Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Southern Illinois PK 

Home-court advantage has been huge for both Drake and Southern Illinois this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU in Drake’s five MVC games this season.  The home team is also 5-0 SU in Southern Illinois’ five MVC games this year. 

Southern Illinois beat Illinois State by 12 as 2-point favorites and Valparaiso by 13 as 2.5-point favorites in its two MVC home games this season.  Drake lost to Bradley by 8 as 2.5-point dogs and Valparaiso by 5 as 1.5-point dogs in its two MVC road games this year. 

Southern Illinois is 8-1 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season.  The Salukis are 9-2 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Salukis are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Sunday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +1.5 

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They want revenge from a 100-106 loss at Miami just a few days ago on January 15th.  Now they get their chance at revenge just four days later at home this time around. 

Adding to the Spurs’ motivation is the fact that they are coming off a 120-121 home loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter.  They had been playing some great basketball prior to those two games in going 9-4 ATS in their previous 13 games. 

San Antonio is 32-8 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two season.  The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  San Antonio is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss.  The Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs.  Roll with the Spurs Sunday. 

15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7 

I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens.  It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently.  The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship. 

The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close.  That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans.  They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites.  Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston.  So I think there’s some value here. 

Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week.  They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12.  That is a complete fluke.  Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times.  That’s essentially seven turnovers.  It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL. 

Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either.  The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game.  And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury.  If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout. 

Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern.  But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor.  This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score.  And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score.  Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week. 

The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game.  The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either.  They will be playing their 4th straight road game.  The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS.  And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7 

I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL.  No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied.  They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game.  That’s how close they are to being 17-0. 

The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense.  The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL.  The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game. 

The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively.  Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation.  And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries.  That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards.  They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers. 

After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season.  They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards.  They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards.  No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game. 

Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically.  The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season.  The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game.  They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games.  Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close. 

I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense.  The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run.  They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season.  The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game.  Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks.  Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week. 

The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year.  The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway.  They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!