ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -2.5 at Denver Broncos, 8:20PM ET

These two teams are coming off opposite results with the Broncos beating a division rival the Chargers, the Seahawks are off a loss to the 49ers. Granted it’s a short week with travel for Seattle but the Broncos were on the road for two straight weeks so it’s not like they’ve been home waiting for Seattle to show up. We have adjusted the Seahawks down in our power rankings but this team is still the defending Super Bowl Champions and one of the better teams in the NFL. Denver has taken a bigger fall in our ratings with an offense that can’t generate much of anything at this point. Denver is 30th in total yards gained per game this season at 269YPG, 28th in Yards per play at 4.8, rank 25th in rushing and passing yards per game. They are averaging just 19.4ppg, 26th fewest in the league. Seattle’s offense isn’t what it was a year ago, largely due to the departure of Kenneth Walker III, but they still rate significantly better than Denver’s. Seattle is averaging 328YPG (17th), ranks 13th in Yards per play (5.7) is 17th in rushing and 16th in passing yards per game. They have one of the best Yards per point offenses and average 26.8ppg which is 8th most in the NFL. The Seahawks also have the advantage defensively in this one. Nobody allows fewer Yards per game (251.2) or Yards per play (4.3) than the Seahawks. They are 11th against the run and 1st against the pass. The Denver defense is close to average in most defensive metrics allowing the 22nd most YPG, 15th in Yards per play defense, 29th in stopping the run and 9th against the pass. The problem the Broncos have tonight is mounting injuries in the secondary and trying to stop WR Smith-Njigba. Granted, Prime Time underdogs have been fantastic of late with a 11-3-1 ATS run, but Seattle on the road is on a current 16-3 SU streak overall, 11-1 SU/ 7-4-1 ATS their last twelve as a road chalk. The Seahawks have also won 7 of their last eleven games when coming off a loss by an average margin of victory of +2.8ppg. We will take the better team here with Seattle.

#50 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5 goals (+105) over Seattle Kraken, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a great spot for the Lightning to roll.  They were 8-1 all-time versus Seattle prior to losing here at home (in OT) the last time these clubs met.  Of those 8 TB victories, 7 were by a margin of 2+ goals and in fact the aggregate score of those 7 games was 32-8 in favor of the Lightning!  Adding to the value here is Tampa Bay is off a 4-1 loss at New York as the Rangers beat them and tacked on an empty net goal.  We mention that because Andrei Vasilevskiy did not play badly really, rather it was just a rare bad game for his Bolts teammates in front of him.  Now Vasilevskiy is back home where Tampa Bay has won his two starts by scores of 3-1 and 4-1.  He is one of the best goalies in the world and he and TB bounce back big here off the loss.  We are aware that Seattle is off to a good start this season but, keep in mind, 4 of the 5 Kraken wins this season have come against 3 teams - Calgary, Detroit, Philadelphia - that are all in last place of their divisions!  The Flames, Red Wings and Flyers have combined for just 2 wins in their 20 games this season!  Seattle is playing their 4th straight road game and they have gone from Detroit to DC to Philly and now are all the way down in Florida.  They have been winning but again strength of schedule has factored into that and now they are in the wrong place at the wrong time.  The Bolts, off a road loss, respond big here at home with another big home win!  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Tampa Bay and not having to lay any juice in this one is a high value play here.

#912 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians Money Line -121 over Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 1 PM ET - This series is tied up at 1-1 and we like the Guardians at home here as this series shifts north to Cleveland.  Gavin Williams has been phenomenal in this post-season.  Not only just 2 earned runs allowed in 11 and 2/3 innings, he has also has struck out 24 and that means he has averaged nearly 2 K's per inning so far in these playoffs and that was against a White Sox team that had been really hot at the plate.  Here he faces a Rays team that is averaging just 3.2 runs scored per game in these playoffs.  Also, if you look at the Rays last 9 road games, they only scored bigger in 2 of the games.  In the other 7 road games they scored an average of 2.3 runs.  Against Williams and a rested Guardians bullpen (yesterday was a travel day for these teams), this sure looks like another one of those road games where Tampa Bay struggles at the plate. Lay the small price with the home team here. 

#111/112 ASA PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – East Carolina vs UAB, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET

The strength of both of these teams is their defense.  Both rank in the top 40 in total defense and both rank outside the top 100 in total offense.  ECU’s offense is average 20.5 PPG if you take out their game vs FCS North Carolina Central and that’s vs a set of defenses with an average rank of 58th.  UAB’s offense is 20 PPG if you take out their FCS game vs Samford and that’s facing a set of defenses with an average rank of 79th (total D).  UAB’s offense leans heavily on the run (10th in rush attempts per game) which eats clock.  ECU is more balanced on offense (82nd in rushing YPG and 99th in passing YPG) but we think they’ll run the ball a lot in this one as well.  Last week they ran the ball 41 times last week vs Rice and UAB’s rush defense is weaker than their pass D (2nd nationally in pass defense).  ECU’s highest scoring output this year was 28 points vs a Rice defense that ranks 86th in total D and 101st in scoring D.  UAB’s highest scoring game was 26 points vs a UL Monroe defense that ranks 138th in total defense and scoring defense.  Defensively, the only 2 teams that topped 21 points vs UAB was Memphis and Illinois who average 32 PPG and 38 PPG respectively.  ECU has held their last 3 opponents to 17 points or less and the only team that topped 27 points was Alabama who ranks #3 in the nation averaging 45 PPG.  These 2 have a combined record of 9-2 to the Under and we think this is a low scoring grinder.