John Ryan Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Dallas vs New England

4:25 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

Betting the OVER with any team that is coming off a win, but failed to cover the spread and now facing an opponent coming off a home SU win has earned a highly profitable 45-11-1 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the team in question, which is New England, is the home team, then the OVER gets even better with a 30-7 record for 82% winning bets.

Dallas head coach McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in a road game and facing an excellent passing team that completes an average of 64% of their attempts.

With a total of 50 points and Dallas favored by three points implies a 26.5 to 23.5. My predictive models confirm a very high probability that both teams will score at least 21 or more points. Dallas is a perfect 12-0 OVER in games in which they and the opponent each scored 21 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.

Arizona vs Cleveland

Week 6

4:05 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points

The sentiment readings are among the widest of ant NFL game over the last five seasons and reflects the betting community’s love affair with the Browns in this matchup. This is a contrarian reading and measure as I had mentioned with Teddy Covers on the Sirius XM Sportsgrid show yesterday. My Twitter application confirms and underscores the wildly bullish exuberance on the Browns and even the Circa Millions has an incredible 1695 entries picking the Browns as one of their 5 picks this week. So, 41% of the total entries in the contest are on the Browns and this rarely works out for the majority when the percentage is even above 25% of the total entries.

Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play and have gained 400 or more yards in at least three straight games has earned a 46-13 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past three seasons the angle has earned an amazing 27-7 ATS record.

From the predictive models, we learn that NFL teams that gain a minimum of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and score ay least 27 points are 468-143-28 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2016. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road and scoring 27 or more points and gaining 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last 5 seasons.

Kansas City vs Washington

1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points

Betting against any team that is coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by three or more and in a matchup of teams, whose defenses force 1.25 or fewer opponent turnovers per game has earned a 31-10 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The Chiefs committed 4 turnovers in their humiliating home loss to the Buffalo Bills and their defense has not forced an opponent turnover in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have many problems on both sides of the ball and injuries are making those problems very difficult, if not impossible to solve. Both Washington and KC have gotten just four turnovers from their opponents this season.

Head coach Reid is just 11-23 ATS after failing to cover the number in two of their last three games.

Bet the Washington Football Team as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Green Bay vs Chicago

1:00 PM EST, Week 6, October 17, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points

Consider adding no more than a 0.75 unit amount betting the Bears using the money line.

The Bears passing attack has been anemic gaining a league-low 729 yards, but let’s hold a minute before simply assuming the netter pedigree Packers are the automatic winner. Teams that have gained fewer than 750 passing yards over a five-game span and are now installed as a dog have earned a 167-131-9 ATS record over the last five seasons. If our dog is installed as no more than a 7.5 point underdog then the record has been 88-58-4 ATS over the last three seasons. Moreover, if filter dogs in a divisional matchup are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons.

The Bears showed they can still gain on the ground even with Montgomery sidelined, running for 143 yards against Las Vegas. Rookie Khalil Herbert rushed for 75 on 18 carries, while Williams had 64 yards. So, if Montgomery and/or Damien Williams (Covid-19 list Thursday) will be a major addition. I still like this bet quite a bit with just Herbert as the lead running back. Moreover, the Packers will without three 2020 Pro Bowl players in left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. I do believe Chicago was significant matchup advantages going up against their replacements.

The Bears are 25-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points over the last 30 seasons. Packers are a money-burning 3-13 ATS in road games and riding the crest of a four or more-game win streak. The Bears are the bet.

Houston vs Indianapolis

Week 6 1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

I will not waste a second of time with this one. This betting angle has earned a 57-23 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet the OVER with any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games and in a matchup of teams winning no more than 25% of their games on the season. Tis angle has produced a 4-1 OVER record this season and 24-9 OVER 83% winning record spanning the past five seasons.

From the predictive models, we learn that the Colts are expected to score 27 or more points, gain at least 6 yards per play, and gain over 400 total yards. In past games when the Colts have scored 27 or more points the OVER has earned a 10-5 record for 67% winners spanning the last three seasons, 17-7 OVER the past 5 seasons, and 44-15-1 OVER spanning the past 10 seasons. IN past games in which the Colts gained at least 6 YPPL and gained over 400 total yards, the OVER has earned a 24-11 OVER record over the past 10 seasons. When the Colts have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an 8-1 OVER record over the past five seasons.

Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet