Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: I have zero faith in either starter and I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Chris Stratton, while the home side goes with Steven Matz.

The pitchers: Stratton is so far 8-7 with a 5.52 ERA. He returns from Triple-A out of necessity. For the most part he’s been terrible this season in the big leagues, especially at home with a 6.09 ERA.

Matz is so far 5-10 with a 4.60 ERA. He makes his second start back from injury at home, a place where he’s gone a poor 1-5 with a 4.78 ERA.

The pick: This match-up definitely does not have “pitchers duel” written all over it. It’s the exact opposite in fact. There’s no reason to have any faith in any either of these guys, and I don’t. I expect each to get the hook early and for this one to fly “over” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I think that Patrick Corbin and the home side have the advantage, making this a price that I can live with paying. The visitors go with Felix Pena on the mound.

The pitchers: Pena is so far 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits with four walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Pena has looked solid of late, but I think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue.

Corbin is so far 10-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with no walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over the Rangers on Tuesday. It was his third-straight quality outing and to go along with his solid ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHIP and 11.0 K/9.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine night home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I like Corbin to find a way to get the job done at home, play on Arizona.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Sal Romano, while the home side goes with the steady Junior Guerra.

The pitchers: Romano is so far 7-10 with a 5.31 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off seven hits with two walks over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Indians on Tuesday. Romano has been terrible overall this year, but especially on the road with the 2-5, 5.67 ERA.

Guerra is so far 6-8 with a 3.73 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing as well, giving up seven runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a setback to the Cubs. It was the first time in three starts he failed to record a quality outing. Guerra’s been solid overall, especially at home with a 3-2, 2.59 ERA record.

The pick: I believe Romano’s road struggles continue and that makes Guerra the correct call in this particular match-up. I can live paying this price as I expect a rout. Play on Milwaukee.

The set-up: This match-up has “slug-fest” written all over it. The Orioles go with Dylan Bundy, while the Jays hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio.

The pitchers: Bundy is so far 7-11 with a 4.99 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings. He gave up eight hits, including two home runs. In four of his last six trips to the hill he’s allowed at least five earned runs while posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in that stretch.

Gaviglio is so far 2-6 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the lowly Royals on Tuesday. Over his last eight starts Gaviglio has posted an atrocious 7.07 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

The pick: Bundy’s form suggests he’s in line for another “long night,” while Gaviglio has regressed as the season has worn on. Expect these trends to continue and for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. However, i think we’ll see just enough offense to push this one “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.13 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back shaky outings and while he has thrown better on the road than at home, I think the right-hander is running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch.

Roark is so far 8-12 with a 4.13 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Thursday. Roark has been solid over the last the last month, but I’ll caution that he’s still just 4-6 with a 5.20 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten road night games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I think Velasquez continues to slide and I believe Roark will take a step back. Play the “over.”