ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

#919 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -105 over Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 3:07 PM ET - Line value here because the Yankees have lost 3 straight and the Blue Jays have won 4 straight. That is keeping this line in the pick'em range when normally the Yankees would be a big favorite here considering the pitching edge for this one. Marcus Stroman has been pitching well for New York and was victimized by clutch hitting in his most recent start. That led to 4 earned runs on only 4 hits as Stroman was again tough to hit despite the end result. Stroman has held opponents to a .180 batting average in his 3 starts this season and he has struck out 17 in 17 innings. His numbers are in stark contrast to the struggling Kevin Gausman. Note that Gausman is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA this season and he has been hit at a .372 batting average. This is not a fluke as Gausman has not looked right at all. He had a shoulder injury during spring training so he only pitched in one game in spring training and he is rusty early this season. This will be Gausman's 4th outing and he has been rocked in each of the last two so he continues to be in "fade" territory right now. Neither team has hit particularly well this season but the Yankees bullpen has a 2.50 ERA compared to the Blue Jays having a 5.18 ERA so the pitching edge - both starting and bullpen - is strongly in favor of New York here. Road team rolls in this one!

#925 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -140 over Houston Astros, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - As we mentioned yesterday, these two teams, in recent years, have annually been two of the top teams in the majors.  But the fact remains that Houston is off to a very rough start this season and not really showing any signs of turning things around yet. That being said, there is a lot of value here with the Braves even at a moderate price on the road as they have a huge starting pitching edge.  Max Fried had an unusually rough pair of the outings but this guy long-term has been great and he bounced back in this last start and forced a lot of ground balls plus got strikeouts and Fried absolutely looks back on track. For JP France, there is nothing of the sort.  France is consistently regressing in each start and now will be making his 4th start of the year.  He has an 8.22 ERA so far.  You can see why we like the Braves at a moderate price on the road even though the Astros have been one of the best teams in baseball in 6 of the last 7 seasons. The covid season was the lone outlier.  As for this season however, Houston is 6-13 and has lost 6 of 8.  Though the 2 wins in this recent 2-6 stretch were solid, the 5 most recent losses were by a combined score of 48 to 16 and we like the Braves to roll here.  Atlanta has won 8 of 11 games and is already 7-3 on the road this season as well.  Braves off the 6-1 win Monday and another 6-2 win here in Houston last night and do it again here.  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, 9:30 PM ET - Let’s start on the defensive end of the court for both teams. The Hawks were bad defensively, I mean really bad, as in 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. The Bulls weren’t a whole lot better, ranking 21st allowing 1.163PPP. Atlanta is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and will try to push the tempo. The Bulls were one of the slowest teams in the league and will want to slow things down. In the 3 meetings this season these two teams combined for 231, 262 and 214 total points. The lowest scoring game of the bunch was on April 1st but we did get 176 field goal attempts in that game. In that particular game the Hawks shot 50% overall and 48% from Deep, while the Bulls struggled at 39% overall and 25% from beyond the Arc. Chicago won’t shoot that poorly again versus this Hawks D that ranks 28th in FG% D and 3PT% defense. Not to mention, the Bulls have the 9th most efficient offense over their last 5 games in the NBA averaging 1.192-points per possession. When Atlanta has been on the road this season those games have averaged 229.3PPG. Chicago home games this season have averaged 233.7PPG. We expect plenty of points in this one…BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.