Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Broncos certainly appear to be the 'sharp' side in this matchup but that means little in the grand scheme of things. We won with Denver on Sunday as it picked up a much-needed divisional victory over the Chargers. Beating the undermanned and winless Chargers is one thing, doing it against the defending champion Seahawks, coming off a loss no less, is another. It was going to be difficult enough for Denver to hang with Seattle in this game but losing Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga makes things much trickier. Sam Darnold haters have come out in full force after his slow start. There are questions whether WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be limited by an ankle injury as well. It all plays into Seattle laying less than a field goal in this bounce-back spot. I'll bank on Mike Macdonald scheming up a winning gameplan for the visitors on a short week here. Take Seattle (8*).

BONUS PROP:

This might be the last week to get your Emanuel Wilson player props in with Zach Charbonnet slated to return soon. For now, we'll back Wilson to score a touchdown in the Thursday nighter against the Broncos. Denver has been particularly soft against the run so far this season and while the common line of thinking may be that the Seahawks will elect to attack the Broncos through the air given they're missing Patrick Surtain II among others, there will certainly be ample opportunity for Wilson to reach the end zone. Backup RB George Holani has had fumbling issues and likely can't be trusted around the goal line. Take Wilson TD scorer (8*).

My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I'm not all that concerned with laying two touchdowns with Texas State in this game as I expect it to dominate on both sides of the football. The Rams have a bad defense. Really bad. They've given up more than 9.0 yards per play twice in five games this season and didn't play particularly well in the others either. The only opposing offense they've really been able to keep at bay was Wyoming and the Cowboys have one of the weakest offenses in college football this season. Texas State does come off an 'upset' loss on the road against San Diego State but it's had plenty of time to shake off that defeat. The Bobcats offense stalled at times in that game - something we haven't seen happen very often this season. There were some positives to take away as their defense actually held the Aztecs to just 4.6 yards per play. I'm confident we'll see the Texas State offense get rolling again here and ultimately overwhelm a Rams team that has given up a ridiculous 115 points in its last two contests. Take Texas State (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Thursday.

The Dodgers have played a ton of baseball over the last year when you factor in all of their players that participated in the World Baseball Classic as well. This is a team that looks like it's done at this point so we'll take advantage and back the Brewers at a plus-money return in what sets up as a series-clinching game on Thursday. Tyler Glasnow will get the start for Los Angeles in its last ditch effort to extend this series. As much as I like Glasnow, he's had a tough season marred by injury and while his overall numbers are fine, he's labored through his last few outings including a playoff appearance against the Braves that saw him issue five walks (while striking out only five) over 4 2/3 innings. He does own terrific career numbers against current Brewers hitters but there's no guarantee he can work deep into this ball game. It is expected that left-hander Shane Drohan will start and be given a short leash for the Brewers as he makes his first appearance of the postseason. We'll likely see Dustin May pitch as well. As far as Drohan goes, he figures to have the advantage against a Dodgers lineup that has struggled as a whole in these playoffs but certainly against southpaw pitching. Take Milwaukee (8*).

My selection is on Georgia Southern minus the points over Old Dominion at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The hook probably looks enticing to a lot of bettors with Old Dominion playing at home after staging an 'upset' win at Appalachian State last week. That's not to mention the fact that it rolled to a 45-10 victory in this same matchup last year. Most of the key performers for the Monarchs in that game last November are gone and there's no question the 2026 campaign has been a trying one so far. ODU checks in 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Georgia Southern is also 2-4 but not all records are created equally as the Eagles have gone 5-1 ATS and have faced a more difficult schedule than ODU by most metrics. Georgia Southern certainly appears to be trending in the right direction having gained over 7.0 yards per play in consecutive games. Former North Carolina QB Max Johnson has helped the offense pick up right where it left off after JC French IV left for Cincinnati. While known for their ground attack in recent years, the Eagles have developed a more dynamic offense this season with WR Josh Dallas a standout. Defensively, we've seen a bit of a 'bend but don't break' mentality from the Eagles. I do think they can come up with some splash plays against an ODU offense that has been turnover happy at times this season. How the Monarchs fare in their annual early season game against Virginia Tech tends to be a good measuring stick for this team and this year they dropped a 44-21 decision. As much as I don't love laying points with road teams in these weeknight games, I do think Georgia Southern is the right side here. Take Georgia Southern (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Thursday.

Note that the start time for this game has been moved up to avoid bad weather expected in the evening. I'm expecting a low-scoring affair, much like we saw in Game 2 of this series. Griffin Jax gets the start for the Rays. He's certainly been a reliable arm for the Rays this season, making 34 appearances and logging a 3.76 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. Current Guardians hitters are 14-for-61 (.230) with a .565 OPS against him. Of course, we're likely only going to see 2-3 innings from Jax. The Rays bullpen has posted a collective 2.97 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last month. Gavin Williams takes the ball for Cleveland. He made three appearances in the ALDS against Chicago, allowing two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings, striking out a whopping 24 along the way. The Guardians 'pen checks in sporting a 2.39 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last two months, an incredible run of success for one of the best relief corps' in baseball. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Underdog of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

NOTE: Utah has flipped to the favorite since this play was posted earlier today. I still like the Mammoth at the current price.

The Oilers return home following a perfect 3-0 road trip and have won five straight games in regulation time since opening the season with an overtime loss against the Canucks. I look for the Mammoth to spoil their streak on Thursday, however. Utah has quietly started 5-2 and I think it's one of the few teams in the Western Conference that can hang with Edmonton offensively. Note that the Mammoth currently rank fifth in the league in goals per game. Better still, they're fourth in shots on goal per contest (the Oilers are 24th) and second in power play percentage. Given the Oilers exceptionally high shooting percentage to this point, I'm anticipating some regression moving forward. Also of note, the Mammoth rank an impressive third in the league in shots on goal allowed per game. It all adds up to a Utah 'upset' victory in Edmonton on Thursday. Take Utah (10*).