Jack Jones of BetFirm Daily Free Sports Picks & Predictions

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Mets/Yankees OVER 8

The Mets are quietly as hot as any team in baseball at the plate right now.  They have gone 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  They have done the heavy lifting scoring a total of 64 runs in those eight games for an average of 8.0 runs per game.

The Yankees just got Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger back in the lineup and are back to being potent offensively.  They have gone 8-3-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of those 12 games.

The Yankees are capable of covering this total on their own against Zach Thornton, who is 3-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 12 starts this season.  Thornton allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 innings of a 9-5 loss to the light-hitting Giants in his last start.

Gerrit Cole clearly does not enjoy facing the Mets.  He has allowed a whopping 12 earned runs and 7 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  Cole has been off his game in his last three starts as well, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings between the Mets and Yankees finishing with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  This total of 8 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Guardians/Twins OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Guardians and Twins today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  Both of these starting pitchers are in over their heads today.

Connor Prielipp is an absolute gas can for the Twins going 4-7 with a 5.25 ERA in 19 starts and two relief appearances.  Prielipp has really struggled of late, allowing 3 earned runs or more in five consecutive starts with a 7.76 ERA during this stretch allowing 23 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 6-5 win over the Guardians in his last start against them on July 8th.

The Guardians will go with an opener in Daniel Espino, a rookie who will make his first start after nine games out of the bullpen.  That will put a ton of pressure on their bullpen, which has seen heavy usage here down the stretch.

The Guardians are going through their best offensive stretch of the season scoring 3 runs or more in 17 of their last 20 games, and 4 runs or more in 15 of them.  The Twins have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 82-62-5 OVER in all games scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short with the wind blowing out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The Blue Jays have come to life at the plate here down the stretch scoring at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 13 games.  The Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in in four straight and 11 of their last 17 games overall.  Both offenses should stay hot today.

Kyle Bradish is 7-13 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 4-6 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Bradish allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Blue Jays in his last start against them on June 6th.

Spencer Miles will serve as an opener to pave the way for gas can Spencer Arrighetti.  Miles allowed 6 earned runs in 3 innings of a 9-5 loss to the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.  Arrighetti is 7-9 with a 5.12 ERA in 19 starts and two relief appearances this season.  He has been an absolute disaster lately and will get rocked by the Orioles.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Orioles and Blue Jays with 10 or more combined runs in all seven meetings.  This total of 8.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Mariners/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The A's have gone 42-28-3 OVER in all home games this season.  Most of their totals are set at 10 or higher at home, and this total of 9.5 is too short, especially with the temp at 80 at game time with 16 MPH winds blowing out to center.  There will be double-digit winds blowing out to center for the entirety of this game.

The A's have gone 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall.  The A's have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall despite playing six of those games on the road.  The Mariners are going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  They are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in seven of them.  They have scored 4 runs or more in eight of their last 11 games.

I love the fact that this is a rematch from six days ago when Bryan Woo took on Gage Jump.  It will be a big advantage for the hitters getting to see these same two starters for the second time in less than a week.  And there's not a lot to like about either starter tonight.

Woo has been terrible on the road this season going 3-8 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 starts away from Seattle.  Jump has been terrible at home going 3-5 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 10 home starts.  He has allowed 6 earned runs in 9 innings in two starts against the Mariners this season.

Both bullpens are also trash.  Seattle has a 4.50 ERA on the season and a 5.13 ERA on the road.  The A's have a 5.34 ERA on the season and a 6.48 ERA at home.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last eight meetings between the A's and Mariners.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: San Diego State/UCLA OVER 54.5

UCLA had one of the best hires of the offseason when they nabbed Bob Chesney of James Madison.  Chesney led the Dukes to the college football playoff in his 2nd season last year.  He took Holy Cross to the playoffs in four of his previous five seasons there.  Chesney is one of the best young coaches in the country.

Chesney was able to get seven starters to stick around, including QB Nico Iamaleava.  He added 11 transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Bruins basically 18 returning starters.  A lot of the transfers come with Chesney from JMU.  That includes RB Wayne Knight who rushed for 1,373 yards and averaged 6.6 per carry last season.

UCLA lit up Cal 45-24 for 69 combined points in the opener behind 461 total yards and 8.5 yards per play from the offense.  Nico threw for 184 yards and rushed for a score in the win.  Anthony Woods and Wayne Knight combined for 189 rushing yards and five scores on just 16 carries.  They allowed 410 total yards to Cal in the win.

San Diego State really profiles as an OVER team this season.  They were led by their defense last season that returned 10 starters.  But they lost their stud defensive coordinator in the offseason, and new coordinator Demetrius Sumler has his hands full.  San Diego State only returns three starters on defense while losing eight of its top nine tacklers.

It's been surprising to see head coach Sean Lewis turn the Aztecs into more of a defensive team in his first two seasons.  But that is no longer.  The architect of the Flash Fast offense at Kent State, and he will call his own plays in his third season on the job and lean into the fact that the strength of this team is now on offense.

The Aztecs return eight starters on offense this season.  QB Jayden Denegal is back, RB Lucky Sutton (1,297 yards, 10 TD) and the top four receivers are all back giving the Aztecs a talented, experienced group of playmakers to lean on.  They will do enough offensively to contribute to us cashing this OVER 54.5 ticket.

San Diego State beat Portland State 53-20 for 73 combined points in Week 1.  The Aztecs even kneeled at the goal line in the final seconds as they were going in to make it 60.  FCS Portland State managed 376 total yards on their defense, so you can just imagine what this high-octane UCLA offense is going to put up in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7137-6238 Run L3288 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $307,790! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $170,800 since January 1st, 2022!

No. 3 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L14 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1219-1021 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $100,920! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25!

Jack is coming off a 3-0 Friday SWEEP of the books! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 13-Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge are FIVE 20* Top Plays including his 20* Ohio State/Texas ABC No-Brainer in the biggest game of the day!

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15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oregon State +26

Oregon State is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 2-10 season last year.  First-year head coach Jamarcus Shepard has earned this opportunity after being an assistant at Alabama, Washington and Washington State prior.  Offensive coordinator Mitch Dahlen is from the Kalen DeBoer tree following him from Washington to Alabama before coming here, a noted massive Oregon State fan.  And Shepard was able to nab a veteran defensive coordinator in Mike MacIntyre, one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.

The cupboard was not bare for Shepard with 10 returning starters.  He brought in Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson and started him right away over incumbent Maalik Murphy.  Atkinson went 29-of-48 for 376 yards and a TD while also rushing for a score in a 33-20 loss to Houston as 20.5-point road dogs in the opener.  That is a Houston team that is a Big 12 title contender off a 10-3 season last year with a ton of returning talent and transfers.

In fact, I think Houston will be every bit as good as Texas Tech this season.  The Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abiline Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.  Abilene Christian lost 21-14 to lowly Lamar the week prior.

Now Texas Tech hits the road for the first time.  They beat Oregon State 45-14 at home last season for a 31-point victory.  It will be a different story in Corvallis with the Beavers giving the Red Raiders are much stiffer test this time around.  The talent on these teams is much closer than this spread would indicate.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on NDSU/Air Force UNDER 47.5

The clock is going to be constantly running in this matchup between two teams who are run-heavy on offense.  Air Force runs the triple-option so that's self-explanatory, and NDSU has always been a run-heavy program.

NDSU beat Jacksonville State 33-7 in the opener with 44 rush attempts and Fordham 38-0 last week with 43 rush attempts.  It's clear the Bison have an elite defense again.  They have allowed just 52 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry through two games.  They will be able to hold up against Air Force's triple-option.

I think the Falcons will have one of the most improved defenses in the country this season.  They return eight starters and should get back to being the type of unit that allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five consecutive seasons from 2019-23.  Last season was the aberration, not the norm for this Troy Calhoun defense.

Air Force beat Duquesne 34-0 in the opener behind 71 rush attempts.  The defense held Duquesne to 107 total yards and 2.4 yards per play.  These Air Force totals are inflated early in the season because they played in so many shootouts last year with a poor defense.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER 47.5 here.  There will also be double-digit winds blowing across the field in this game that will affect passing and kicking games for both teams and help keep it UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UCLA -11.5

UCLA had one of the best hires of the offseason when they nabbed Bob Chesney of James Madison.  Chesney led the Dukes to the college football playoff in his 2nd season last year.  He took Holy Cross to the playoffs in four of his previous five seasons there.  Chesney is one of the best young coaches in the country.

Chesney was able to get seven starters to stick around, including QB Nico Iamaleava and three of the top six tacklers on defense.  He added 11 transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Bruins basically 18 returning starters.  A lot of the transfer come with Chesney from JMU.  That includes RB Wayne Knight who rushed for 1,373 yards and averaged 6.6 per carry last season.  He absolutely crushed in the transfer portal, and I expect the Bruins to hit the ground running this season.

UCLA lit up Cal 45-24 in the opener behind 461 total yards and 8.5 yards per play from the offense.  Nico threw for 184 yards and rushed for a score in the win.  Anthony Woods and Wayne Knight combined for 189 rushing yards and five scores on just 16 carries.  They held what is a very talented Cal offense to just 4.7 yards per play, outgaining them by 3.8 yards per play.

San Diego State was led by its defense last season that returned 10 starters.  The Aztecs allowed just 15.4 points per game in 2025 after allowing 29.6 points per game in 2024.  But they lost their stud defensive coordinator in the offseason, and new coordinator Demetrius Sumler has his hands full.  San Diego State only returns three starters on defense while losing eight of its top nine tacklers.

SDSU beat FCS Portland State 53-20 in the opener, failing to cover as massive 38.5-point favorites.  The Aztecs only outgained Portland State by 18 total yards in the win.  It was a very misleading final and a much closer game than the 33-point margin would indicate.  We'll take advantage of that misleading final which has given us ample value to back UCLA.

San Diego State does have eight starters back on offense and figures to be better with all of its top skill players returning.  However, this was a poor offense last season scoring 26.4 points per game after scoring 21.3 points per game in 2024.  And I think they have a low ceiling because they are sticking with Jayden Dengal as their QB, and I think he's one of the worst QB's in the country.  Denegal only completed 58.8% of his passes for 1,807 yards with a 9-to-8 TD/INT ratio last season.  He also doesn't offer much with his legs rushing for just 99 yards all season last year.  UCLA is the much superior team and it will show on the field and the scoreboard in its home opener Saturday night.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +47.5

While I like Charlotte this season, this more of a early season fade against Ole Miss after making the semifinals of the college football playoff last season.  Nobody expected Pete Golding to be able to take the Rebels on a deep run after Lane Kiffin left for LSU.  But the Rebels played with a chip on their shoulder and were able to retain their coordinators for the playoff run to keep continuity.

That continuity is gone now with a new offensive coordinator in John David Baker and a new defensive coordinator in Bryan Brown.  The Rebels will be fine offensively with QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy back, but they won't match last year's numbers.  They lose their top two receivers and their starting RT and LT, so they could have problems keeping Chambliss protected this season.

The Rebels lose 11 of their top 15 tacklers from last season defensively.  While there is a lot of talent here from the transfer portal, I can't see Ole Miss being as dominant as they have been defensively the past couple seasons.  Expectations were high after a playoff run, but I'll gladly 'sell high' on the Rebels here again after fading them successfully with Louisville +7 in a 41-38 win by Ole Miss in the opener.

Ole Miss came away with that game with serious injury concerns with RB Kewan Lacy and WR Deuce Alexander both leaving the game with injuries among others.  Lacy rushed for 1,567 yards and 8 TD last season while Alexander was their only returning receiver with 44 receptions for 684 yards and 2 TD.  He has 5 receptions for 159 yards and two TD against Louisville and was a big reason they won the game.  

I would bet surprised if Golding doesn't elect to sit his injured players against Charlotte knowing they can win this game without them.  That's especially the case with the biggest game of the season on deck against LSU and Lane Kiffin.  That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot coming off the big National TV win over Louisville at the buzzer last week, and with LSU on deck next week.  Ole Miss isn't worried about covering this game against Charlotte.  They just want to win and advance.

Tim Albin took Ohio to three straight 10-win seasons and its first MAC title since 1968 before taking the job at Charlotte last season.  The cupboard was bare as Charlotte replaced almost everyone.  Now Albin has more of the players he wants in place in Year 2, and the 49ers should be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 1-11 campaign last season that has them undervalued this season.

Yes, Charlotte lost outright 43-41 (OT) to FCS opponent The Citadel in the opener, but that misleading result has provided us with extra line value this week.  Charlotte outgained The Citadel 538 to 400 for the game, or by 138 total yards.  And I really liked what I saw from the new pieces on offense.

Charlotte QB Cole Gonzales went 28-of-41 passing for 322 yards and 3 TD against The Citadel.  He transferred in from Western Carolina after throwing for 6,682 yards and 52 TD the past two seasons there.  App State transfer Khamani Alexander rushed for 138 yards on 14 carries.  Another App State transfer in Jaden Barnes had 7 receptions for 93 yards, while returnee Jaylen Hampton had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 2 TD.

As bad as Charlotte was last season, the 49ers covered in a similar spot in a 35-3 loss at Georgia as 43.5-point dogs.  Now we are catching 47.5 with an even better Charlotte team, and against an Ole Miss team that isn't as good as that Georgia team was.  That's especially the case with all the injuries the Rebels are dealing with right now.  This game will be much closer than this line indicates.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Texas ABC No-Brainer on Texas ML -118

Texas will be out for revenge on Ohio State Saturday.  The Buckeyes knocked them out of the playoffs in 2024 as Ohio State went on to win the national title.  They also won 14-7 at home in the season opener in 2025.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season.

Texas outgained Ohio State 336-203 in that 14-7 defeat, or by 133 total yards.  And that was on the road in the Horseshoe.  Arch Manning improved by leaps and bounds after that game and finished the season playing up to his potential.  He is primed for a big season and is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason.

Now Texas gets Ohio State at home at night in Austin in what will be one of the best home atmospheres of all-time, which is saying something for a program this rich in tradition.  Texas has never been better prepared to beat Ohio State than it is for the season opener this season, spending all offseason thinking about revenge and working even harder to get it.

"The biggest common thread in both games was we essentially played behind," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday about the last two meetings with Ohio State. "And that's an uncomfortable feeling when you feel like you're having to play catch-up. You have to take a few more risks."

"It's not all the time you get a second chance to play another team after a rough loss," Manning said Monday. "We're all excited for the opportunity. I think we've all grown mentally and physically."

Texas blasted Texas State 59-7 in the opener as 29.5point favorites.  That's a Texas State team that is one of the best Group of 6 teams in all of college football and brought a lot back from last season, especially offensively.  To hold that offense to just 7 points is a sign of things to come for this elite Texas defense.

Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3 as 49.5-point favorites in its opener.  The Buckeyes tacked on a late TD to try and cover the spread late.  That's a Ball State team that is one of the worst in the entire country and offered nothing offensively.  I would not be surprised of Ball State proves to be the worst team in the MAC by season's end.

Ohio State has a solid offense but it's worth noting it lost coordinator Brian Hartline to South Florida.  There will be some growing pains early with new coordinator Arthur Smith.  The bigger concern is a defense that lost 7 NFL draft picks including 3 first-round picks.  Only four starters are back and they lose each of their top five tacklers.  They will get tested in a big way this week by Manning and arguably the most talented group of receivers in the country.  Plus RB Hollywood Smothers, a NC State transfer, is absolutely electric and gives them a viable rushing attack.  Bet Texas on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 40.5

Death, taxes and the UNDER in the Cy-Hawk rivalry between Iowa State and Iowa.  The UNDER is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings in this rivalry.  Iowa State and Iowa have combined for 29, 39, 33 and 17 points in their last four meetings.  It will be more of the same in the 2026 version.

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  So they can't run the ball but they can stop the run, and that will come in handy against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes rushed for 289 yards in their 40-0 win over Northern Illinois in the opener.  They are going with two different QB's as neither has emerged, which is a bad sign for another poor Iowa QB performance this season.  They will rely on their run game, and I think Iowa State can hold up enough to limit Iowa to less than 30 points.

I don't see Iowa State scoring more than 10 points against this elite Iowa defense.  The Hawkeyes didn't allow a single first down in the first 10 drives to Northern Illinois in the shutout win.  They did give up some yardage late in garbage time, but still held NIU to just 120 total yards and 2.2 yards per play.  This is yet another elite Phil Parker defense in Iowa City.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UNLV/North Texas UNDER 57.5

UNLV lost 27-21 at home to Memphis in Week 0 for just 48 combined points.  The offense looked good for nearly 3 quarters before losing two starting offensive linemen to injury, including their center.  They could not do anything on offense after losing their center Austin Boyd, and they continue having troubles offensively without him.

That proved to be the case again last week as UNLV beat Hawaii 21-6 for just 27 combined points.  UNLV had 364 yards but held Hawaii to 294 yards.  They rushed 41 times against Memphis and 43 times against Hawaii.  They clearly want to run the football with dual-threat QB Jackson Arnold, who is much more dangerous with his legs than with his arm.

North Texas underwent one of the biggest makeovers of the offseason.  Head coach Eric Morris and his fast-paced offense left for Oklahoma State and brought all of his best players with him.  That left the cupboard very bare for new head coach Neil Brown, who was fired at West Virginia.  Zero starters returned for the Mean Green as Brown had to do everything through the transfer portal.

QB Tayven Jackson was a decent get but he's on his 4th different program for a reason because he's just not that good.  Brown brought WVU transfer Jahiem White with him from WVU at RB, and he wants to be a run-heavy offense to utilize the dual-threat ability of Jackson plus White.  So we have two run-heavy teams here to keep the clock moving.

One other factor here is that there will be 10-15 MPH winds and temps in the 100's in Denton on Saturday.  I think both offenses will go slower due to the heat to try and stay as fresh as possible to make it through this game.  And the passing and kicking games for both teams will be affected by the wind.  That makes for an easy UNDER here.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/Notre Dame UNDER 55.5

Notre Dame is coming off one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  This should have been more of a 27-13 game for 40 combined points given the stats.  And this total is inflated as a result.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Without question, Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Fighting Irish returned nine starters on defense this season which is unheard of for a program of their caliber.  They allowed 17.6 points per game last season and will be even better this season.  They allowed 15 points per game the two previous seasons under Marcus Freeman.

Scott Abel did a great job of getting Rice to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with just 7 returning starters.  The highlight was an upset win over a very good UConn team.  Now Abel has more of the pieces in place to run the scheme he wants to run offensively, which is a run-heavy scheme under his longtime coordinator Vince Munch dating back to his time at Davidson.

Brown led Rice to a 31-3 win over Houston Christian in the opener.  The Owls rushed for a whopping 465 yards in the win, showing what they are capable of on the ground.  They only attempted 10 passes for the entire game.  And when I'm backing an UNDER, I want teams to be able to run the football and churn the clock.  I don't want a bunch of incomplete passes.  Rice is the perfect big underdog to do just that.  Notre Dame will be happy to run the ball and the clock in the 2H and just get out of there with a win.  There won't be enough possessions in this game for it to go over.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rice +44.5

Notre Dame is coming off one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

After playing at Lambeau Field against Wisconsin, and with Michigan State on deck, this is a sandwich spot for Notre Dame.  I don't think they will motivated to beat Rice by 45-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this inflated spread.  I also don't think Notre Dame is explosive enough offensively to win by this margin this season.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.  It's worth noting ND has key injuries to S Tae Johnson, NT Jason Onye and C Ashton Craig who will all likely be sitting out this unimportant game in the grand scheme  of things.  Coaches will play it smart with their injuries.

Scott Abel did a great job of getting Rice to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with just 7 returning starters.  The highlight was an upset win over a very good UConn team.  Now Abel has more of the pieces in place to run the scheme he wants to run offensively, which is a run heavy scheme under his longtime coordinator Vince Munch dating back to his time at Davidson.

Senior QB Jacurri Brown was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school.  He made 3 starters for Miami and two starts for UCF before coming here.  This is his last stand and he wants to make the most of it.  

Brown led Rice to a 31-3 win over Houston Christian in the opener.  The Owls rushed for a whopping 465 yards in the win, showing what they are capable of on the ground.  And when I'm getting 44.5 points, I want my team to be able to run the football and churn the clock.  I don't want a bunch of incomplete passes.  Rice is the perfect big underdog to do just that.  There won't be enough possessions in this game for Notre Dame to cover.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -120

Texas State is one of the better Group of 6 programs in the country.  GJ Kinne enters his 4th season in San Marcos and is one of the best young head coaches in the country.  He has led the Bobcats to bowl games in each of his first three seasons, and honestly it could have been a lot better as they have had some very poor luck in close games the last two seasons in particular.

There was a stretch last season where the Bobcats lost three straight heartbreakers by 1 to Arkansas State, and in OT to both Troy and Marshall.  But they finished strong blowing out their final four opponents by 31, 27, 23 and 17 points.  And they carry that momentum with them into 2026 with 11 returning starters, which is a big number for a Group of 6 program in today's college football.

The offense in particular will be one of the best in the country after averaging 36.5 points per game and 473 yards per game last season.  Seven starters are back on offense including QB Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards with a 21-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 744 yards and a whopping 17 TD as a freshman last season.  Joining him will be a pair of 1,000-yard receivers from last season in Beau Sparks (1,200 yards, 10 TD) and Chris Dawn (1,007 yards, 4 TD).  The O-Line is anchored by returning starters in LT Sully Burns and C Justin DeLeon.

Texas State returns three of hits top five tacklers on defense in FS Nolan, LB Jones and LB Cooks.  The Bobcats add in a ton of quality transfers on D and should have one of the best defenses of the Kinne era.  Things are looking up for Texas State in 2026.

I think we are getting some line value here after Texas State got blasted 59-7 at Texas in the opener.  But that was one of the most misleading finals of Week 1.  The Bobcats were only outgained by 167 yards, which isn't bad going up against one of the best teams in the country in Texas.  They put up 349 total yards on that vaunted Texas defense.

While Texas State was playing one of the best teams in the country, UTSA was playing one of the worst teams in FCS in UTRGV in Week 1.  The Miners won 45-16 in a very misleading final.  They only outgained UTRGV by 105 yards in the win.  They allowed 422 yards, and this UTSA defense is clearly a weakness once again this season.

UTSA went 7-6 last season thanks to a 5-2 record in home/neutral games.  But the Miners have been awful on the road, going 2-10 SU in true road games over the last two seasons.  And their two road wins last season weren't impressive at all as they beat Colorado State 17-16 as 4-point favorites and lowly Charlotte 28-7 as 17-point favorites.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Temple, lost by 38 at North Texas, lost by 32 at USF and lost by 18 at Texas A&M.  They went 0-6 in true road games in 2024 with two upset losses.

UTSA only brings back two starters on defense this season, and defense has been its weakness the last few seasons.  They allowed 30.1 points per game in 2024 and 28.8 points per game in 2025.  They do return six starters on offense including QB Owen McCown, but they lose leading rusher Robert Henry (1,045 yards, 9 TD) and leading receiver McCuin (726 yards, 8 TD).  They lose four of their top five receivers overall.

Texas State beat UTSA 49-10 at home in 2024.  Texas State beat UTSA 43-36 on the road in 2025.  Jackson threw for 286 yards and rushed for two scores in the win.  McCown was dreadful, going 23-of-43 passing for 219 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as the Bobcats are once again the superior team in 2026.  Bet Texas State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Georgia Southern/Clemson UNDER 56.5

Clemson has an elite defense every year and that will prove to be the case again this season.  But the offense may be the worst of the Dabo Swinney era.  Clemson was held to 3 points in the first 57 minutes against LSU before getting a TD in garbage time.

The Tigers managed just 8 first downs for the entire game.  Starting QB Christopher Vizzina went 10-of-16 passing for 83 yards, and backup Reynolds went 4-of-6 for 22 yards.  No question the Tigers will have more success offensively against Georgia Southern than LSU, but they aren't going to hang 50 on them.

Clay Helton is known as an offensive coach and that reputation has these Georgia Southern totals inflated dating back to last season.  Georgia Southern is now 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall finishing with 55 or fewer combined points in four straight.  That's after a 31-0 win over Charleston Southern in the opener.

Georgia Southern returned 6 starters on defense but zero starters on offense this season.  This will be Helton's best defense yet with seven of the top 13 tacklers back.  But this could be his worst offense.  Max Johnson never made it as a college QB and now he has found his way to Georgia Southern.  They have to replace a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, QB French French who transferred to Cincinnati, and all five offensive linemen.  I could see Clemson coming close to shutting out Georgia Southern today to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 56.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -3.5

Army returned 11 starters this season which is quite a few for a service academy.  Jeff Monken has the Black Knights as one of the most consistent winning programs in the country and it's not about to stop any time soon.  Army has finished .500 or better in six consecutive seasons.

What's really exciting for Army is that eight starters return on offense, including QB Cale Hellums.  He rushed for 1,223 yards and 18 TD last season.  Four starters are back along the offensive line and this is a Joe Moore Award contender once again after winning the award for the nation's best offensive line in 2024 just two seasons ago.

Hellums and that dominant offensive line did some work in Week 1 paving the way for 569 rushing yards and 10.0 yards per carry in a 59-3 win over Bryant.  Army held Bryant to 165 yards and 3.1 per play.  The Black Knights always have an elite defense, and that will be the case again.  They have allowed 23 points per game or fewer in six consecutive seasons.

But while I'm high on Army, this is as much of a fade of South Florida as anything.  The Bulls lost head coach Alex Golesh to Auburn and he took all his best players with him.  The Bulls only have three returning starters and a new head coach in Brian Hartline, who was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State prior.  This is a massive rebuilding job for Hartline, and after Week 1 it's easy to see this is going to be one of the worst teams in the country.

South Florida beat Florida International 19-9 in Week 1 as 14.5-point home favorites.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  South Florida managed just 208 total yards and 3.7 yards per play, while allowing 381 total yards and 5.1 per play to Florida International.  The Bulls actually got outgained by 173 yards and 1.4 per play by FIU and had no business winning that game.  They were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.  That misleading final is providing tremendous line value to back Army -3.5 here as the much superior team at home.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -17.5

James Franklin is notorious for running it up on overmatched teams.  He knows the spread of every game and has punched in an extra score late to make sure to cover when needed.  And given all the factors leading into this game, the Hokies will have no problem running it up on Old Dominion this week.

Old Dominion upset Virginia Tech 45-26 last season.  You can bet the Hokies have not forgotten and want their revenge.  That loss led the firing of head coach Brent Pry, and the Hokies went on for a disastrous 3-9 season.  Franklin hired Pry to stay on the staff and be their defensive coordinator.  He spent eight seasons under Franklin as the DC at Penn State.  You know Fry wants revenge on ODU, and his players will have his back.

The Hokies have one of the most experienced rosters in all of college football.  They return 15 starters which is rare for the NIL era.  They also added in three transfer starters.  That includes QB Ethank Grunkemeyer and TE Luke Reynolds among several Penn State transfers who came with Franklin to Blacksburg.

Franklin wasn't afraid to run it up even on lowly VMI in their opener.  The Hokies won 73-3 as 54.5-point favorites after leading 45-0 at halftime.  They racked up 619 total yards and 8.6 yards per play while holding their foes to 83 yards and 1.5 per play.  Grunkemeyer finished 17-of-20 passing for 224 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Duke transfer Que'Sean Brown had 6 receptions for 109 yards and a score in his Hokie debut.

While I'm very high on Virginia Tech this season, I'm also very down on Old Dominion, creating the perfect storm for a blowout.  The Monarchs are overvalued off a 10-3 season last year.  They only bring back seven starters from that team, and the losses are huge.  The biggest loss is QB Colton Joseph, who threw for 2,624 yards and 21 TD, while also rushing for 1,007 yards and 13 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country last year.  Joseph is gone to Wisconsin.

The Hokies in particular won't mind not having to face Joseph.  He went 16-of-22 for for 276 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score on the Hokies last season.  The Monarchs only have one starter back on offense.  They lost their offensive coordinator as well, so this will be their worst offense in years.  They break in five new starters along the offensive line which is never good.

Old Dominion was unimpressive in its opener in a 31-10 win over Norfolk State as a 41.5-point favorite.  The Monarchs not only failed to cover, by 20.5 points, the game was actually closer than the final score.  They only outgained Norfolk State by 99 yards and were held to 319 total yards, a sign their offense is going to be terrible.  Norfolk State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  They went 1-11 last season.  They just lost 59-3 to Virginia on Friday.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.