Last updated: May 21, 2026 3:34 pm
Below are the available free selections in the WNBA. If you are looking for higher-rated plays, head on over to our WNBA picks page.
Jimmy Boyd
1* Free Pick on Sparks/Mercury: under 178½
The market is asking you to pay top dollar for a Phoenix Over trend that doesn't match the defensive numbers on the floor.
Phoenix's last 12 games went Over 11 times, and that's the case people will lean on.
I get it.
But the Mercury are posting a 105.4 defensive rating through their first 5 games, which is a real number on a real sample with the current roster.
That's not a 178.5 defense.
The Sparks are the reason this total is sky-high.
Los Angeles is giving up a 121.3 defensive rating, and Kelsey Plum at 26.8 PPG is going to score regardless.
I'm not arguing the Sparks side of the scoreboard goes quiet.
The pace concern is the strongest opposition point.
Both teams sit at 97.5 and 97.44, and a fast game raises the floor on totals.
Fair.
But pace alone doesn't get you to 179 when one of the two offenses is run by a Sparks team turning it over on 21% of possessions.
That's the worst tov_pct in the stat pack, and it directly caps their scoring ceiling regardless of how fast they push.
Phoenix is also on 2 days rest versus the Sparks' 4.
Coach Tibbetts has publicly emphasized re-establishing defensive identity.
When a coach calls out defense pre-game, that usually shows up in the half-court sets.
The number is the play here. 178.5 is asking both teams to be elite on the same night.
Los Angeles has been elite at exactly one thing: giving up points.
Take the value.
I like the Under
Totals Guru
Free Total Annihilator On Sparks vs Mercury under 178½ -110
Black Widow
1* Free Wiseguy Play on Toronto Tempo +6½ -105
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
Bobby Conn
1* Free Play on Sparks +3½ -110
ASA
ASA WNBA free play – Phoenix Mercury -3 vs LA Sparks, 10PM ET - These two teams have gotten off to poor starts with the Sparks 1-3 SU, the Mercury currently stand 2-3 SU. They are comparable offensively with the Mercury the 5th best offensive Net rating team in the league at 109.7 and the Sparks 8th at 107.7. The big difference between the two teams is defensively with the Sparks the worst team in the league in most key statistical categories on that end of the court. L.A. is 15th in defensive Net rating at 121.3, give up 98.3PPG on 51% shooting by opponents. In comparison the Mercury rank 9th in DNR at 105.4 while allowing the 4th fewest points per game at 86 per. Phoenix has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with the Sparks and will get cover #7 tonight. Lay the points with the Mercury.
Cole Faxon
FREE PLAY on Sparks/Mercury under 178½
Free Expert Predictions on Today’s WNBA Games
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