Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Philadelphia Phillies -119 

I’m surprised the Phillies are such small favorites today.  I think there’s value on them especially after they were -165 favorites yesterday.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an embarrassing 11-19 loss to the Marlins Friday in which they blew a 7-0 lead. 

Zach Eflin is 3-2 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in seven career starts against the Marlins.  His last two starts against the Marlins in 2019 have gone very well for him as he has allowed just 4 earned runs in 15 innings for a 2.40 ERA. 

Jordan Yamamoto is 4-4 with a 4.59 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.81 ERA in six home starts for the Marlins.  Yamamoto has posted a 6.00 ERA in two starts against the Phillies in 2019, giving up 6 earned runs in 9 innings. 

Philadelphia is 11-1 after a combined score of 17 or more runs this season.  Miami is 1-5 in Yamamoto’s last six starts.  The Marlins are 16-35 in their last 51 games overall.  Bet the Phillies Saturday.

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15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+110) 

The Cardinals are fighting for an NL central title, while the Rockies are out of playoff contention.  The Cardinals are playing like it, going 11-3 in their last 14 games overall with nine of those wins coming by two runs or more.  The Rockies are just 14-32 in their last 46 games overall. 

Dakota Hudson is also one of the hottest starters in baseball.  He is 2-0 with a. 1.08 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 5-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 home starts this season. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-3 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in four road starts. 

Hudson is 11-1 against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Hudson is 10-1 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-6 in Gonzalez’s last six starts.  St. Louis is 8-1 in its last nine home games.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-145) 

Instead of laying -300 or more on the Twins money line, I’ll back the Twins at a much cheaper price of -145 here on the run line.  They are fighting for an AL Central title and will be highly motivated following an upset loss to the Detroit Tigers yesterday. 

Edwin Jackson is arguably the worst starter in baseball, and the Twins should feast on him tonight.  Jackson is 2-5 with an 8.25 ERA and 1.834 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with an 11.68 ERA and 2.514 WHIP in three road starts.  He is also 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota. 

Kyle Gibson is having a solid season for the Twins at 11-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Gibson has had great success against the Tigers of late, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts against them. 

The Tigers are 14-49 in their last 63 games following a win.  Detroit is 12-43 in its last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss.  Minnesota is 44-20 in Gibson’s last 64 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 6-2 in Gibson’s last eight starts against the Tigers.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -3 

No analysis for preseason. 

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans PK 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* Arizona/Hawaii 2019 CFB Season Opener on Hawaii +11 

It’s an exciting time of year with college football starting back up on August 24th.  And I’m expecting we could have a huge upset right out of the gates here as Hawaii is more than capable of hanging toe-to-toe with Arizona in the opener.  I’ll take the whopping 11 points for some insurance, though. 

Hawaii OVER 5.5 is one of my favorite season win total bets this year.  There’s several reasons why I’m high on this team.  They return a whopping 18 starters in Year 4 under head coach Nick Rolovic, and this is easily his best team yet.  That’s saying a lot after the Rainbow Warriors went 8-6 last season. 

QB Cole McDonald was one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not many people heard about.  He threw for 3,875 yards with a 36-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 359 yards and four scores.  Most impressively, he put up those numbers despite missing two starts, and played through a torn ligament in his knee for much of the year. 

Now McDonald is back healthy and heading an offense that returns nine starters after returning just three last year.  This is a much more veteran unit that returns all 5 O-Line starters and adds in an Arizona transfer and two JUCO’s who redshirted last year.  McDonald has two stud receivers in Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward, who combined for 130 receptions, 1,835 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. 

Defensively the Rainbow Warriors should be greatly improved.  They gave up 35.1 points and 440 yards per game last season with just five returning starters.  Now they have nine starters back on defense, including each of their top three tacklers from a year ago.  With how good the offense is going to be, the defense just needs to be average for this team to win its share of games. 

Arizona UNDER 6.5 is one of my favorite win total bets as well, so this is an easy choice here.  The Wildcats went just 5-7 in Kevin Sumlin’s first season on the job after he was oustered from Texas A&M.  Sumlin has always been able to recruit decently, but he’s just obviously not a very good head coach. 

You’re going to hear a lot about Arizona QB Khalil Tate once again this season.  He was among the Heisman favorites last year, but injuries hampered him last year and he hardly used his dual-threat ability, only rushing for 224 yards and two touchdowns.  He had to become a pocket passer, which he’s clearly not as he completed just 56.3% of his passes last year.  I think he’s one of the most overrated players in college football, and he’ll once again be protected by the play calling because he means to much to their team, so he won’t run that much. 

Making matters worse for Tate is that each of his top four receivers from last year are now gone.  The Wildcats are expected to start a pair of freshmen at receiver, and chemistry and communication will be an issue in Game 1.  I think their offense will be fine, but it’s no more potent than what Hawaii will put on the field with McDonald and company. 

Defensively, the Wildcats are no better than Hawaii, either.  They gave up 32.6 points per game and 432 yards per game last season despite having eight returning starters.  They also have eight starters back this season on D, so the improvements can’t be great.  This is one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 and the talent level just isn’t there to make much progress. 

Last year, Arizona lost at home to BYU 23-28 as 10-point favorites.  They also lost at Houston 18-45 as 3-point underdogs.  The year before they lost at home to Houston 16-19.  And the year before that, they lost at home to BYU 16-18.  They have obviously been vulnerable early in the season in non-conference play, and I think that’s the case here against a Hawaii team that is one of the most underrated in the country. 

Last year, Hawaii went 4-1 in non-conference play en route to a 6-1 start.  They upset Colorado State as 16-point road dogs, upset Navy as 11-point home dogs, and beat both Rice and Duquesne handily.  Their only loss in the non-conference was at Army 21-28, and that was a terrible body clock game that started at 9:00 AM for them.  They hung right with an Army team for four quarters that won a school-record 11 games last year. 

Hawaii is notoriously underrated to start each season, going 26-11 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.  Arizona is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Wildcats are just 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in all games played away from home the last three years.  Arizona is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 true road games.  The Rainbow Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.