John Ryan Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Nebraska vs 18 Wisconsin 
8-Unit Bet on Nebraska priced as 7.5-pointunderdogs. 

The following NCAA basketball betting algorithm has produced a 16-30 SU (35%) and 32-13-1 ATS mark for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on road underdogs priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-point underdog. 

The host is coming off a loss to a conference foe by three or fewer points and were the favorites. 

The road team is coming off a loss to a conference foe priced as the favorite. 

Panthers vs Knights 
8-Unit bet on the Knights priced as –125-favorites. 

Supporting this bet on the Knights is the following algorithm that has gone 30-11 for 73% winning bets and has averaged a –140-favorite wager and earned a highly profitable 37% ROI since 2006. The requirements are:  

Bet on road teams playing on back-to-back nights. 

They are coming off a road win in which they scored 5 or more goals. 

The opponent has won 60% or more of their games. 

If the total is 5.5 or fewer goals, these teams have gone 13-3 for 82% winners averaging a –145-wager resulting in a 49% ROI since 2006. 

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles 
Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025 
10-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as 6-point favorites and good up to 7 points. 
5-Unit Bet OVER the total or OVER the Eagles team total. (Optional bets) 

Time: 3:00 p.m. ET 

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 

Broadcast: FOX, Fubo 

Live Betting Strategy: I am betting and recommending betting 75% preflop on the Eagles priced at 6 points. The Eagles have started slowly in the first quarter of the majority of their games. If Washington scores a TD or FG first, add 15% ore, and if they score the first TD of the game add the rest of the 10%. These plays are only valid during the first half of action. 

Key Matchups to Watch: 

Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles' Defense: 

The young quarterback has shown remarkable poise under pressure. His ability to extend plays with his feet and make accurate throws on the run will test the Eagles' defense7. 

Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders' Run Defense: 

Barkley has been the key to the Eagles' offensive success this season. Stopping him won't be easy, so the Commanders' defense will need to gang up on him and limit his big-play potential1. 

Commanders' Passing Attack vs. Eagles' Secondary: 

With weapons like Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Zach Ertz, Daniels has plenty of targets. The Eagles' secondary will have to manage these threats and make key stops8. 

Turnover Battle: 

As always in high-stakes games, turnovers can be the difference-maker. Both defenses will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes from the opposing team. 

Eagles' Defense Strategy Against Jayden Daniels: 

To minimize Daniels' impact, the Eagles' defense will focus on containing his mobility and applying consistent pressure in the pocket. Their job will be to contain any whole that he can scoot through and make certain he cannot get to the perimeter. Sacks are not nearly as important as is containment. Linebackers and safeties will be tasked with keeping him from making big plays with his legs, while the defensive linemen will aim to collapse the pocket and force rushed decisions. 

Commanders' Defense Strategy Against Eagles' Ground Attack: 

The Commanders' defense will have a tall order in containing Saquon Barkley even if they sell out as they did in the previous meeting. They plan to gang up on Barkley with multiple defenders, aiming to limit his yards after contact and prevent him from breaking off the long runs that have destroyed previous defenses. The strategy will also involve forcing the Eagles to rely on their passing game by containing Barkley early in the downs. This is a major part of the game if Jalen Hurts is not as mobile as he normally is given the extent of his right knee injury. That leg is also where a QB gets his power from to throw vertical routes. From the latest reports, Hurts is expected to be 90% or better by kick off.  

Betting Algorithms Specific to the Conference Championships 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 41-16 SU (72%) and 38-19 ATS (67%) since 1989. The requirements are: 

Bet on home teams. 

The road team is playing their third consecutive road game. 

The road team won their last game priced as the dog. 

If the game is a divisional matchup of teams, the home team has gone 13-4 SU (76%) and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets. In the playoffs, these home teams have gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with the only loss taking place in the 2010 Conference Championship game in which the Packers defeated the Bears 21-14 priced as 7-point dogs. 

Supporting a solid bet on the OVER is the following algorithm that has gone 36-38 SU, 32-41-1 ATS (44%), and 46-27-1 Over for 63% winning bets. The requirements are: 

Bet the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points. 

A team recorded 27 or more first downs in their previous game. 

That same team allowed 27 or more first downs. 

From the Predictive Model: My predictive model is expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games in which they achieved these measures has seen them post a 21-1 SU record (96%) and a 16-5-1 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets since 2021.  

AFC Championship Game Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs 
8-Unit bet on the Bills priced as 1.5-point dogs.

Game Overview: The stage is set for an epic showdown in the AFC Championship game where the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. This matchup is the latest chapter in what has become one of the NFL's most thrilling rivalries, pitting two of the league's best quarterbacks, Josh Allen of the Bills against Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, in a battle for a Super Bowl berth. 

Game Details: 

Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025 

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET 

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO 

TV: CBS 

Streaming: Paramount+ 

Current Betting Odds: 

Spread: Chiefs -2 

Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points 

Moneyline: Chiefs -135, Bills +110 

Key Matchups: 

Josh Allen vs. Chiefs' Defense: 

Quarterback vs. Defense: Josh Allen has been dynamic for the Bills, not just with his arm but also with his legs. His performance against the Chiefs will be crucial, particularly how he navigates the Chiefs' disciplined defense, which has been one of the stingiest in the league against the pass. They maintain gap discipline better than any defense I have seen this season. The Bills will need to protect Allen, who has had his share of turnovers, from the Chiefs' pass rush led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. 

Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills' Secondary: 

Quarterback vs. Secondary: Mahomes has an impressive playoff record, especially against the Bills. However, the Bills' secondary, despite dealing with injuries, has players like Rasul Douglas who can make significant impacts. The health status of Bills' cornerbacks like Taron Johnson and Christian Benford will be key. Mahomes will look to exploit any weaknesses, particularly through tight end Travis Kelce who has been a pivotal part of the Chiefs' late-season surge. 

Run Game Control: 

Rushing Attack vs. Run Defense: Both teams have shown they can win games by controlling the clock and the line of scrimmage. For the Bills, James Cook has been effective, especially in the red zone, and Josh Allen's mobility adds another dimension. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have relied on a committee approach with Isiah Pacheco getting significant carries. The team that can manage the game's pace through a successful run game might dictate the outcome. The Chiefs have been solid against the run, but the Bills have the potential to test this with their dual-threat capabilities. 

Turnover Battle: 

Bills' Turnover Creation vs. Chiefs' Ball Security: The Bills have forced a high number of turnovers this season, which could be a deciding factor. How well the Chiefs protect the ball, especially with Mahomes known for his clutch performances, will be critical. The Bills need to capitalize on any mistakes by the Chiefs to keep Mahomes and the offense off the field. 

Special Teams: 

While often overlooked, special teams can play a pivotal role in playoff games. The effectiveness of kickers Harrison Butker for the Chiefs and Tyler Bass for the Bills could be crucial in a close game. Punt coverage and return games might also sway momentum. 

From my Predictive Model:This game has all the makings of a classic, with both teams showcasing their strengths in offense and defense. The Bills have been on a hot streak, showing resilience and clutch performance, particularly from Josh Allen. However, the Chiefs, with home-field advantage and Mahomes' playoff experience and motivated to be the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls does offset a portion of the Bills edges. Expect a game where defensive stands and strategic play-calling could be as important as big plays from the quarterbacks.  

My predictive model is expecting the Bills to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers, the edge in time of possession, and more third down conversions. So, the Bills are 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS (75%), and 11-1 Over since 2020 when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. They are 38-6 SU, 33-11 ATS (75%), and 26-17-1 Over-Under (61%) when scoring 24 or more points and having the edge in time-of-possession. They are 38-5 SU (88%), 30-13 ATS (70%), and 26-16-1 Over (62%) when scoring 24 or more points and converting more third down conversions.  

Betting Algorithms Specific to the Conference Championships 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 4-12 SUATS since 2004 and works against the Chiefs. The requirements are: 

The game is the Conference Championship. 

The team we are facing is coming off a home win.  

That same team has won five or more games in which they lost in the stats, but won the game during the current season. 

If that team (Chiefs) has won 6 or more games while losing in the stats, their record is a horrid 1-5 SUATS since 2004.