Detroit on June 5.

Ashcraft surrendered 6 earned runs in 5 innings to Atlanta on June 6 and 2 earned in 5 to Miami on June 12.

That's not a pristine track record, that's volatility.

Do the math on the surface ERAs.

Woo at 3.94 plus Ashcraft at 3.18 already gets you to 7.12 combined runs across a full nine innings, and that's before either bullpen touches the ball.

The number 7 is already underwater on season averages.

Seattle's lineup is also built to punish Ashcraft.

Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Luke Raley, and Dominic Canzone all hit from the left side and stack the top seven, which is exactly the look you want against a righty.

Weather is a non-factor at 74 degrees with a 4 MPH wind, so this comes down to arms versus bats.

The arms have been too inconsistent to trust at a 7.

Bullpens do the rest.

I like the Over