John Ryan Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Knicks vs Pacers 
10-Unit bet on the Pacers priced as 4-point favorites.

Live Betting Strategy: This series has seen an above average amount of scoring volatility, and this game will be no different. Consider betting 7-Units preflop and then look to add 2-units on the Pacers at pick-em and the last unit on the Pacers at +2.5 points during the first half of action. Also, you can fill these units after any scoring run of 120 or more points by the Knicks.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced an 18-11 SU and ATS record good for 62% winning bets. The criteria needed for an active betting opportunity are:

The game is in the conference finals.

Bet on the team that has the better ATS win percentage in the playoffs.

They have the worse seed.

They are at home and priced between a 3.5-point favorite to 3.5-point dog.

Even if the lines range from a 4.5-point favorite to a 4.5-point dog, the record has been a solid 23-13 ATS for 64% winners.

Other situational angles supporting the Pacers:

Home teams coming off a game 5 road loss and looking to close out the series have gone 28-10 SU for 74% winning bets and 22-15-1 ATS for 60% winning bets since 2003. If our home team lost game 5 by double-digits, they have returned to an outstanding 16-7-1 ATS record for 70% winning bets.

Detailed Analysis of Game 6 Between Knicks and Pacers

The 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals have reached a critical juncture with Game 6 scheduled for May 31, 2025, at 8 PM ET, pitting the Indiana Pacers against the New York Knicks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Pacers lead the series 3-2, favored by 3.5 points according to recent odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, and aim to close out the series to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000. The Knicks, on the other hand, are fighting to force a Game 7 back in Madison Square Garden, a scenario that has historical precedent but is statistically rare. This analysis delves into key matchups for the Pacers to win and cover the spread, historical data on overcoming 3-1 deficits, and strong player prop opportunities, drawing from player statistics, series trends, and historical NBA playoff data.

Series Context and Current Standing

The series began with the Knicks hosting Games 1 and 2, given their status as the higher seed, with the Pacers winning both 138-135 in overtime and 114-109, respectively. The series then shifted to Indianapolis for Games 3 and 4, where the Knicks won Game 3 106-100, but the Pacers responded with a 130-121 victory in Game 4, taking a 3-1 lead. Game 5, back in New York, saw the Knicks prevail 111-94, forcing Game 6. The Pacers’ home record in the playoffs stands at 5-2, providing a significant advantage as they host tonight’s game.

Key Matchups for Pacers to Win and Cover the 3.5-Point Spread

To secure a victory and cover the 3.5-point spread, the Pacers must leverage their home court and focus on strategic matchups. The spread implies they need to win by at least 4 points, a margin they achieved in Game 4 with a 9-point win. Key matchups include:

Tyrese Haliburton vs. Jalen Brunson: Haliburton, the Pacers’ point guard, has averaged 21.0 points, 10.0 assists, and 6.0 rebounds in the series, with a standout triple-double in Game 4 (32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds). However, his Game 5 performance was lackluster, with only 8 points and 6 assists, suggesting a bounce-back game at home is likely. Brunson, the Knicks’ engine, has been exceptional, averaging 33.0 points, 5.4 assists, and 2.6 rebounds, including 32 points in Game 5. The Pacers must disrupt Brunson’s scoring, potentially doubling him off the ball, while Haliburton needs to control the tempo and distribute effectively.

Pascal Siakam vs. Karl-Anthony Towns: Siakam has been a consistent scorer, averaging 23.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, with a high of 39 points in Game 2 and 30 in Game 4. Towns, for the Knicks, has been a double-double machine, averaging 25.4 points and 11.8 rebounds, with 24 points and 13 rebounds in Game 5. The Pacers need Siakam to exploit his mid-range game and agility against Towns, while their interior defense, led by Myles Turner, must limit Towns’ rebounding and interior scoring..

Bench Production and Three-Point Shooting: The Pacers’ bench has been a strength, with Bennedict Mathurin scoring 20 points in Game 4. The Knicks’ bench, while solid, will face a hostile environment, and the Pacers’ depth could be decisive. Both teams rely on three-point shooting, with the Pacers shooting over 40% from deep in Game 4. To cover, the Pacers must maintain their offensive efficiency, especially from beyond the arc, to create space for driving lanes.

Historical Context: Overcoming 3-1 Deficits

Research indicates that only 13 NBA teams have successfully come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series in NBA history, a feat last accomplished by the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers against the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. These comebacks all involved winning Game 5 to make it 3-2, followed by victories in Games 6 and 7. Notable examples include the 1968 Boston Celtics, the 1995 Houston Rockets, and the 2003 Detroit Pistons. The Knicks, by winning Game 5, join this exclusive list of teams with a chance to force a Game 7, but history suggests the odds are long, with only 13 successes out of numerous 3-1 deficits in NBA playoff history.

To provide further context, teams down 3-2 in a series have historically won the series about 30% of the time but given the specific scenario of overcoming a 3-1 deficit, the Knicks’ task is particularly daunting. The Pacers, leading 3-2 at home, have a statistical edge, as teams with a 3-2 lead win the series approximately 70% of the time, per historical data.

Player Prop Opportunities

Player props offer betting opportunities based on individual performances, and given the stakes of Game 6, several stand out based on recent trends:

Tyrese Haliburton Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made: Haliburton has made at least two three-pointers in four of the five games this series, with a low of 0/2 in Game 5, where he took only two attempts. At home, with the Pacers needing a win, he’s likely to be more aggressive, and his series average of 2.8 three-point attempts per game suggests he can exceed 2.5 made, especially given his 41.7% shooting from deep in Game 4 (5/12).

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 10.5 Rebounds: Towns has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in four of the five games, with a series average of 11.8. His ability to control the glass, particularly in a must-win game for the Knicks, makes this a strong prop, especially against the Pacers’ interior defense, which may focus on stopping Brunson.

Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 Points: Siakam has scored 30 or more points in two games this series (39 in Game 2, 30 in Game 4) and averaged 23.6 points overall. At home, with the Pacers needing offensive firepower, Siakam is likely to see increased usage, and his efficiency (52.4% FG in Game 4) supports going over 22.5 points.

Sky vs Wings 
7-Unit bet on the Wings using the money line.

The following WNBA betting algorithm has produced a 56-32-1 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:

Bet on teams coming off a loss by six or fewer points.

The opponent is coming off a game in which they allowed 90 or more points.

A’s vs Blue Jays 
7-unit bet on the Blue Jays using the –1.5 run line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 80-26 record (75%) averaging a –190 wager which has earned a 26% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $31,980 profit over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:

Bet on a home favorite that has scored 25 or more runs over their past three games.

The home favorite is priced at –155 or greater.

The game is a non-divisional matchup.

The total is priced between 7 and 9 runs.

The game is not the first game of a series.

Using the –1.5 run line has produced a 64-42 record for 60.2% winners that have averaged a 105-underdog bet resulting in a 21% ROI and a $32,220 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $1,610 profit for the $50 per game bettor.

Red Sox vs Braves 
7-unit bet on the Red Sox priced as a 150 underdog.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 52-58 (47%) record averaging a 154-underdog bet resulting in a terrific 16% ROI and making a $24,080 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2019. The requirements are:

Bet on road dogs priced between a 125 and 175 underdog.

The starter for our dog has an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 in the current season.

Our dog is from the AL

The favorite has a starter that averages five or more Ks per game in the current season.

Yankees vs Dodgers  
7-Unit bet on the Dodgers priced as a –110 favorite or underdog.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 47-32 record good for 60% winners that have averaged a –105 wager resulting in a 20% ROI and a $17,840 profit for the Dime Bettor and an $892 profit for the $50 per game bettor. The requirements are:

Bet on a home team priced between a 125 favorite and dog.

They are facing an AL opponent that is scoring 3.9 or fewer RPG.

The home team is outscoring their foes by 1.0 or more RPG.

Twins vs Mariners 
7-Unit bet on the Twins priced as a –110 favorite.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 67-43 record for 61% winning bets that have averaged a –102 wager resulting in a 17% ROI and a $26,470 profit for the Dime bettor and a $1,325 profit for the casual fan betting $50 per game. The requirements are:

Bet on any team facing an opponent that lost their previous game by 3 or more

runs.

In that loss, their starter posted a bad start (not a 6 inning or more start allowing 3 or fewer earned runs or quality start).

Brewers vs Phillies 
7-Unit Bet on the Phillies priced as a –180 favorite.

The Phillies are 23-13 in home games for 64% winning bets resulting in a highly profitable 23% ROI when coming off back-to-back games in which they scored three or fewer runs in each game since 2022.

The following MLB betting system has produced a 36-4 record for 90% winning bets averaging a –182 wager since 1997. The requirements are:

Bet on home favorites priced between –175 and –250.

They are batting between 0.255 and 0.270.

Both teams are from the NL.

They have a starter with a 3.00 or lower ERA.

They are facing a starter with an ERA of 3.00 or lower.

If these teams are coming off a home loss, they have gone a near-perfect 16-1 averaging a –202 wager resulting in a 57% ROI.