Jack Jones of BetFirm Daily Free Sports Picks & Predictions

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Astros OVER 9

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall despite being underdogs in all 10 games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those 10 games and are hot at the plate.

The Royals will stay hot at the plate against the overrated Hunter Bown.  He is 10-12 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in 14 home starts.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in his last start, which also came at home.

The Royals will be going with opener Steven Cruz in this one before turning it over to their bullpen, which has a 5.21 ERA and 1.477 WHIP on the season.  The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games and are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  They should get their bats going as well.

Houston is 17-4 OVER when revenging a one-run loss this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +234

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall despite being underdogs in all 10 games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those 10 games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They have been a real thorn in Houston's side and are taking pride in it.  They won Game 1 as a +210 underdog and Game 2 as a +240 underdog.  I was on them in both games, and I'll back them again today.

Hunter Brown has no business being this big of a favorite over the Royals.  He is 10-12 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in 14 home starts.  The Astros are 5-9 (-9.9 Units) in Brown's 14 home starts this season.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in his last start, which also came at home.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-121)

The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in five consecutive games and a total of 39 runs in those five games.  They are red hot at the plate, which is why I'm willing to take them on the Run Line today against the lowly Colorado Rockies, who have lost six consecutive games coming in.

Jordan Wicks is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in five starts for the Cubs this season.  Wicks held the Rockies to one run and 4 base runners in 6 innings in Colorado on September 11th earlier this month in his lone career start against them.

He'll be opposed by Ty Blach, who is 3-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 11 starts.  Blach is 1-1 with a 9.22 ERA and 2.195 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and a whopping 6 homers in 13 2/3 innings.  Blach has posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in four career starts against Chicago.

Colorado is 3-42 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-15 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -2

The New Orleans Saints are off to a 2-0 start this season against a pretty weak schedule.  I think they are getting too much respect for their two wins, and they should be at least a 3-point underdog here against the Green Bay Packers.  We are getting good value here laying this short number with the Packers at home.

The Saints opened the season with a 1-point home win over the Tennessee Titans despite being gifted 3 interceptions from Ryan Tannehill.  Last week, the Saints beat the Panthers by 3 on the road.  That's the same Panthers team that lost by 14 on the road to the Falcons the week prior and looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL to this point.  That makes this a short week for the Saints after playing on Monday Night Football, and this is clearly a step up in class for them this week.

I think if you asked the Packers prior to the season they would have taken a 1-1 start considering their first two games came on the road.  After blasting the Bears 38-20, the Packers blew a 12-point 4th quarter lead to the Falcons last week and lost 25-24 on a last-minute field goal.  You can bet they will be out for blood this week after playing seven great quarters and one terrible one that cost them a 2-0 start.

Now the Packers will be playing their home opener with one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL.  They will be fired up in support of Jordan Love's home debut.  Love has been very good with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 35 rushing yards and 7.0 per carry thus far.  After not having two of his best weapons against the Falcons in WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones, there's a chance he gets both back this week.  Watson returned to practice and is probable, while Jones is a 50/50 proposition.

The Packers are fully healthy on defense and improved.  The Saints are only scoring 18.0 points per game this season and are dealing with injuries of their own on offense.  They just aren't nearly as explosive without Alvin Kamara, who will miss this game as well.  His replacement Jamaal Williams is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  QB Taysom Hill has been getting a lot of work in the backfield as a result, and even he's questionable with a knee injury.

Matt LaFleur is 12-3 ATS in September games as the coach of Green Bay.  LaFleur is 10-2 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Packers.  Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. conference opponents.  The Packers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a road game.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Deshaun Watson single-handedly cost the Browns a win last week.  He was 22-of-40 passing and had a couple costly offensive facemask penalties trying to stiff arm guys.  He also handed the Steelers two defensive touchdowns.  He's clearly not the guy he was in Houston. He is 4-4 as a starter in Cleveland with a 9-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  There's too much on Watson's shoulders moving forward.

Now the Browns are without their best offensive player in Nick Chubb after a gruesome knee injury.  I just don't think this team laying more than a field goal to the Titans.  They do have a great defense, but keep in mind they played a broken Bengals offense and a broken Steelers offense.  They also have a much worse injury situation than the Titans right now.

Mike Vraebel is the underdog king.  He actually has a winning record SU as an underdog in his career at 24-22 SU.  Vrabel is 23-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  The Titans just have a way of making games close and winning them late with great coaching.  Each of their first two games this season were decided by a combined 4 points.

The Titans have a very good defense this season that will keep them in games.  They are stout against the run, and the Browns want to run the football even without Chubb.  The Titans still have a great rushing attack with Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill was much sharper last week completing 20-of-24 passes to bounce back from his 3-interception performance against the Saints.  He led the Titans to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Chargers to bounce back from the 1-point loss to the Saints.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing on Monday Night Football since 1992.  So the Browns are on a short week as well, only adding to the tough spot for them.  Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss in the first half of the season are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to PK.  Bet the Titans Friday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bears/Chiefs OVER 47

The Kansas City Chiefs played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Chicago Bears down to 47.

This Kansas City offense has been held in check through two weeks.  Injuries and turnovers hurt them in Week 1 against the Lions, and turnovers and red zone failures hurt them in Week 2 against the Jaguars.  I think the Chiefs are looking to make a statement this week on offense, and I expect them to hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears allowed 38 points to the Packers in Week 1 and 27 points and 437 total yards to the Bucs in Week 2.  Their defensive coordinator resigned, they already lack talent at every level defensively, and now they are missing a few of their best defensive players due to injury.  What a mess.  They are without CB Kyler Gordon and likely to be without S Eddie Jackson this week.  The Chiefs are going to score 30-plus points on the Bears to bust out of their funk and help pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bears should get to 17-plus against the Chiefs.  They scored 20 on the Packers in the opener and 17 on the Bucs last week.  But Justin Fields has been thinking too much and taking negative plays as a result.  He has stated this week that he's going to get back to being himself and play on instincts, which is when he and the Bears are much better.  That means he's going to run a lot more, and the Chiefs struggle against running quarterbacks.  Look for Fields to play his best game of the season this week for the Bears, who are much healthier on offense than defense.  

Conditions in Kansas City look good for a shootout Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, only a 26% chance of precipitation and only 8.5 MPH winds.  This total has been suppressed due to Kansas City going under the total in their first two games this season.  We'll take advantage of the value and back the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cowboys/Cardinals OVER 43

The Dallas Cowboys have scored at total of 70 points in their first two games for an average of 35.0 points per game.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season.  I wouldn't be surprise to see them get to their season average again here against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Cardinals made Daniel Jones look like Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week in their 31-28 loss to the Giants.  They have injuries up and down their defense, and now they are a tired defense after being on the field so much in the second half last week.

No question the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have played Jones and the Giants and Zach Wilson and a dead Jets offense without Aaron Rodgers.  They just lost CB Travon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice this week.

Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for this Arizona offense, which is better than it gets credit for.  They put up 16 points on a very good Washington defense in Week 1, and then 28 points and 379 total yards against the Giants last week.  I expect them to put up enough points on the Cowboys to help us cash this OVER ticket.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Arizona.  The Cowboys and Cardinals have combined for at least 45 points in four consecutive meetings and six of their last seven meetings.  A big reason for that is because these games are always played indoors in perfect conditions.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Jaguars OVER 44

The Jacksonville Jaguars played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Houston Texans down to 44.

That game against the Chiefs was a bit of an aberration.  Both teams struggled in the red zone and with turnovers.  But the Jaguars will get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL this week, which is what they looked like in Week 1 when they beat the Colts 31-21 for 51 combined points.  There's simply too much talent on this offense to hold them down for long.

Speaking of the Colts, the Texans just played them last week and lost 31-20 for 51 combined points.  The Colts did whatever they wanted to on offense and jumped out to a huge lead before calling off the dogs.  The Texans showed they could still move the football and score late, which is what I could see happening again here to help us cash this OVER.

CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts last week and took a big step forward from Week 1 against the Ravens to that performance.  He has some underrated targets on the outside in Collins, Dell and Woods, and he has a great running back in Damien Pierce.  This Texans offense I think is underrated right now.

The problem for Houston is all their injuries on defense right now.  They could potentially be without four of their top five defensive backs.  They have injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line as well.  They have the longest injury list of any team in the NFL right now, and almost all of them are on defense.  It looks as though they will get their best offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil back from injury this week as well.  

Conditions in Jacksonville will be perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, a 5% chance of precipitation and only 6.5 MPH winds forecasted.  I expect the Jaguars to score 30-plus in this one and the Texans to get 20-plus to easily cash this OVER 44 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Indianapolis Colts +8

This looks like a great time to 'sell high' on the Baltimore Ravens.  They have won and covered each of their first two games this season.  They were far less dominant than the 25-9 score against Houston in the opener would indicate.  They were actually outgained by the Texans in that game and held to 265 total yards.

Last week the Ravens upset the Bengals 27-24 as 3-point road underdogs.  But the Bengals lost by 21 to Cleveland in the opener and have been a disaster to start the season.  Joe Burrow re-aggravated his calf injury in the loss and may not play this week.  The Bengals are a mess.  So those two wins don't look that great now.

The Colts deserved to cover in their opener against the Jaguars, but lost 31-21 as they failed to get it in from the 1-yard line in the final seconds and blew a 4-point 4th quarter lead.  Then last week the Colts jumped out to a 31-10 lead on the Texans before calling off the dogs.  The 31-20 final wasn't indicative of how lopsided this game was.

QB Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion early in that game, and the Colts didn't miss a beat with Gardner Minshew, who is arguably the best backup QB in the NFL.  Minshew went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The Colts will be fine with Minshew is Richardson cannot play Sunday, and it might actually be an upgrade.

The Ravens want to run the ball, and the Colts have been stout against the run this far.  They are only allowing 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  I think their defense can keep them in this game for four quarters, and whoever is under center will make enough plays to keep this a one-score game either way.  I just think this line should be a touchdown or less, so we are getting some line value at +8.

Like clockwork, the Ravens have a ton of injuries here early in the season again.  They are without RB Dobbins and CB Humphrey.  RB Hill, LT Stanley, C Linderbaum, LB Oweh and S Williams are all questionable.  I think these cluster injuries will catch up to them this week finally.

This is a trap spot for the Ravens.  They are coming off their double-revenge win over the Bengals as they had that game circled after losing in Week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs to the Bengals.  They have been thinking about this game all offseason.  Now they have two division road games against the Browns and Steelers on deck.  This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for the Ravens, another reason they may not bring their best effort.

Plays on road teams (Indianapolis) - after playing their last game on the road in September games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Teams aren't tired this early in the season, so these back-to-back road games don't affect them nearly as much as they would later in the season.  This has actually been a very profitable spot to back these back-to-back road teams early.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* New Mexico State/Hawaii Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -2.5

Hawaii has played an absolutely brutal schedule thus far and it's why they are 1-3.  Their three losses came to Vanderbilt, Stanford and Oregon and they were competitive in two of them.  Their lone win came 31-20 as 8-point favorites over Albany, one of the better FCS teams in the country.

New Mexico State is 2-2 against an extremely soft schedule.  Their two wins came against Western Illinois and New Mexico.  Western Illinois is one of the worst FCS teams, and New Mexico is one of the worst FBS teams.  They were also upset as 7-point home favorites in a 30-41 loss to UMass, also one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  They were blasted 33-17 at Liberty and outgained by 187 yards in that defeat.

This will be Hawaii's second-easiest game this season and New Mexico State's second-toughest.  This line suggest these teams are pretty much even if you give Hawaii 2.5 points for home-field advantage.  I just don't believe that's the case as the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the superior team, and they'll win this one by a field goal or more at home.

Hawaii is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with New Mexico State, including 5-0 SU at home.  Timmy Chang is 9-2 ATS after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game as the coach of Hawaii.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.