ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Mariners again lost to the Rangers yesterday in the second game of this 3-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Mariners to just 33-44 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 49-31 in home games this season and this is their regular season home finale. Considering that plus the fact they are in a battle with Houston and Seattle for the AL West title, the Rangers realize the importance of taking advantage of home field in this one for the series sweep. We get line value here because Bryan Woo is on the mound for the Mariners in this one and has a respectable ERA. The fact is the rookie does not have the MLB big game experience of Nathan Eovaldi plus Woo is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in his 3 day game starts this season. This Texas line up has been very good this season at home where they are ranked #2 in the AL for batting average (.274) and #1 in the AL with a .492 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6 RPG this season at home. They will send Eovaldi to the mound here as he continues to get back to full strength after missing the last two weeks of July and the month of August. We look for him to continue to bounce back as he has gotten stronger and worked deeper with each start here in the month of September. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 3.04 and an 11-4 record. With over a decade of experience including multiple seasons with post-season experience, Eovaldi delivers in a key game here. The Rangers are looking to grab the division title this coming week and we look for Eovaldi to help the cause and, along the way, he adds a W to his sparkling run of 10-2 his last 12 decisions! Texas is 6-1 last 7 at home and Seattle is on an overall 7-12 run and has lost 10 of 16 road games! Take the Rangers

#471/472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 43 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - In Week #1 of the NFL season the Unders were 12-4. In Week #2 the Overs came in with a 13-3 record. The oddsmakers have adjusted their numbers up on this game and we will bet contrarian with an Under wager. The Cowboy’s defense is ‘that’ good! They have given up 10 total points this season and the touchdown allowed was a 68-yard play to the Jets last week. Ask yourself this, would you be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t score here? We wouldn’t. Dallas held the Giants offense to 171-total yards in the opener, then held the Jets to 215 last week with 68 coming on one long TD pass. Take that 1 TD play away last week and the Cowboys allowed just 3.4YPPL. In Week #1 the Cowboys put up 40-points but two scores came by special teams and the defense. Last week against the Jets, the Cowboys (McCarthy) went ultra conservative in the 2nd half with 4 field goals. Dallas has averaged just 4.7YPP which ranks 24th in the league. Arizona is averaging 5.0YPP offensively which is 21st. Both teams average abnormally high Yards Per Points offensively, but we expect a regression in those numbers. Dallas now has two weeks of film on Cards QB Dobbs and will have a gameplan in place to pressure the unproven QB. The pace of play clearly favors a lower scoring contest as the Cardinals are 27th in pace with a play run every 30.1 seconds. Dallas is nearly as slow (25th) at a play run every 29.9 seconds. With the potential of Arizona scoring 10 or less points, and the Cowboys conservative play calling we like Under the total.

#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 44 Points - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The first aspect we like about this game is the fact that both teams prefer to play fast, which leads to more plays/possessions per game and potentially more scoring opportunities. The Jags are 12th in play per second at 27.9, the Texans are 5th at 25.5 seconds p/play. After putting up 31-points in their opener, the Jags managed just 9-points last week against a very good Kansas City defense that had Chris Jones back in the lineup. Jacksonville had three potential TD drives that turned into FG’s when receivers didn’t get their feet down inbounds in the endzone. The Jags were 9th in scoring a year ago at 23.9PPG and 12th in Yards Per Points offensively at 15.0. The low scoring output last week was not a true indicator of this offensive unit, and we are betting they bounce back here, especially against this Texans defense. Houston is giving up 28 PPG and just allowed 31 to a Colts team with a rookie QB making his first start on the road. The Colts averaged 6.3 Yards Per Play against this Texans D after averaging just 4.8YPP a year ago (31st). Houston may have found their QB of the future with CJ Stroud who played extremely well last week against Indianapolis. Stroud was 30/47 for 384 passing yards with 2 TD’s. The Texans converted 9 of 19 3rd downs and managed 24 first downs in the game despite losing. The average total points scored in an NFL game this season is 45.4PPG. This game will not be less than average.

#467 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +8.5 at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are on the visiting dog here with the Colts and the points. Let’s start with the scheduling and preceding results for both teams. Baltimore is off a big road win over an AFC North rival Cincinnati, are a ‘fat’ 2-0, and have road dates looming at Cleveland and Pittsburgh. We are not overly impressed with either of the Ravens wins as they were largely outplayed in Week #1 by the Texans at home, then beat a struggling Bengals team with an injured QB in Burrows. The Colts meanwhile lost by 10pts at home in the opener to a Jags team that scored two TD’s in the final 5:14 of the game. Last week the Colts went to Houston and beat the Texans 31-21 and averaged 6.3 yards per play offensively. Indianapolis was balanced with 126-rushing yards and 227-passing. They did lose QB Richardson in the game with a concussion, but Gardner Minshew might be the best backup in the league. Minshew came into the game and went 19 of 23 for 171-yards and a TD. Based on some core statistics there isn’t an 8-point difference between these two teams. The Colts allowed 4.9YPP (12th best) the Ravens allow 4.3YPP (4th). Indianapolis averages 5.1YPP offensively, the Ravens average 5.3YPP. Baltimore is just 14-24 ATS since 2018 as a home favorite with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. Looking at that same time frame, the Colts are 17-11-2 ATS as a road dog (60.7%) with an average +/- versus the spread of +1.4PPG. Grab the points and the dog.