Jimmy Boyd Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

5* NO BRAINER on Stephen F Austin +7½

Tulsa is laying too many points against a Stephen F Austin team that thrives on making games ugly. The Lumberjacks rank in the top 20 nationally in forced turnover percentage.

They fly around the court and trap for forty minutes. Tulsa has struggled with ball security and composure all season long.

The Golden Hurricane give it away on nearly 20 percent of their possessions. If you can’t handle the pressure, SFA will keep this game within a possession or two.

This isn't just a talent gap play; it's a stylistic nightmare for the home team. Tulsa is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.

They do not have the offensive efficiency to pull away and hide. SFA is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss.

They bounce back quickly and play with a major chip on their shoulder. The Lumberjacks are also elite at the free-throw line down the stretch.

They hit over 76 percent as a team, which is critical for a road underdog looking to cover. Tulsa’s perimeter defense is often caught sleeping on rotations.

SFA moves the ball well and finds the open man when teams over-rotate to stop the drive. Expect a high-possession game where the Lumberjacks' depth wears down the Tulsa starters.

The Golden Hurricane lack the bench depth to keep up with the constant substitutions SFA uses to stay fresh. This line should be closer to four or five points based on recent efficiency metrics.

Seven and a half is a gift for a scrappy team that has covered four of their last five on the road. Tulsa hasn't shown the killer instinct to cover large numbers against defensive-minded opponents.

Bet Stephen F Austin +7.5.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Pirates -110

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The Pirates are catching the Astros at the perfect time in this early-season matchup.
Pittsburgh's young rotation has been the story of the spring and they bring a high-velocity arm to the mound today.

While the betting public still loves the Astros' name value, Houston's underlying metrics tell a different story.
The Astros' bullpen used four key relief arms in their high-leverage battle two nights ago and looks gassed.

Fatigue is already setting in for a relief corps that has struggled with high FIP numbers early on.
The Pirates are hitting .274 against right-handed pitching through the first two weeks of the schedule.

They are finding gaps and keeping the line moving against veteran starters who are struggling for velocity.
The Houston starter is leaning too heavily on a fastball that has lost two ticks since last season.

His xFIP suggests he’s been extremely lucky to avoid giving up more earned runs in his first few starts.
PNC Park plays well for the Pirates' lefty-heavy lineup in these specific afternoon conditions.

The wind is blowing out to right field which favors the power alleys for this Pittsburgh squad.
Houston is also dealing with a cross-country flight and a quick turnaround for this afternoon start.

The travel schedule has been brutal for the visitors over the last week of play.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 in their last 11 games at home when the line is near a pick'em price.

The value is clearly on the home side with the better-rested bullpen and the hotter bats.
I expect the Pirates to jump out to an early lead against a struggling starter who is missing his spots.

Take the home team behind their young arms to get the job done at a short price.
The Astros are simply too banged up in the middle of their order to keep pace with this scoring.

I like the Pirates ML (-110)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Red Sox -160

Boston is the clear play in this St. Patrick’s Day matchup against a traveling Braves squad.

The Red Sox are rolling with a significant edge on the mound today.

Their starter has a 3.10 xFIP through his first few appearances and is missing bats at an elite rate.

Meanwhile, the Braves are trotting out a back-end rotation arm who is lucky to have an ERA under 5.00.

His underlying metrics show he is giving up too much hard contact to a lineup this dangerous.

The Red Sox offense is currently top-three in the league in OPS against right-handed pitching.

They are consistently putting runners in scoring position and punishing mistakes over the heart of the plate.

Atlanta’s bullpen is also in a rough spot after being used heavily over the last 48 hours.

They lack the depth to keep up if this game turns into a battle of the relief arms late.

Boston’s relief core is rested and ranks much higher in strikeout-to-walk ratio this month.

The Red Sox have dominated this head-to-head series lately, winning five of the last six meetings.

They also carry a strong 12-4 record in their last 16 games as a home favorite.

Atlanta has struggled to find their rhythm on the road, especially when facing high-strikeout pitchers.

Expect Boston to jump out to an early lead and let their bullpen coast to the finish line.

I like the Red Sox ML (-160).

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Mets -125

The Mets have a massive advantage in the middle of the order today. New York is coming off a strong road stretch where their bats have stayed hot.

The Marlins are struggling to find any consistent production from the top of their lineup. Miami ranks near the bottom of the league in weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching.

New York’s starter is showing elite stuff early in the season. His FIP is nearly a full run lower than his surface ERA, which tells us he is pitching much better than the box scores suggest.

He is missing bats at a high rate and keeping the ball on the ground. That is a nightmare for a Miami offense that currently leads the league in strikeout percentage.

The Marlins’ starter lacks that same level of command. He is leaving too many pitches in the heart of the plate and getting punished by veteran hitters who don't miss mistakes.

New York’s bullpen is also much fresher for this divisional matchup. Miami had to use their top high-leverage arms heavily over the last two days.

If this game is close late, the Mets have the superior arms to shut the door. The Marlins simply don't have the depth in the pen to match New York over nine innings.

The Mets have controlled this head-to-head series recently. They have won six of their last eight trips to this ballpark and always seem to play well in Miami.

Betting against a bottom-tier offense with a tired relief core is a sharp move. This price is too low given the clear talent gap between these two rosters.

I like the Mets ML (-125)

1* Free Pick on NC State -105

NC State is the wrong underdog in this matchup. They are playing their most efficient basketball of the season at exactly the right time.

Texas has looked sluggish over the last two weeks. Their offensive flow has disappeared and they are settling for far too many contested jumpers.

The Longhorns currently rank outside the top 100 in turnover percentage. NC State’s aggressive perimeter defense is built to exploit that specific weakness.

The Wolfpack are forcing nearly 14 turnovers per game lately. Those extra possessions are going to be the difference-makers in a game with such a thin margin.

NC State also holds a massive advantage at the free-throw line. They shoot over 76% as a team and are excellent at drawing contact in the paint.

Texas is relying too much on individual playmaking rather than ball movement. Their assist-to-turnover ratio has been a disaster against high-pressure units.

The Wolfpack have been much better at limiting second-chance points lately. They are crashing the boards with way more intensity than the Longhorns.

NC State's effective field goal percentage has climbed steadily through the post-season. They are finding high-quality looks and finishing consistently at the rim.

Texas is just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games as a favorite. They consistently underperform when they are expected to control the tempo.

The physical style of NC State is going to wear Texas down by the middle of the second half. The Wolfpack have the deeper rotation and better overall conditioning.

This line should have NC State as a small favorite. We are getting great value on a team that is more balanced on both ends of the floor.

Bet NC State ML (-105).

I have identified two high-value opportunities on today's NBA board that meet my strict criteria for a premium play. You can access both of these selections along with my full analysis by visiting my handicapper profile.

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