ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

 ASA NBA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30pm ET

The Nets clearly have the scheduling advantage here with the Hawks playing the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days. Brooklyn on the other hand last played on Wednesday a win over Charlotte. Brooklyn has won 2 of their last three games and were competitive in a loss at New York sandwiched between the two W’s. Brooklyn has a season long efficiency differential of minus -6.3 but as we mentioned earlier, they are playing better in recent games. In fact, in the Nets last 5 games they have a near identical eDIFF as the Hawks (-2.4 Nets, -2.0 Hawks). Atlanta had two big games against the Wizards and former Hawk Trae Young and will naturally let down a little here against the 2-6 SU Nets. Atlanta has won 4 straight in the series, but Brooklyn has covered 2 of those. Brooklyn has faced Cleveland, Boston, Indiana and New York on the road this season. They beat Indiana and lost by 1 in Boston, -4 in Cleveland and by 13 in New York. They can keep this one close and an outright win would not be a surprise.

ASA NHL PLAY ON Dallas Stars Puck Line (-1.5 goals) -112 over San Jose Sharks, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - The Sharks are in a tough spot as they got blown out 4-1 in Minnesota last night and now have to face a strong Stars team the very next evening in Dallas. The Stars will take advantage of a San Jose team that has been outscored 18 to 5 in losing their last 4 games by a significant margin. Dallas enters this game off a loss in the shootout period (2-1) and this followed B2B wins for the Stars. It is the ideal bounce back spot for the Stars. Dallas is 3-1 this season when entering a game off a loss by a margin of 3 or less goals. The Stars already hammered the Sharks here in Dallas in the first meeting between these teams this season. Home team again in another blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals (at a small price currently in the -120 range) with home favorite Dallas is the value play here.

#383 ASA FREE PLAY ON West Virginia +16.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET

Too many points here with a WVU offense that is cooking and coming off a bye week.  The Mountaineers rank 6th in rushing (262 YPG) and they average 54 rushing attempts per game (2nd nationally).  Tech also loves the run the ball (39th in rush attempts per game) and now with new starting QB Castellanos that should go up.  They ran the ball 47 times last week vs Arizona.  Two teams that run the heck out of the ball and eat clock should limit possessions and make it very tough for the Red Raiders to pull away in this game.  WVU has already shown they thrive in this spot as they’ve been a double digit dog twice this year and won both games outright (@ TCU and @ UVA) and they’ve covered 6 of their last 7 in that spot.  Even in their 3 losses, West Virginia put up big offensive numbers averaging just over 500 YPG.  While the Neers are off a bye week, Tech will be playing their 4th straight week and they are off a huge win over Arizona who they were battling to stay near the top of the Big 12 standings (both were 3-1 in conference play entering last week).  We haven’t been overly impressed with Texas Tech this season and feel they’ve been very fortunate to have a 7-1 record.  In fact, they’ve been outgained in 4 of their 8 games this season.  Let’s take the hefty points here with West Virginia.    

#425 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming +4.5 over UNLV, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET

After a 2-3 start to the season, Wyoming has kicked it in gear winning and covering 3 in a row.  They are coming off a bye week and playing their 3rd straight home game so they should be as fresh as they’ve been all season.  UNLV  is coming off a tight home win vs a terrible Northern Illinois team that is 0-8 on the season and lost to FCS Illinois State.  Prior to their 31-24 loss @ UNLV last week, NIU had played 6 other FBS opponents and lost all of those games by at least 18 points and by an average score of 40-13.  We have a nice recent comparison for this game as the last 2 games they’ve each played were vs NIU and Air Force.  Wyoming beat NIU 41-23 and outgained them 8.5 YPP to 5.4 YPP.  UNLV beat NIU 31-24 and outgained them 6.6 YPP to 5.6 YPP.  Wyoming then beat Air Force 28-14 and outgained them 7.3 YPP to 5.0 YPP.  UNLV lost vs Air Force 41-31 and the Rebels were outgained 5.4 YPP to 6.5 YPP.  Over the last 3 games, the Cowboys have margins of +12 PPG and +1.5 YPP while UNLV is +1 PPG and -0.4 YPP.  In current form, Wyoming is the better team right now and we’re getting almost a TD with the spread for some cushion.  The Cowboy rushing attack has really taken off over the last month averaging 244 YPG on the ground on 6.2 YPC since early October.  They are 22nd nationally in rushing success rate for the season.  That’s bad news for UNLV’s defense who ranks 129th in defensive rush success rate, 133rd in stuff rate and 138th in line yards.  Over the last 3 games UNLV’s stop unit has allowed an average of almost 300 YPG rushing on over 6.0 YPC.  Even NIU’s putrid running attack, who was averaging 98 YPG on the ground (124th) coming into last weeks game, put up 268 yards rushing on UNLV.   When these teams met last year, UNLV was a 4.5 point favorite and won the game 31-17 but Wyoming outgained the Rebs by 100 yards.  The Cowboys are a much better team than a year ago while UNLV is not the same team they were last year.  We like the points here and will throw some on the money line as well.

#419/420 ASA 3* PLAY ON Over 53.5 Points – Miami FL vs Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET

Both offenses rank in the top 10 in scoring (Miami #1 and ND #6) and both are in the top 20 in YPP offense with Miami averaging 7.7 YPP and ND 6.6 YPP.  The Canes have scored at least 33 points in every game this season and they are averaging 47.6 PPG.   The Irish have scored at least 27 points in all but 1 games (24 vs BYU) and they are averaging 40.4 PPG.  Both rank in the top 4 nationally in offensive success rate and in passing success rate they rank #1 (Miami) and #6 (Notre Dame).  We think both teams will move the ball especially through the air.  The weakest unit on the field by far is Miami’s pass defense.  They rank 123rd nationally allowing 262 YPG thru the air.  Last week UNC QB Billy Edwards (journeyman) threw for 300 yards and 5 TD’s and had the highest QBR of his career.  A week earlier Pitt’s back up QB threw for 268 yards and the week prior to that FSU QB threw for 300 yards and 4 TD’s.  Those QB’s are far from top tier and this week they get ND QB Carr who will be a 1st round draft pick in the NFL.  This Miami defense is trending down allowing each of their last 3 opponents to average at least 6.4 YPP and none of those teams (UNC, Pitt (back up QB), and FSU) are in the same category as this Irish offense.  Lastly on the Canes defense, despite their poor numbers, they’ve faced only 1 offense currently ranked in the top 20 nationally (total offense) and that was Wake who threw for over 300 yards.  The average rank of the offenses the Canes have faced this year is 67th (total offense).  ND is a different animal on offense.  Flipping to the other side, the Irish have great defensive numbers but they are in the same boat.  They haven’t faced a single offense this year ranked in the top 50 and the average rank of the offenses is 92nd.  They haven’t faced a single elite QB this year until this weekend when they are up against Miami QB Mensah who will also be a first round draft pick.  On top of that, the Irish lost some key defensive starters last week vs Navy.  The weather at the time of this writing (midweek) looks decent with temps in the 40’s, light winds, and no precip at kickoff.  Wouldn’t be at all surprised if both teams crack the 30s here.  Over is the call.        

#344 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +3 over Texas, Saturday at 12 PM ET

Missouri is an extremely dangerous home dog in this spot.  Texas has only played ONE true road game the entire season and squeaked by Tennessee 20-17.  This is a “sleepy” early start and Texas has LSU on deck so we wouldn’t be surprised if the Horns aren’t on their “A” game in this one.  They’ll have to be to come out of Columbia with a win.   This will be the 5th consecutive game for Texas since their bye while Missouri had a bye prior to last week’s 34-10 win @ Arkansas.  The Tigers are undefeated at home this season including easy wins over Florida (45-17) and Texas A&M (27-6).  Texas is just 2-2 since their bye week including back to back losses vs Florida and Oklahoma.  The Longhorn offense has been shaky all season (90th in total offense) and they’ve only averaged 325 YPG over their last 3 contests.  They can’t run the ball (101st in rushing YPG) and they are facing a Mizzou D that allows just 98 YPG rushing.  That puts all kinds of pressure on QB Manning who simply has been pretty average this season.  The Tigers are much better offensively averaging 425 YPG and at home they are putting up 440 YPG on 200 YPG rushing and 240 passing (very balanced).  Both teams have dead even YPP margins on the season (+1.5) and Missouri actually has the better YPG margin.  We have this game power rated as a pick-em.  Texas has a ton of injuries and many key players (DBs, DE, OT, RB, and WRs).  We like the value with the home team that should be fresher and has been great at home winning 20 of their last 22 games here.  The Tigers are also 13-5 ATS their last 18 as a home underdog.  Go Mizzou!