Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

15* Penn State/NC State ESPNU No-Brainer on NC State -4 

NC State is loaded this season.  The Wolfpack brought back three starters from last year, and then added in some tremendous college-ready transfers in Devon Daniels, C.J. Bryce, Blake Harris, Wyatt Walker and Eric Lockett.  They brought back senior Torin Dorn, sharp-shooter Braxton Beverly and junior Markell Johnson, who led the ACC with 7.3 assists per game last year. 

The Wolfpack are off to an 8-1 start this season with heir only loss coming 75-79 at Wisconsin as 6-point dogs.  They have been undervalued all season as they are 7-2 ATS.  Dorn (16.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 47.8% 3-pointers this season) and Johnson (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 48.6% 3-pointers) are doing their thing, while Bryce (12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Daniels (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) are contributing right away as transfers. 

Penn State clearly came into the season overvalued.  The Nittany Lions are just 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS in their nine games this season.  Their five wins have come against North Florida, Jacksonville State, Wright State, VA Tech (at home by 1) and Colgate.  They already have upset losses to DePaul, Bradley and Indiana, and they failed to cover in a loss at Maryland.  This team just isn’t very good. 

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots per game.  The Wolfpack are scoring 88.9 PPG this season, which is 15.9 per game more than their opponents give up on average.  They are also holding teams to 62 PPG, which is 6 points less than their opponents average.  This team is a lot better than they’re getting credit for as only 4-point favorites here, and that will show on the court this afternoon.  Take NC State Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +9 

Wichita State is clearly in rebuilding mode.  The Shockers only returned one starter this season and lost almost every key player from last year’s team that went 25-8.  The only key returnee is SF Markis McDuffie, who is the top returning scorer at only 8.3 PPG. 

It’s no wonder the Shockers are off to a shaky 5-4 start this season.  They lost by 13 at home to LA Tech as 9-point favorites, and they only beat Jacksonville State by 4 last time out at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They have only had two days to get ready for Southern Miss. 

This is a Southern Miss team on the rise.  The Golden Eagles are in their best shape since being hit with a three-year probation from former coach Donnie Tyndall’s tenure.  Fifth-year coach Doc Sadler returns a very experienced team, including four senior starting guards from last year.  Tyree Griffin (15.0 PPG, 5.9 APG last year), Cortez Edwards (16.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG), Dominic Magee (11.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Kevin Holland (6.8 PPG) all returned.  That’s a lot of production. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season.  And their two most impressive performances came in their only two true road games.  They won outright 74-64 at SMU as 9.5-point underdogs, and 81-66 at Troy as 1.5-point dogs.  They certainly won’t be losing by double-digits on the road to this rebuilding Wichita State team tonight. 

Wichita State is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Southern Miss) - in a game involving two up-tempo teams who average 60 or more shots per game, after two straight games where they allowed their opponents to shoot 37% or less are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +7 

I love the spot for Rutgers today.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and will be highly motivated for a victory.  Well, an 11-point loss to Michigan State and a 5-point road loss to Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs aren’t bad losses.  The upset loss at Fordham was, but it was understandable given they stepped out of conference following those losses to MSU and Wisconsin. 

Look for the Scarlet Knights to be refocused and ready to go tonight.  This is a team that got off to a 5-1 start, which includes a 57-54 win at Miami as 11-point dogs.  And their only loss was as dogs to St. John’s up to that point.  So they have been through the gauntlet, playing one of the most difficult schedules in the country to this point.  They won’t be phased at all by this road game at Seton Hall as it will already be their fourth true road game of the season. 

I also love the spot fading Seton Hall.  They are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, an 84-83 win over Kentucky on a neutral last time out.  After beating the Wildcats, who are down this season, they certainly won’t be nearly as motivated to face Rutgers tonight.  This is a Seton Hall team that lost by 23 to Nebraska, was upset by St. Louis at home, and upset by Louisville at home.  Rutgers will have a chance to pull the upset today, too. 

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  It’s a Pirates team that lost their four best players from last year, and one that is being overvalued now off that win over Kentucky.  The Scarlet Knights are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The road team is 20-6 ATSi n the last 26 meetings.  The Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Seton Hall.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have really been playing some great basketball.  It was always going to take them some time to gel with Lebron James and all the new faces, but they’ve certainly gelled now.  The Lakers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games overall coming in. 

And I like backing the Lakers off their tough loss to Houston on Thursday.  They have been really good following a loss, going 5-1 SU in their last six games off a loss.  And the Lakers are rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They should be primed for a big effort here. 

Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot.  They played an overtime game against the Knicks last night and lost 124-126.  That had to take a lot out of them.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And all five starters played at least 36 minutes last night. 

Charlotte is 6-19 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the lsat 22 meetings.  The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Charlotte.  Bet the Lakers Saturday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Tulane -3 

Tulane will be playing in only its second bowl game in the past 16 years.  The Green Wave haven’t won a bowl game since 2002.  It’s safe to say they are excited to be here playing in the Cure Bowl against Louisiana-Lafayette Saturday. 

When you consider how the Green Wave got into a bowl game, you know they’re excited to be here.  Let’s just look back to last year when they finished 5-7 and lost to SMU 38-41 in their final game of the season.  They were stopped at the SMU 1-yard line as time expired and they didn’t have any timeouts left.  They spent all offseason thinking about how close they were to making a bowl. 

Then it looked gloomy this season for Tulane after a 2-5 start to the season.  However, the Green Wave went 4-1 over their final five games, and the key was Justin McMillan taking over as starting quarterback.  He has 13 touchdowns (9 passing, 4 rushing) with only three interceptions during this five-game stretch.  And the Green Wave beat Navy in dramatic comeback fashion in the season finale, converting a 2-point conversion in the closing seconds to win 29-28.  I have no doubt the Green Wave want to be here and will give an ‘A-plus’ effort. 

Louisiana-Lafayette won the weak Sun Belt West Division this season.  That afforded them the opportunity to play in the Sun Belt Championship against Appalachian State.  They gave a good showing, but lost 19-30.  I think they were certainly more motivated in that game against Appalachian State than they will be in this bowl game against Tulane.  That was for a championship, this is just for a win. 

Tulane has the better defense between these two teams, while Lafayette has the better offense.  However, I think the matchup favors Tulane on both sides of the ball.  Both teams love to run the football, so stopping the run will be key.  Tulane rushes for 208 yards per game, while Louisiana rushes for 229 yards per game.  Well, Tulane only gives up 155 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry, holding opponents to 50 yards per game and 0.7 per carry less than their season averages (205 YPG, 4.7 YPC).  Louisiana gives up 209 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry, giving up 27 yards and 0.2 per carry more than their opponents average (182 YPG, 4.8 YPC) on the season. 

Tulane head coach Willie Fritz is 12-3 ATS vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached.  His teams feast on these poor rushing defenses because of their triple-option scheme on offense.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

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20* MTSU/App State New Orleans Bowl BAILOUT on Middle Tennessee +7 

Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield has moved on to coach Louisville.  Teams in December bowl games whose coaches were either fired or left to coach elsewhere last season went 1-5 ATS.  It always leaves a lot of questions surrounding the program and a ton of distractions for the players when a coach leaves. 

I don’t think Appalachian State will be focused at all with Satterfield gone.  The Mountaineers have already accomplished all they wanted to this season, and losing to Middle Tennessee isn’t going to change that.  They won the Sun Belt title and have already won 10 games, so there’s nothing left for them to play for. 

Middle Tennessee comes in with a sour taste in its mouth from a 2-point loss to UAB in the Conference USA Championship Game.  The Blue Raiders have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss, so they have been a resilient bunch.  And I look for that to be the case again here as the Blue Raiders clearly want to be playing in this game. 

This is the final opportunity for head coach Rick Stockstill and son Brent Stockstill to go to battle together.  Stockstill is a redshirt senior quarterback who will be playing his final game at Middle Tennessee.  He is the leader of this team and will have his guys ready to go.  Stockstill was already the school’s all-time leading passer prior to this season, and he is completing 70.4% of his passes with a 28-to-8 TD/INT ratio this year. 

The Blue Raiders come in playing their best football of the season.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have outgained each of their last five opponents by an average of 145.4 yards per game.  That’s impressive when you consider they’ve played C-USA champ UAB twice and Kentucky on the road during this stretch. 

There’s no doubt the Blue Raiders have played the tougher schedule of these two teams as well.  They played three SEC bowl teams in Georgia, Kentucky and Vanderbilt all on the road in the non-conference.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers played the 132nd-ranked schedule in the country this season.  They’ve played an extremely weak slate since their loss to Penn State in the opener, and they’re still getting too much respect from that OT loss. 

I’m getting the more motivated team, and arguably the better team, catching a touchdown in the New Orleans Bowl.  Sign me up.  Bet Middle Tennessee State Saturday night. 

15* CFB Saturday Early Bowl ANNIHILATOR on North Texas +8.5 

The North Texas Mean Green certainly want to be here in this New Mexico Bowl Saturday.  Sitting at 9-3, they have a chance to win 10 games for the first time in nearly 70 years.  They are 2-7 all-time in bowl games, so they don’t get to go bowling very often.  And they want to make amends for their loss to Troy last year.  Plus, head coach Seth Littrell turned down the Kansas State job to stay here, so his players will go to war with him. 

This is a very experienced Mean Green team that returned 17 starters from a team that also won nine games last season.  And they were even better this year, as their three losses all came by 8 points or fewer and by a combined 13 points, and they led by double-digits in all three.  That’s how close this team was to being 12-0. 

Improvement came from a defense that gave up 35 points and 431 yards per game last season.  The Mean Green this season only give up 21.8 points and 359.5 yards per game.  And their offense exceeded last years numbers slightly and remains elite, scoring 36.4 points per game and averaging 472.8 yards per game.  QB Mason Fine was already the school’s all-time leading passer coming into the season, and had another big year, throwing for 3,734 yards with a 27-to-5 TD/INT ratio. 

My favorite stat on this North Texas team is that they were the only team in the country to outgain every opponent they played this year.  Even Alabama was outgained by Georgia in the SEC Championship.  The Mean Green are outgaining opponents by 113.3 yards per game on the season.  That’s the sign of a good team and one that I have no problem getting my money behind. 

Utah State head coach Matt Wells has moved on to greener pastures, taking the Texas Tech job.  He is going to bring his assistants with him, though those assistants will stick around to coach the bowl game.  I expect a lack of focus from these Utah State players given the coaching situation.  Plus, teams in December bowl games who lost their head coach last year went 1-5 ATS. 

Another reason the Aggies will be lacking motivation is because they blew a huge opportunity in their regular season finale with a heartbreaking loss to Boise State.  That loss cost them a trip to the Mountain West Championship Game.  Now they have to try and get up to face North Texas when they’d much rather be up against a Power 5 team like both Fresno State and Boise State get the opportunity to as rewards for playing the MWC Championship.  Utah State doesn’t want to be here at all. 

I’ll gladly back the more motivated team here in North Texas catching more than a touchdown against Utah State in the New Mexico Bowl.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Utah State) - off a road loss to a conference opponent, a team that wins more than 80% of their games playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1992.  Take North Texas Saturday. 

15* Browns/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +3 

I faded the Broncos last week and won the 49ers.  And I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.  But a new reason popped up this week.  That loss crushed Denver’s playoff hopes.  They now have just a 5% chance of making the playoffs, and they are four teams ahead of them now fighting for that final wild card spot.  In other words, their season is over, and I think they suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that defeat. 

Denver is overvalued right now due to going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But two of those wins were fluky, and they beat up on an injury-riddled Bengals team in their only legit win.  In fact, the Broncos have been outgained by a total of 440 yards in their last four games, or by an average of 110 yards per game.  With stats like that they should be 0-4 and 1-3 at best. 

But the biggest reason I faded the Broncos last week was because they lost two key players to injury the previous week.  Emmanuel Sanders was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  The loss of Sanders was huge because they already traded away Demaryius Thomas.  Sanders was having a career season with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games.  They just don’t have many playmakers left at receiver for Case Keenum. 

On defense, the loss of Chris Harris is a big one.  He is their top cover corner.  San Francisco 3rd-string quarterback Nick Mullens lit up this Denver defense for 332 passing yards and two touchdowns.  And you can bet that Baker Mayfield, who is in line to win Rookie of the Year honors, will light them up as well.  The Broncos also have a couple other defensive backs that have shown up on the injury report this week. 

Cleveland comes in playing very well, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Unlike Denver, there hasn’t been anything fluky about the Browns’ run.  They have outgained their last four opponents in cumulative total yards, and the offense is hitting its stride by scoring 26 or more points in all three wins behind the guidance of new coordinator Freddie Kitchens.  The only exception was the loss at Houston, but the Browns had a TD called back and also fumbled through the end zone for a touchdown.  They have 428 total yards against that good Houston defense. 

The Browns are looking up at the AFC North standings right now and feeling like they have a legit chance to win the division.  And belief can go a long way in this league.  And they get to play on Saturday, so they won’t get to see the results from Sunday yet.  They’ll be ‘all in’ for this game, unlike Denver.  The Browns trail the Steelers by two games, but the Steelers are underdogs this week and they’ll be underdogs to the Saints next week.  And though they also trail the Ravens by 1.5 games, they still get to play the Ravens in Week 17, which could ultimately decide the division.  And the Browns host the Bengals next week, so they will have a legit shot of getting to 8-7-1, which could be good enough to win this division. 

Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following two consecutive road games.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after trailing their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime.  Plays against home teams (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40% to 49%) are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Browns Saturday.