Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Hawks are in a tough spot here, playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in the last four nights (in three different cities) as they continue their road trip in the high altitude of Denver on Saturday. Atlanta has been shooting the lights out, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five straight games. It also got off more than 90 field goal attempts in four of those five contests, however, a number I believe it will have a tough time approaching here. The Nuggets check in having held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They certainly haven't been at their best defensively during their current 3-0 'over' streak, allowing 46, 42 and 43 made field goals but again, I like the spot they catch the Hawks in here. While Atlanta is known for being extremely vulnerable defensively, the addition of Dejounte Murray has certainly helped its cause in that regard this season. The Hawks enter this contest having held eight of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. In the back half of their last six back-to-back situations, they've limited their foes to 89, 87, 83, 83, 86 and 83 FG attempts with the 'under' going 4-2 along the way (only one of those games went 'over' the total we're working with tonight). In the first meeting between these two teams this season both sides actually shot exceptionally well (Denver was 45-of-85 and Atlanta was 49-of-88) yet that game still totalled 'only' 226 points. Take the under (10*).

Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Indiana at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Purdue has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such a run when you consider the Boilermakers have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts, with four of their last five foes knocking down 23 field goals or less. On the flip side, the Boilers have been shooting the lights out themselves. I don't expect that to continue here, however, as they head on the road to face a tough Indiana squad that has held five of its last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals and five of its last seven foes to less than 60 field goal attempts. The Hoosiers offense has been good at times (notably two games back against Ohio State when it shot 32-of-64 from the field) but hasn't been incredibly consistent. I simply see this as more of a 'grind-it-out' type of Big Ten affair than most are expecting. Take the under.

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Saturday.

I simply feel the Wildcats are laying too many points in this rematch of their 86-74 road win over Oregon State back on January 12th. Few teams play slower than the Beavers and I do think there's a path for them to keep this game competitive on Saturday in Tucson. It's certainly been a trying campaign for Oregon State but it has also faced the 56th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. The Beavers have mustered little offense but do rank a respectable 126th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Unlike the last time they faced Arizona, they do enter this game in terrific defensive form, having held their last four opponents to just 18, 22, 21 and 22 made field goals. The last time they faced Arizona they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 32-of-61 from the field - both of those numbers represent season-highs for Oregon State in Pac-12 play - yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Of note, the Beavers got off 60 field goal attempts of their own in that contest - matching a season-high for them in conference play - and here they'll face a Wildcats squad that has allowed 60 or more FG attempts in nine of their last 10 games (the only game in which they didn't they won by just five points against Washington State - the blueprint from that contest could certainly be used by Oregon State here). In other words, the Beavers will undoubtedly have their share of scoring opportunities here and I'm willing to back them, while also fading a Wildcats squad that is coming off five straight wins and consecutive 90+ point performances. Take Oregon State (8*).

Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Georgia at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas A&M is coming off a double-digit loss at Arkansas earlier this week but I expect it to 'get right' as it hosts a reeling Georgia squad on Saturday night. The Aggies have been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in five straight games but I think we see somewhat of a 'slingshot' effect from their offense here. Georgia continues to give up far too many scoring opportunities, yielding more than 60 field goal attempts to eight of its last 10 opponents. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Bulldogs limited an opponent to fewer than 25 made field goals. Meanwhile, Georgia will be up against a smothering Texas A&M defense that should be in a foul mood off the loss against Arkansas. The Aggies have held the opposition to an average of only 20 made field goals per game here in College Station this season. Take Texas A&M.

My selection is on the 'over' between Syracuse and Boston College at 5 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results earlier in the week. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as they do battle in a rematch of a New Year's Eve game that reached 144 total points. Syracuse enters this game shooting well, having knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29, 23 and 24 field goals in its last seven games. The two outliers - coming in its last two contests - came in games where the Orange were held to fewer than 50 field goal attempts. I don't see this game being played at such a snail's pace, however. Note that the Orange have allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Boston College yields an average of 59 FG attempts to its opponents here in Chestnut Hill this season. Syracuse isn't an awful defensive team by any means but you would have to go all the way back to December 10th (against an awful Georgetown team) to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 23 made field goals. Of the Orange's last seven opponents, six have knocked down at least 25 field goals. It's a similar story for Boston College. The Eagles were fortunate that Clemson couldn't hit its shots last time out, connecting on only 16-of-52 FG attempts in a 62-54 Boston College victory. Prior to that, the Eagles had allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on at least 26 field goals with three of those foes connecting on 30 or more. Offensively, the Eagles are anything but a juggernaut but they're playing some of their best basketball right now and I do think they can give Syracuse a run here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair, given what I outlined regarding the Orange defense earlier. Take the over (8*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Notre Dame at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Wake Forest has incredibly seen each of its last 12 games go 'over' the total and I expect that streak to last for at least one more game as the Demon Deacons head to South Bend to face the Irish on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame has actually posted six consecutive 'over' results itself. The Irish check in ranked a miserable 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Facing a Wake Forest squad that ranks 27th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 93rd in adjusted tempo, not to mention the fact it is coming off four straight losses, doesn't figure to help Notre Dame's cause here. The Irish don't play at a particularly fast pace, but I expect their hand to be forced on Saturday, likely playing from behind for a considerable portion of this contest as a home underdog. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time Notre Dame limited an opponent to fewer than 25 made field goals. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of its last five contests. It simply didn't make the most of its scoring opportunities last time out against Duke, shooting a miserable 24-of-64 from the field (but still scoring 73 points). I expect it to snap right back here. The Irish have put up more than 70 points in four straight home games though and could be catching the Demon Deacons defense at the right time. In fact, Wake has been a completely different defensive team compared to the first month of the season, yielding 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 14 games. Take the over (10*).

Saturday NBA Free play. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

This is a quick revenge spot for the Thunder after they dropped a 112-106 decision in Houston on Wednesday. That was actually their second straight defeat at the hands of the Rockets this season. I look for them to answer back here. Houston is in a difficult back-to-back spot here after losing at home against the Raptors last night. Eric Gordon went off in that game, knocking down 10-of-15 field goal attempts in the narrow loss. Gordon is unlikely to play in the back half of this back-to-back situation. You could argue the Rockets were fortunate to pull out Wednesday's win over the Thunder as Oklahoma City got off a whopping 103 field goal attempts, but could only knock down 38 of them. Note that the Thunder are 12-2 ATS this season after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 7-15 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.2 points in that situation. Take Oklahoma City.