Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on the Athletics -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The White Sox 'are who we thought they were' - at least so far this season. After a promising 4-5 start, Chicago has now lost eight of its last 10 games to fall to a big league-worst 6-13 on the campaign. Even yesterday, in a game the White Sox led entering the ninth inning, they still couldn't hang on for a run-line cover against the Rays at home. The Athletics couldn't secure the series victory against the Rangers, falling by a 9-6 score yesterday. I like their chances of bouncing back here. Davis Martin has posted middling numbers for the White Sox and what little the A's current hitters have seen of him, they have liked, going a collective 4-for-14 (.286) with an .802 OPS and only two strikeouts compared to four walks. Veteran Aaron Civale will get the nod for the A's. I think this is the type of matchup he can navigate. His early returns have been mixed this season as he owns a terrific 1.72 ERA but a 4.25 FIP, albeit with a solid 0.96 WHIP through 15 2/3 innings of work. The bullpen advantage, while not overwhelming, does go the A's way in this one. The White Sox 'emptied the tank' in that regard yesterday, using six different relievers in a losing effort. All eight of their relievers have worked over the last two days with six of them throwing 20+ pitches. Take the Athletics -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Detroit over Boston at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup. The Red Sox are probably breathing a sigh of relief after they avoided a series sweep in Minnesota with a lopsided victory on Wednesday. They probably would have liked to have been right back on the field yesterday to keep it rolling off that offensive breakout. I think they're going to be in tough in the opener of this series as they send a slow-starting Ranger Suarez to the hill against Case Mize of the Tigers. Suarez will settle in over time I'm sure but for now he owns a 4.49 FIP and 1.47 WHIP through his first three starts with Boston. Like Suarez, Mize is off to a bit of a shaky start to the campaign as well. With that being said, his best outing did come on the road in Arizona and he has been slightly better than his 3.94 ERA indicates as he sports a 3.67 FIP. I do like the Tigers offense a little more than the Red Sox. I'll also point out that the Detroit bullpen is in excellent shape having logged just 16 2/3 innings over the last week (3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with four saves converted and one blown over that stretch). Take Detroit (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

We just saw a high-scoring series between the Angels and Yankees here in the Bronx but I expect a different story to unfold as New York welcomes Kansas City to Yankee Stadium on Friday. Michael Wacha continues to shun 'Father Time' for the Royals as he's off to another terrific start. While the Yankees aren't a favorable matchup for many opposing starting pitchers, Wacha probably welcomes this matchup as he's held current New York hitters to just 20 hits in 130 at-bats (.154) with a .500 OPS. In those 130 at-bats, Yankee hitters have collected just nine extra base hits including only three home runs. Yankees starter Cam Schlittler is doing his best to prove he's no flash in the pan after last year's breakout performance as a rookie. Through four starts this season he has recorded a masterful 0.54 FIP and 0.74 WHIP. He'll face a punchless Royals club that ranks 28th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. There's always a risk of the bullpens blowing up an 'under' bet but I think the early season struggles of these two relief corps' has been properly factored into this total and I'm confident both starters can work fairly deep into the ball game. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay at 6:45 pm et on Friday.

Nick Martinez has bounced around a number of teams over the course of his big league career and has seemingly found a good landing spot with the Rays as he's undefeated through three starts this season. I think he's in tough against the Pirates on Friday, however. Note that while Martinez owns a sparkling 2.16 ERA so far this season, his 4.91 FIP tells a much different story. That latter mark is more consistent with his career numbers as he owns a 4.59 FIP going back to his debut with the Rangers in 2014. Pirates starter Bubba Chandler hasn't gotten off to the start he was probably hoping for following an impressive seven big league appearances last year (2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP). His FIP sits at 5.60 this season, to go along with a 1.57 WHIP. I do think this matchup sets up reasonably well as he catches the Rays coming off a series sweep of the lowly White Sox and in uncharted territory riding a six-game winning streak. Pittsburgh will look to shake off an extra innings defeat against Washington yesterday as it settled for a four-game series split. Note that the Buccos haven't lost consecutive games since opening the season with back-to-back losses against the Mets in New York. As clutch as the Rays have been offensively over the last week, they actually rank 21st in the majors in xwOBA over that stretch, while the Pirates sit in 10th. Pittsburgh is also two spots ahead of Tampa Bay in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

I realize that the presence of veteran left-hander Martin Perez on the mound for the Braves doesn't generate a ton of excitement for casual bettors, but I think he is well-positioned to turn in another solid outing on Friday in Philadelphia. The Braves might just be the best team in baseball right now. They're in the conversation at least. Meanwhile, the Phillies are off to a slow start. Note that Philadelphia ranks 27th in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and 15th in xwOBA over the last seven days. The Braves meanwhile sit top-five in xwOBA over the same stretch. Atlanta will get an opportunity to tee off on Phillies starter Taijuan Walker on Friday. Walker did earn his first victory of the season last time out but through three starts he owns a 6.51 FIP and 1.91 WHIP. That's on the heels of back-to-back dreadful campaigns that saw him log a 6.94 FIP in 2024 and a 5.07 FIP last year. Current Braves hitters are 27-for-89 (.303) with a .892 OPS against Walker. For his part, Perez has posted a 4.07 FIP and 0.91 WHIP through 14 1/3 innings of work this season. Current Phillies hitters have had similar success against Perez that the Braves have had against Walker. I just can't ignore the poor form the Phillies bring to the table offensively right now. It's also worth noting that the Braves bullpen has posted a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with six saves converted and none blown this season. While the Phillies have also been solid in that regard with five converted saves and only one blown, their relief corps has logged a 4.39 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. While it's all hands on deck for the Braves 'pen, the Phillies currently have a pair of relievers on the I.L. Take Atlanta (10*).

Play-In Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Friday.

We missed with the 'under' in the Warriors 126-121 win over the Clippers on Wednesday. That game was played at just as slow of a pace as we expected with the Warriors getting off only 83 field goal attempts and the Clippers hoisting up 86. The problem was, both teams shot the lights out. In fact, the Warriors connected on a blistering 56.6% of their field goal attempts including 46.3% from beyond the arc. I'm not counting on a repeat performance on Friday, however. Phoenix checks in having held four straight and seven of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Suns got off only 79 field goal attempts in their 114-110 loss to the Trail Blazers on Tuesday. You would have to go back eight games to April 1st to find the last time the Warriors allowed an opponent to get off 90+ field goal attempts. The most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 198 points on this floor but that was back on February 5th and has been long-forgotten by most casual bettors. Take the under (10*).