Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: Detroit has lost two in a row. The Pistons finally got Blake Griffin back, but they still lost 120-114 to the visiting Wolves last night. Clearly the Pistons are going to get better now that Griffin is back in the line-up, but it's not going to be an instantaneous transformation and playing here on the second game of the back to back isn't going to help either. The Heat enter off a road loss to the Lakers, after laying a beatdown on the Suns in Phoenix. 

The pick: The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league right now, allowing just 105.4 PPG. The Pistons are allowing 113.3 and I expect that number to go up here in this difficult road venue. Additionally note that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a SU loss, while the Pistons are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. I'm banking on a double-digit rocking-chair victory. Lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Miami Heat. 

The set-up: The Nashville Predators are 9-8 and the Canucks are 9-9. Both teams are struggling. The Predators have lost four of their last five and they're desperate to get off the schneid. Fortunately they now face a Canucks team which has lost four in a row. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Predators are 4-1 (+2.7 units) already this year when playing with two days rest. They're also 19-12 (+3.1 units) in their last 31 after scoring one or less goals in their last contest, while the Canucks are only 33-55 (-5.7 units) in their last 88 vs. clubs with winning records, including only 2-3 this season. I think Vancouver's slide continues and I look for the desperate but rested Predators to take advantage.

10* COAST-TO-COAST SUPER ROAST on the Nashville Predators.

The set-up: LBSU almost upset UCLA in its opener and then it rolled to a double digit win over San Diego in its second game. Overall the 49ers have not given up more than 69 points this year and they've averaged 74 thus far. LBSU plays with revenge here as well after falling 93-86 in this game last season. 

The pick: Stanford's rosey 2-0 start has to be taken with a grain of salt as well, as its victories have come over Montanta and Cal State Fullerton. There's no doubt that the Cardinal are tough at home and I'm not suggesting at all that you should expect an outright upset. That said, note that LBSU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight on the road. The 49ers play with revenge and I expect this "under the radar" team to give Stanford everything it can handle. Grab the points.

9* COACH'S CORNER on LBSU.

The set-up: Troy is 0-1 and it's looking to take out its frustrations here in the second game of a short two-game home stand. The Trojans enter off a 76-75 loss to UAB, a game in which they trailed by 12 points late. KJ Simon set a new career-high, leading all scorers with 21 points on 9-12 shooting. 

The pick: The Chattanooga Mocs are 1-1, losing 79-68 at EKU, before then holding on for a 59-57 win over Tennessee State at home in their second. Transfer Matt Ryan led the way scoring 11 points on 4-14 shooting. Troy is the deeper and more experienced team and I think it lays everything on the line here to secure the victory in front of what should be a record-setting crowd to watch. Additionally note that the Mocs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest, while the Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm on the home side in this one.

10* DESTRUCTION on Troy.

The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos are 6-4 on the year after winning two straight. They're now bowl eligible after holding on for a 35-31 win at Ball State last weekend. Ohio though is just 4-5 on the year (3-2 in Conference action) and it'll be risking life and limb here to try and secure a victory with time now running out to do so. Last year the Bobcats broke a four game slide in this series with a convincing 59-14 win over the Broncos. Overall WMU averages 36 PPG and it allows 26.

The pick: Ohio averages 29 PPG and it allows 29 PPG. The Bobcats lost to division leader Miami Ohio last time out, but I think they'll take care of business here at home vs. this now contented WMU side. Note as well that WMU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning record. I'm banking on the desperate home side to step up here and deliver the goods.

10* DESTRUCTION on Ohio.

The set-up: After winning the opener of this tournament, Hawaii was upset at home last night 81-75 by South Dakota. Pacific lost to South Dakota in its opening game of this tournament by a score of 72-62, but it then bounced back in fine fashion with a 76-54 win over FAMU. These teams haven't met since 2013, but I think they're very evenly matched after what I've seen in the early going. 

The pick: Additionally note that Pacific is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 vs. teams with winning records, while Hawaii is only 5-12 ATS in its last 17 non-conference contests. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific.