Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

National League Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

NOTE: This play will be 'action' with the Diamondbacks yet to announce their official starter (Zac Gallen is probable).

The Pirates are every bit as much involved in the National League playoff hunt as the Diamondbacks and they're just as hot as well, riding an 8-2 run over their last 10 games. They'll turn to Luis Ortiz on Friday while the D'Backs haven't settled on a starter (at the time of writing) but Zac Gallen looks like the leading candidate.

Ortiz has been quietly effective for the Buccos this season, rewarding them for sticking with him after a disastrous 2023 campaign. Ortiz logged a FIP nearing six last year but has bounced back to post a 3.09 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in north of 70 innings of work this season. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 in his four starts to date. While not bursting with depth, the Pirates bullpen is worth betting on when rested, which is the case here following an off day on Thursday.

If Gallen does get the start for the D'Backs, that serves our purposes just fine. He hasn't been the dominant pitcher we've come to expect this season and Arizona has lost each of his last two home starts and is just 3-5 in his last eight outings overall. He's topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts.

Note that the Pirates have been trending in the right direction offensively, climbing the ladder in terms of weighted on base average over the last 14 and seven days. Arizona was red hot and while still effective at the dish, it has cooled slightly over the last seven and 14 days (according to wOBA). Arizona did bolster its bullpen by adding A.J. Puk in a trade yesterday but that only further illustrates that its relief corps is an issue. Puk owns a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

This is a pitching mismatch as the Cubs trot out potential trade chip Kyle Hendricks against Brady Singer of the Royals.

Hendricks may be an attractive piece for a contending team looking for another experienced arm for the stretch run but that's about it. He's been awful this season, logging a 5.43 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. The Cubs have lost 14 of his 18 starts this season. You would have to go all the way back to mid-April to find the last one-run loss in that bunch so we're not all that concerned with laying the extra run with the Royals here.

Singer has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign, sporting a 3.86 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the White Sox. The Cubs aren't the White Sox but they haven't proven to be much better at the plate, especially lately as they check in ranked just one spot higher (in 29th place) in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday.

We have to take a shot with the red hot Rockies on Friday as they head to San Francisco to face a Giants club that is reeling right now.

San Francisco ranks firmly in the bottom-third of the majors in weighted on base average over the last 30, 14 and 7 days. In other words, we're not talking about a short-term slump.

While Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has had his share of previous struggles against current Giants hitters, the fact is he just silenced them in a start last week and Colorado checks in a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts. We'll ride the hot hand here.

Giants starter Kyle Harrison was once pegged as one of their top pitching prospects but we're talking about a guy that has now made 24 career big league starts and has failed to make any sort of real progress, logging a 4.49 FIP and 1.29 WHIP.

The Rockies rank top-three in baseball in wOBA over the last 14 and 7 days (at the time of writing). At this generous price, we can't pass them up. Take Colorado (8*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on Chicago over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

This price makes little sense when you consider how poorly the Mariners are playing right now. Yes, George Kirby will get the start and he is a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter in his third big league campaign. However, the M's have lost each of his last four starts. As well as Kirby continues to pitch, he's receiving little run support from Seattle's fledgling offense.

The White Sox will be happy to be back home after getting swept by the Rangers in a four-game series in Arlington. Rookie starter Drew Thorpe has been a bright spot in an otherwise dim season in Chicago. Since allowing eight earned runs in his first two major league starts, Thorpe has settled down, holding his last five opponents to just five earned runs in 30 1/3 innings of work. Take Chicago.

Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary minus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The RedBlacks are what I consider to be a 'paper tiger' as we wind down the month of July. Ottawa is off to a 4-2 start and sits just two points behind the first-place Alouettes in the East Division. With that being said, the RedBlacks four victories have come against the Blue Bombers, Tiger-Cats and Elks (two wins). By most metrics, those are the league's three worst teams so far this season. Also keep in mind, after scoring a touchdown less than four minutes into their game against the lowly Elks last week, they never reached the end zone again the rest of the way, narrowly hanging on for a 20-14 win (they beat the Elks by a field goal the week previous).

It's a much different story for the Stampeders. They've battle hard on their way to a 3-3 record with all three of their losses coming by single-digit margins. Last Sunday they hung on for an impressive 25-24 win over the first-place Lions.

While I've been among Calgary QB Jake Maier's critics at times, there's no denying he's playing the best football of his CFL career right now. On Sunday he took on a fierce B.C. defense and threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns (perhaps more importantly no interceptions). Calgary is a well-coached team with a number of players that are really starting to round into form. I'm sure they see this as a tremendous opportunity to get over the hump and keep within striking distance of the Lions and Roughriders at the top of the West Division. Take Calgary (10*).