Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on Boston over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Thursday.

You would have to go back six Max Scherzer home starts - all the way to his season debut in late March - to find the last time he wasn't on the bump for a loss by 2+ runs at home. The Red Sox will be desperate to salvage the finale of this four-game series and end their five-game losing streak on Thursday. I think they have the right starter on the mound in Payton Tolle. Boston has won each of his last six starts and he'll be bent on earning some revenge after losing his first two starts against Toronto this season. Interestingly, current Jays hitters are just 6-for-28 (.214) with a .726 OPS against him. Look for the Red Sox to bounce back here. Take Boston (8*).

My selection is on Miami over Pittsburgh at 1:10 pm et on Thursday.

It's very difficult to make a case for the Pirates based on how they've been performing lately. So we won't. Instead we'll back the Marlins as they send Tyler Phillips to the mound against Braxton Ashcraft. Phillips has allowed two earned runs or less in six straight and eight of his last nine starts. While he's not a strong candidate to work deep into the ball game, the Marlins bullpen behind him has been terrific, posting a 2.86 ERA over the last week and a 2.90 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 21 saves converted and only eight blown at home this season. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll take a flyer on the Brewers at an underdog price on Thursday as I think this is a good bounce-back opportunity after a terrible series in San Diego. The Dodgers are coming off a series sweep of the Royals but it didn't come without some resistance. Already down some key offensive producers, Freddie Freeman is questionable for Thursday after a scary fall into the Royals dugout while fielding a ball last night. Regardless if he plays or not, I like the way this one sets up for Milwaukee as it sends Shane Drohan to the mound against Roki Sasaki. Sasaki has given bettors some confidence backing him thanks to recent results. Current Brewers hitters won't be going in blind against him, however, as they have 21 collective at-bats with just three strikeouts. Shane Drohan counters for Milwaukee. He's by no means a household name but has enjoyed a solid campaign. The Brewers did lose his most recent outing but you would have to go back to mid-June to find the last time they lost consecutive Drohan starts and that's happened just twice all season. Take Milwaukee (8*).

My selection is on Texas over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Rangers have the right guy on the mound to end their slide on Thursday in Jacob deGrom. He struck out nine over five innings of one-run ball against a surging Orioles offense last time out, successfully bouncing back from one of his worst outings of the season. It's been another terrific campaign for deGrom for the most part as he checks in with an 8-7 record and a 3.27 FIP. The Rangers will be seeing Angels starter Walbert Urena for the second time in just over a month. They couldn't scratch together any offense against him in their last meeting, but did make him work over four innings, drawing five walks while striking out just three times. With Urena coming off an ugly outing that saw him give up four earned runs over just 2 1/3 innings against the Marlins, I look for Texas' bats to cash in on their opportunities this time around and secure a 2-2 series split in Anaheim. Take Texas (8*).

Be sure to pick up my 10* NFLX Total of the Year for 2026 which kicks off on Thursday! I went a profitable 9-5-1 in NFL preseason action last year and expect to deliver again this August; I'd love to have you on board!

My selection is on Detroit over Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Thursday.

I think this is a pretty straight-forward case of the wrong team being favored due to the starting pitching matchup. Parker Messick earned an All-Star invite in July and has by all accounts had a breakout year for the Guardians, going 9-6 with a 2.57 ERA. With that being said, Cleveland is just 1-2 in his last three starts and the Tigers will be seeing him for the second time this season after chasing him after five innings in a game back in mid-May. Keider Montero has quietly been an effective starter for Detroit this season, posting an 8-7 record to go along with a 3.38 ERA. Command has been an issue over his last couple of outings but that's not generally the case as he has issued just north of two walks per nine innings this season. This is a see-saw matchup is I have ever seen one and it has played out that way to this point with the Tigers taking Tuesday's series opener before the Guardians answered back last night. Now it's Detroit's turn to respond in Thursday's series finale and we're being offered a plus-money return to support that idea. Take Detroit (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Aces took the front half of this two-game set on Tuesday, pulling away for a 10-point victory. There were certainly positives for Washington to take away from that setback as it held Las Vegas to 32-of-70 shooting. Were it not for a poor shooting performance, the Mystics probably would have taken that game down to the wire. I do think there's a path for Washington to slow the pace even further in this rematch and ultimately keep the Aces offense at bay once again. Note that Las Vegas has now been held to 87 points or fewer in four straight games. The Mystics connected on just 29-of-68 field goal attempts on Tuesday and that's notable as they've made good on 29+ field goals in four straight and seven of their last eight games. That's a pretty solid floor offensively and I think it's something they can build on in this rematch. The Aces are considered to be an elite team but they've strung together consecutive ATS wins just twice dating back to June 30th. Meanwhile, the Mystics have lost consecutive games ATS only twice going all the way back to May 27th. Take Washington (10*).

West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Calgary at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The Lions made significant adjustments to their depth chart prior to their 35-19 win in Winnipeg two weeks ago and followed that strong performance up with a 27-24 victory over Hamilton last week. QB Nathan Rourke shook off the rust to guide the Lions to victory in that game, even if it wasn't a clean performance. Here, B.C. will look to avenge an earlier 41-33 loss to the Stampeders in Kelowna. Calgary checks in off a wild 33-30 defeat in Toronto last week. Things have certainly been breaking Calgary's way for the most part this season. Of note, the Stamps last three opponents have turned the football over a whopping 12 times. Turnovers aren't something we can really project or predict but I do think it's safe to say protecting the football will be a point of emphasis for the Lions in this game. They've turned the football over only three times in their last three games. While Calgary will certainly want to head into its bye week on a positive note, I simply feel it is laying too many points against revenge-minded B.C. Look for the Lions to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take B.C. (10*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh moneyline over Green Bay at 7 pm et on Thursday.

While it's important to track down information ahead of these preseason games, like who is going to be playing and for how much, sometimes information can be over-weighted in the betting marketplace and I think that's the case here. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur indicated that he does plan to play his starters in Thursday's preseason opener in Pittsburgh but there was no indication as to who long they would be in. We saw a similar story play out ahead of Green Bay's preseason opener last year with Jordan Love starting and attempting five passes in what turned out to be a 30-10 loss to the Jets. Behind Love is veteran Tyrod Taylor, working in yet another new offense, followed by Kyle McCord and Kyron Drones. That's not a QB rotation that instills a ton of confidence in my opinion. I do think the Steelers have some upside at the position behind starter Aaron Rodgers. Mason Rudolph is a proven commodity while rookie Drew Allar and Will Howard have received positive reviews during training camp. I just don't see anything about this game that screams 'road favorite' for the Packers. It's simply been a knee-jerk reaction to the news that LaFleur would play his starters. We'll back the Steelers at a plus-money return on the moneyline. Take Pittsburgh moneyline (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Tennessee at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The injury bug has hit the 49ers again this training camp and it has many bettors shying away from them as they host the Titans in their preseason opener on Thursday. I think this line has gone too far in Tennessee's direction. I understand the support for the Titans here in August as they do have a strong preseason quarterback rotation with experienced backups in Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis and even Hendon Hooker who has made a splash in the preseason in prior years. With that being said, San Francisco has plenty of upside at the position behind Brock Purdy as well with Mac Jones firmly planted as the backup but Kurtis Rourke and Adrian Martinez capable of making some preseason noise. I just don't see enough of a depth advantage for a rebuilding Tennessee team to warrant it laying a field goal on the road in its first preseason contest. Both teams went 2-1 last August but dropped their respective preseason openers. It's worth noting the 49ers faced the tougher opening matchup against a deep Broncos team that has taken the preseason seriously under head coach Sean Payton. Take San Francisco (8*).

Be sure to pick up my 10* NFLX Total of the Year for 2026 which kicks off on Thursday! I went a profitable 9-5-1 in NFL preseason action last year and expect to deliver again this August; I'd love to have you on board!

NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Las Vegas at 8 pm et on Thursday.

NOTE: Tough break with Carson Beck suddenly ruled out due to a rib injury hours before kickoff. I’ll stick with the play as I do think the porous defenses can still help get us there but obviously not ideal.

While this is a matchup of what are considered to be two of the league's worst teams, I'm anticipating another entertaining game - in line with what we saw from the Cardinals in their first preseason contest against the Panthers. Both teams are depth-shy defensively and I don't anticipate seeing much, if anything, from their starters on that side of the football on Thursday. Neither team can afford to take any hits injury-wise on that side of the football as the talent drops off considerably as you go down the depth chart. That was on full display in the Cardinals preseason opener against the Panthers. Arizona made Panthers third-string QB Haynes King look like Lamar Jackson in the second half in a 33-30 loss. The Raiders actually have a fairly strong preseason QB rotation with first overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza and Aidan O'Connell likely to see the bulk of the snaps. The common line of thinking may be that the Raiders won't put much on Mendoza's plate in his debut but as we saw from Cards rookie Carson Beck last week, that's not always the case. O'Connell has been in the Raiders QB room for a number of years and has had some moderate preseason success. He should have little trouble carving up a sieve-like second and third-string Arizona defense. While it is probably going to be a different story once the regular season begins, for now there are some pretty positive vibes around the Cardinals offense. I would expect them to build off last week's performance as Beck and even third-string Kedon Slovis were able to move the football at will at times in that contest. Of note, the Raiders allowed 20+ points in all three preseason games last year, including a 20-10 loss to the Cardinals. That game was low-scoring but keep in mind it was the preseason finale for both teams with the Raiders giving the bulk of the work to QB Cam Miller and the Cards giving the entire game to Clayton Tune. I'm certainly expecting a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*).