Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: Kansas City used an eight-run second inning on its way to a 15-5 win at Toronto. The Royals had failed to score more than four runs in eight straight games and entered last night's game on a three-game slide, before busting loose against the Blue Jays. The victory allowed them to close within 3 1/2 games of the American League's second wild card with 11 games left to play The 71-81 Blue Jays (71-81) would need to win their final 10 games to avoid the team's first losing record since 2013, as the two teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series tonight at Rogers Centre.

The pitching matchup: Jason Vargas (16-10 & 4.19 ERA) takes the mound for KC and J.A. Happ (9-10 & 3.76 ERA) for Toronto. Vargas has won his last two starts but he went just five innings in each and hasn't come close to resembling the pitcher who was 12-3 on June 30. Vargas is 4-7 since the beginning of July (team is 6-7) and his ERA has almost doubled, from 2.22 on June 30 to 4.19 heading into tonight's contest. Vargas is 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA against the Blue Jays after beating them with seven innings of two-run ball on June 24 over nine career starts (teams are 5-4). Happ began the season by losing his first four decisions and also spent time on the DL. His 20-4 season of 2016 seems 'miles' away but he's won each of his last three starts to move closer to a sixth season with double-digit victories. In one start this season against the Royals (June 23), he allowed four hits, no walks and one run in 6 2/3 innings and did not factor in the decision as Kansas City won 5-4. In five career starts against the Royals, he is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA (teams are 2-3).

The pick: KC is fighting for a playoff spot while the Blue Jays, after back-to-back ALCS appearances, will be sitting home this October. However, Vargas has struggled for most of the last three months, while Happ, who struggled early in the season with elbow inflammation, has a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts and has won three in a row. Make Toronto a 10* play.

The set-up: The Twins have lost three straight games but the Angels have failed to take advantage of Minnesota's struggles by losing three in a row, themselves. LA, which has lost eight of 12, has seen its American League wild-card hopes grow dimmer, as the Angels get set to host the the Cleveland Indians on Thursday for the finale of this three-game series. The Angels still trail the Twins for the second wild-card spot by 1 1/2 games and now they have just 11 games remaining. As for the Indians, they have now won four in a row and 26 of their last 27. Cleveland goes for the three-game road sweep having last lost a road game back on August 20 (that's 13 straight road wins!).

The pitching matchup: Danny Salazar (5-6, 4.52 ERA) recently returned from an elbow injury and is starting for Cleveland for the first time since Sep. 5, after two relief outings. Taking the mound for LA is rookie Parker Bridwell (8-2 & 3.71 ERA), who is MLB's biggest moneymaker among starters (Angels are 15-2, plus-$1644 in his 17 starts!). Salazar retired only two batters in his last start against the Chicago White Sox (9/5), giving up four runs. Cleveland wants to extend his pitch count to see if he is a possible postseason starter. Salazar is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in four career starts against the Angels (Indians are 2-2). Bridwell scattered three hits over six scoreless innings to defeat Texas 2-0 in his last outing, ending a stretch of five straight win-less outings (note: Angels went 4-1 in that stretch). The rookie had allowed 15 runs on 20 hits in 12 innings (11.25 ERA) over a three-start span before his turnaround against effort against Rangers. Bridwell will be facing the Indians for the first time.

The pick: No doubt that Bridwell has had a remarkable rookie season but in all honesty, he's also been fortunate, with the Angels' run production bailing him out of more than just a few, "less-than-stellar" outings. In going 4-8 over their last 12 games, the Angels have averaged just 3.3 RPG. That won't cut it against the Indians. Make Cleveland an 8* play.

The set-up: The 0-2 San Francisco 49ers will host the 1-1 LA Rams Thursday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday. The Rams routed the Colts 46-9 in Week 1 but then lost 27-20 to Washington in Week 2. The team will play its first road game of the season here, traveling on a short week, although the trip to Santa Clara is not much of a travel issue. As for the 49ers, they are 0-2 after a 23-3 home loss to the Panthers in Week 1 and a 12-9 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 2. The Rams are coming off a 4-12 season and the 49ers off a 2-14 one, so it's fair to say both teams have this one 'circled' as a rare "winning opportunity."

LA Rams: Jared Goff struggled when he played in 2016, after being the NFL's No. 1 overall pick in April. Goff completed just 54.6% in his seven games with five TDs, seven INTs and five lost fumbles (he was 0-5 as a starter). He had a breakout game in Week 1 by completing 21 of 29 for 306 yards with one TD, no INTs and a 117.9 QB rating. However, he was more average against Washington, going 15 of 25 for 224 yards with one TD, one INT and an 86.1 rating. RB Todd Gurley had just 41 yards in Week 1 in the win but looked better with 88 yards (5.5 YPC) in the loss, plus he's caught eight passes for 104 yards. Goff's improved play certainly makes the Ram's a much superior offensive team, averaging 33.0 PPG (LA averaged NFL lows of 14.0 PPG and 262.7 YPG in 2016). The Rams D has allowed 18.0 PPG (11th) on 305.3 YPG (13th) through two games, after allowing 24.6 PPG on 337.0 YPG in 2016.

San Francisco: The 49ers have a new head coach (Kyle Shanahan) and a new starting QB (Brian Hoyer) and so far, the offense has been pathetic. Hoyer has completed 62.9% and thrown for only 292 yards without a a TD pass (two INTs) and currently owns a 60.7 QB rating. RB Carlos Hyde has 169 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC but the team has averaged 6.0 PPG, amazingly ranking 31st of 32 teams (talk about a lack of scoring!). SF does rank dead-last (32nd) in total yards, at 232.5 YPG. Considering the team's woeful offensive performance, the defense has played well. San Francisco ranks 10th in both points allowed (17.5 per) on 299.5 YPG.

The pick: I noted at the top that both teams have to feel like this is a winnable one. However, the 49ers have to realize just how important winning here, is. The 49ers play their next three games on the road, return home to play the Cowboys and then travel cross-country to play the Eagles. Lose here and an 0-8 start looks pretty feasible. San Francisco just dominated the Rams at this venue last year, winning 28-0 and then upset the Rams later in the Coliseum, 22-21. Make San Francisco an 8* play.

The set-up: The 2-1 Temple Owls will visit Tampa and Raymond James Stadium Thursday night on ESPN to take on the 3-0 South Florida Bulls, who are currently ranked No. 21 in the AP poll. The Bulls will have a short week for the second game in a row, having played Illinois last Friday night, when they pulled away to an easy 47-23 victory, with 680 yards of total offense. Temple's new head coach Geoff Collins knows what his team is in for, as on Monday he said, "They have tremendous athletes across the board -- a big, physical offensive line and a dynamic quarterback who can hurt you with his arm and hurt you with his legs. They're a complete offense."

Temple: The Owls are coming off back-to-back 10-4 seasons but reaching double digit wins this year may be a stretch. Temple opened with the 2017 season with a 49-16 loss at Notre Dame, before beating Villanova and UMass (schools better-known for their basketball programs) by only a combined 11 points! QB Logan Marchi has taken over for the graduated Walker and has looked pretty good. He's thrown for 767 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. However, the running game, which averaged just over 175 YPG in 2016, has averaged a woeful 94.3 YPG (117th) on 2.9 YPC after three games (two coming against cupcakes 'Nova and UMass). Forget the team's defensive numbers against Villanova and U Mass and concentrate on the 49 points and 606 yards the Owls allowed at Notre Dame and one has to believe Temple is in deep trouble in this contest.

USF: Quinton Flowers has yet to 'explode' after three games (678 passing yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 243 yards rushing and 2 TDs) but the key is he's got USF's offense clicking on all cylinders. USF averages 40.0 PPG on 522.3 YPG (15th), including 281.3 YPG rushing (13th). RBs Tice (256 yards & 4 TDs) and Johnson (215 yards) give the Bulls quite a solid duo to complement Flowers' rushing ability (note: he rushed for 1,530 yards in 2016 on 7.7 YPC and scored 18 TDs!). The Bulls' D has been more than "good enough," allowing 20.7 PPG (48th) on 323.3 YPG (42nd).

The pick: The Bulls enter this game having scored 30-plus points in 20 straight games and just how will Temple's D (see Notre Dame stats above!) be able to keep USF in check on its home field? Making matters worse for Temple is that the Owls beat USF last season in Philly, 46-30. As the saying goes, "revenge is a dish best served cold." USF is 8-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2015. Make the Bulls a 10* play.