Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: After winning two in a row, the Braves enter having lost three straight. I say that slide continues here. Most recently they lost 8-4 to the Jays yesterday. The Brewers have been alteranting wins/losses over their last four games and I believe that pattern continues after yesterday's 2-0 home loss to the Cardinals. This is a pitching matchup which definitely favors the home side. 

The pick: Drew Smyly is 1-2 with a 6.12 ERA. He comes in off a decent start vs. the Nationals, allowing one run over six innings. The Nats are a poor hitting team though and note that he still owns a terrible 11/10 K/W over his last three outings. Adiran Houser (3-3, 3.44 ERA) has a much better 31/11 K/W over 36.2 innings of work. He comes in off a win over the Marlins and I like him to dominate here at home in this favorable spot. Lay the price.

This is an 8* NL BLOOD-BATH on the Brewers.

The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here. 

The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in yesterday's series opener here, and while that game up short, the Giants did go on to win and I look for them to carry that momentum over here with their "ace" on the mound. Gausman (3-0, 1.97 ERA), has an elite 47/12 K/BB over 45.2 innings for the Giants. So far he's given up over one earned run just once this season. 

The pick: Tyler Anderson (3-3, 3.05) gets the nod for the home side. He's coming off a solid win over the Cubs on Sunday, giving up two runs over eight innings. As good as Anderson has been of late, I still give the nod to Gausman in this starting pitching matchup. The Pirates only average 3.41 RPG, while the Giants average 4.35. This is the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Giants.