Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

The start time for this game has been moved up a few hours to hopefully avoid the wet weather entering the area in the evening. We'll call for plenty of runs on the board before that. Chicago actually ranks top-five in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. While current White Sox hitters haven't lit it up against Orioles starter Zach Eflin, they might be catching him at the right time. Eflin owns a FIP north of six this season and has been torched for 12 earned runs on 15 hits over his last two starts spanning just 10 1/3 innings of work. The O's bullpen ranks in the bottom half of baseball in terms of xFIP this season (on that note the White Sox are last in the majors in that category). Jared Shuster will counter for Chicago. Current O's hitters haven't seen much of him but that they have seen, they've liked, going 5-for-13 (.385) with a .928 OPS against him. With the forecast calling for mild (temperature approaching 80 degrees), humid conditions and a light breeze blowing out to left, we'll call for a high-scoring affair at Camden Yards. Take the over (8*).

A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

Seth Lugo's return to the Royals starting rotation comes at a good time as the team has been struggling in his absence. Lugo finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last year and even received MVP votes in an All-Star campaign. He'll draw a favorable matchup here, even if Detroit has been winning, as the Tigers rank 24th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days (just one spot ahead of the Royals). Also note that Lugo has held current Tigers hitters to 22-for-104 (.212) with a .662 OPS. Casey Mize will counter for Detroit. He has admittedly pitched well, going 6-1 with a 3.90 FIP and 1.01 WHIP in eight starts this season. With that said, he has allowed six earned runs in 18 innings over his last three outings. Current Royals hitters should be happy to see Mize as they've gone a collective 31-for-87 (.356) with a .978 OPS against him. Finally, we'll note that the Royals bullpen has actually outperformed that of the Tigers, at least by some key metrics. Kansas City sits one spot ahead (in 12th in the majors) in bullpen xFIP this season. Both bullpens should have 'all hands on deck' following an off day on Thursday. Take Kansas City (10*).

National League Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Giants appeared poised to avoid the series sweep in Detroit two days ago, nursing a late lead and in seemingly good hands with what has been a lights out bullpen taking over. Things didn't go as planned, however, as Detroit rallied for a 4-3 victory to take a third straight win over San Francisco. Here, we'll call for the Giants to bounce back following Thursday's off day. San Francisco will give left-hander Kyle Harrison his second start of the season. He was a key contributor for the Giants last season, going 7-7 across 24 starts. His first start this year (after a stint in the bullpen) came against the Nationals in Washington last weekend. He went four innings, allowing two earned runs but the underlying metrics were strong and he threw 43-of-57 pitches for strikes. Of note, in five appearances this season he has averaged 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings which would be a career high. Behind Harrison is a Giants bullpen that ranks fourth in the majors in xFIP this season. Miami will start this series with Cal Quantrill on the mound. You would have to go back to 2022 to find the last time he had a productive season (he went 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA that year). After logging a 5.32 FIP and 1.52 WHIP across 29 starts with the Rockies last year, he's posted a 4.52 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in 10 outings this season. I can't help but feel there's a reason he's with his third different team in as many years at this stage of his career. Meanwhile, the Marlins bullpen ranks 27th in the majors in xFIP this season. Look for the Giants to rebound. Take San Francisco (10*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on San Diego over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Padres were unable to complete the series sweep against the Marlins on Wednesday but that loss only served to snap their four-game winning streak. We'll call for them to get back on track as they open a series against the Pirates on Friday. Nick Pivetta will be tasked with the 'stopper' role for San Diego. He's been terrific so far this season, logging a 3.24 FIP and 1.01 WHIP in 10 starts. Keep in mind, his recent success has been no fluke. Pivetta actually pitched well in each of the last two seasons with a poor Red Sox club. In 2023 the right-hander recorded a 3.96 FIP and 1.12 WHIP and last year he posted a 4.07 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. Current Pirates hitters are just 9-for-57 (.158) with a .536 OPS against him. Mitch Keller will counter for Pittsburgh. He probably would have liked to get a shot at a Diamondbacks team that he's dominated but he just missed a rotation spot in that series. Here, he'll face a Padres lineup that has gone 24-for-88 (.273) with a .799 OPS against him. Luis Arraez and Manny Machado have combined to go 9-for-26 with two doubles and a home run off the veteran right-hander. Finally, we'll note that the Padres bullpen ranks top-10 in the majors in xFIP this season while the Pirates relief corps checks in 22nd in that category. Look for San Diego to secure a win in the series-opener. Take San Diego.