Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Washington Nationals -107

The New York Mets (25-31) have lost three of their last four to basically give themselves no chance of making the postseason.  I think that realization will hit them like a ton of bricks when they embark on this four-game series with the Washington Nationals.

The Nationals have been eliminated for a while, but they’ve continued to play out the string.  The Nationals have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 36 runs in those five contests, or an average of 7.2 runs per game.

Patrick Corbin is the better starter in this matchup.  The left-hander has been at his best at home this season with a 3.16 ERA in five home starts.  Corbin has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts against the Mets, going 3-1 with a 3.59 ERA during this stretch.

The Mets are 0-9 off three straight games against an AL opponent this season.  New York is 7-14 (-12.4 units) against left-handed starters this season.  Bet the Nationals Thursday.

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15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -119

The Houston Astros are trying to clinch a playoff spot at 28-28 on the season.  A win or two more will do it.  It starts tonight against the Texans Rangers.

Christian Javier is 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in his last three.  Javier is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in one career start against Texas, which came back on September 2nd when he allowing just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings.

Lance Lynn is having another good season for Texas.  But Lynn has struggled mightily in recent starts against the Astros, going 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts against them.  He has allowed 16 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 innings in those three starts.

Texas is ice cold at the plate and is 5-21 after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season, so it has happened often.  They are hitting just .213 and scoring 3.6 runs per game as a team.  Roll with the Astros Thursday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +6

The Denver Nuggets are so resilient.  They came up with a big effort in Game 2 as 5.5-point dogs and lost at the buzzer, 103-105.  And they rebounded with a 114-106 victory as 5.5-point dogs in Game 3.  Now they are catching 6 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Nuggets are now 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  I’m not about to go against this trend, instead I’ll back it as Denver continues coming up big when behind tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

20* UAB/South Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +7

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  I also cashed in South Alabama +10 in a 24-27 loss to Tulane in which they blew a big lead two weeks ago.  And now the Jaguars are catching 7 points against UAB and I believe it’s too much as this team doesn’t get the respect they deserve.

I did like QB Desmond Trotter, who played well at the end of last year and to start this year. But Campbell clearly sees something great in Chance Lovertich, who replaced Trotter against Tulane and went 18-of-29 passing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  So I trust his decision here to start him.

UAB struggled to put away FCS Central Arkansas in a 35-45 win as 21.5-point favorites in their opener.  The Blazers also lost 14-31 at Miami and failed to cover as 15.5-point dogs.  Bill Clark is doing a good job at UAB, but the secret is out on this team, and they’ve gone from being undervalued in recent seasons to overvalued in 2020.  And now they’ve lost starting QB Tyler Johnson III to a shoulder injury.  Redshirt freshman Bryce Lucero will get the start, and he went just 4-of-12 for 55 yards in relief against Miami.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3

The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season.  But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes.  They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week.  And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.

The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS.  They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards.  And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee.  Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.

The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role.  They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.

Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Dolphins Thursday.