Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: The Padres have lost six of their last seven, so clearly they won’t be lacking motivation/focus tonight. Arizona is 25-22 and the Padres are 23-24, but the Friars have already take four of seven in the season series. As good as Luke Weaver has been for Arizona of late, I think that the Padres’ rookie phenom Chris Paddack is the correct call in this case. 

The pitchers: Weaver (3-2, 3.16 ERA). Paddack is 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA. 

The pick: The Padres though are 6-2 in Paddack’s start this year and I look for that trend of success to continue again on Monday. Note as well that Arizona is just 7-10 vs. the division this season, while San Diego is 11-6 (+7 units) after scoring four runs or less in six straight games. Great price, play on the home side. 

San Diego Padres

10* play

The set-up: The Indians benefit from playing at home. They also come in off a 10-0 blowout over the Orioles on Sunday. Slugger Jason Kipnis is riding a 14-game on-base streak heading into this series and ace Carlos Carrasco has started to resemble his normal dominant form, coming into this one having thrown 12 straight scoreless frames of work. I think it’ll be too much for Brett Anderson and the A’s to overcome on Monday night. 

The pitchers: Anderson (4-3, 4.41 ERA) is just 1-3 in over his last five outings, most recently getting shelled for four runs off six hits (including three homers) vs. Seattle on Tuesday. 

Carrasco (4-3, 4.18) gave up two hits over five frames in a 5-0 win over the White on May 9th, before allowing six hits over seven innings in a 9-0 win over Chicago.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 0-6 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 ranges, while Cleveland is 14-8 as a home favorite. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price.

Cleveland Indians

8* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the Blazers. While the teams split four regular season meetings, Portland has had difficulties with Golden State’s “smaller” or “shooting” line-up, with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson being the featured pieces in the offense, instead of Kevin Durant. Perhaps Portland would have done better with Durant in the lineup? We’ll never know, but for whatever reason this particular line-up has given the Blazers difficulties in the postseason and I don’t think anything changing for Game 4. Portland had it’s best opportunity to get back into this series in Game 3, but once again it came up short in trying to defend Curry and company. I’ve also been thoroughly impressed with the Warriors’ defense to this point. Portland’s on the ropes and I look for the defending champs to put the final nail in the coffin.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five when leading 3-0 in a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-7 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. I like Golden State on the MONEY-LINE in Game 4.

GSW

10* play