Jim Feist Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

There is value in playing the OVER in Dayton-Illinois State tonight, but the wager comes with some serious caveats.  The easiest OVER bet in this game is Dayton putting up points at home. Basically, if the Flyers hit their offensive stride and Illinois State has any kind of functional offense, the OVER is alive.

Illinois State helps its own case here too, as it has shown the ability to score efficiently enough in this tournament against competent defenses. The Redbirds just knocked off Wake Forest by scoring 78 points, and that stat is important as it keeps pace with an expected step up in competition rather than turning the ball over in games that settle for the low 60s.

The point spread isn’t so small that we have to assume this is a blowout, but it’s close enough that we can expect Illinois State to stay in the game long enough where both teams have to worry about scoring. That’s important because close/matches NIT games tend to balloon late as fouling comes into play, while games that are out of reach tend to be bad for OVER bets.

If Dayton hits their stride and scores in the 73-76 range at home, I trust Illinois State’s offense has shown enough firepower in this tournament to go along for the ride.

Jim's Play: 607. Dayton/Illinois State OVER

The biggest reason to like San Francisco involves starter Webb, simply being the better fit for this ballpark and this situation. Oracle Park favors pitchers who induce ground balls and suppress hard contact. Webb is a ground-ball pitcher through and through. Webb entered this season fresh off another excellent showing with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, and San Francisco will again be using him as the opener. He’s trusted to set the tone for this staff, which matters more than season-long metrics in a one-game spot.

San Francisco also has a lineup angle working in their favor. The Giants’ projected order now includes Luis Arraez, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos. That group has more depth and more contact potential than the Giants have typically possessed in recent seasons. That matters against Fried specifically, because the best way to attack a quality left-handed starter involves forcing long at-bats, putting runners on base and minimizing the homer-or-bust approach. The Giants should have more avenues to attack Fried than other recent Giants teams.

Speaking of Devers, he’s also a potential swing factor here. The Giants note how Devers has 31 career homers against the Yankees, which is the most among active players. Devers has accumulated that damage with Boston, but not having to switch organizations to hit Yankees pitching matters. He also had 10 homers in 2022 against New York, so there’s recent production as well. If you’re leaning Giants here, Devers is the reason why.

Lastly, this isn’t really an aces-at-opposite-ends situation. Fried is still excellent, of course. But he is sliding into the Opening Day No. 1 slot because Gerrit Cole is unavailable, and the Yankees are Opening on the road against a quality starter rather than rolling out their traditional ace hierarchy. Fried still projects as above-average in this spot, but the Giants are closer to his level than a Giants fan would expect if Luis Gonzalez were starting.

With the Giants a small home dog, this is too much to pass on here tonight. I'll take Webb and the Giants against the Yankees.

Jim's Play: 988. Giants (Webb)

Houston has some ground to stand on in betting -1.5 against Minnesota Wednesday, March 25, 2026, but the strongest route to that number starts with the injury advantage. The Wolves are still without Anthony Edwards and his right knee inflammation, and  Ayo Dosunmu is questionable. Houston counters with Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams on the injury report, but Edwards not suiting up is the bigger individual loss in this game and Edwards is a massive late-clock shot creator who the Wolves will miss greatly in a spread this close.

The other factor tilting this spread Houston’s way is playoff desperation and the standings. These teams are a half-game apart in the race for Western Conference playoff positioning, so we are not exactly talking about a dead spot in either schedule. For Houston, this is exactly the type of game that will make or break seeding. Playoff implications combined with a near pick’em make betting the fractionally healthier team on the top of the number an appealing play.

Houston also offers a clear path on offense when attacking the rim through its primary playmakers. Houston shot 52% from the field and 47% from deep in its recent victory over Atlanta with Kevin Durant firing and Alperen Sengun nearly recording a triple-double. Houston lost at Chicago next but Sengun dominated with 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists and the Rockets still put up 124 points despite an atrocious start to the game. Houston’s offense seems good enough to win this game if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot again to begin things.

Minnesota becomes a fade when you consider how reliant they are on role players at the moment.  Minnesota has won three of four without Edwards, including recently on the road against Boston. Betting Houston isn’t an easy tilt for those reasons. But Edwards not playing still means the Wolves are having to lean on players like Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert to continue overperforming on offense. Players can have one great game, especially against a Houston team that lacks top-end scoring threats, but betting against Minnesota’s offense regressing some without Edwards makes sense.

At the end of the day, Houston only needs to win by a bucket or two because the number is -1.5. If KD and Sengun dictate the pace on offense and Minnesota senses those missing Edwards possessions down the stretch, Houston has the advantage and should cash.

Jim's Play: 573. Rockets