Freddy Wills Free Betting Picks & Predictions Daily

Clemson +125 3% play

This is very similar to the Georgia game in that you have a regular conference champion going up against the conference new comer, and the game playing on a neutral field in the under dogs home state.  Clemson also has faced the tougher schedule with Georgia and South Carolina in non-conference play.  They also enjoy a major advantage in turnover % per possession as their offense ranks 13th, while SMU’s offense ranks 99th in percentage of possessions ending in a turnover.  Cade Klubnick has quietly enjoyed a really great year, and I think he will have another good game here.  On the flip side SMU struggled in their road game at Duke.  Their offensively line got dominated, but they were lucky enough to come out with a win.  Could we see a similar struggle here tonight? 

Coaching is a huge consideration in these meaningful games, and we obviously have the edge with Dabo.  Rhett Lashlee has done a good job here going 29-10, but 0-2 in bowls is concerning. What’s also concerning is when he goes up against an opposing HC that is clearly a top tier coach his offense struggles.  Manny Diaz at Duke is a good DC, and they struggled.  BYU has an excellent coach in Satake and they struggled.  On the road at Oklahoma last year against Venables and they struggled putting up 11 points, facing TCU last year and they struggled.  Jeff Hafley of BC, trusted defensive mind now the Packers DC faced them in their bowl game and Lashlee’s offense struggled.  In 2022 his first year he had 6 losses, which is understandable, but again most of them were against opposing head coaches that most would consider better coaches, Dykes, Malzahn, Fickel, Fritz & Satake.  Dabo Swinney gets a lot of disrespect in my opinion, and 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the ACC Championship game should garner some respect here.  Swinney’s teams have gone up against Lashlee coordinated teams have scored 17 and 13 points.  I also think this situation with Clemson the way they walked into the ACC Championship game, they are under dogs just fits Dabo Swinney’s personality perfectly.  It will be ironic or not ironic when they find themselves in the college football playoff yet again after beating SMU here.

Georgia +3 1.1% Free Play 

Georgia +3

Georgia struggled especially offensively on the road all year.  They struggled big time at Texas as well, but somehow were able to get up 23-0 and win 30-15, because Texas was ultimately worse.  Carson Beck was horrible with 0TD and 3 INT, and yet they still won.  The biggest key here is that they have to protect Carson Beck.  Luckily this game is in Georgia at the Falcons stadium where they are very familiar with, they crushed Clemson earlier this year 34-3.  

Jalon Walker was the game MVP for Georgia getting pressure on Ewers constantly on the road.  I look for Walker to draw a lot of attention by the Texas offense, and for another Georgia player to make an impact on defense as Texas offense down the stretch did not look great over their last 3 games, and their starting LT is questionable not 100% for this game.  It’s hard to ignore the disparity in strength of schedule.  Despite playing in the SEC for the first time they were able to avoid the top teams in the SEC, Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and not only lost to Georgia, but lost at home.  Georgia played all of those top teams and also played Clemson in non-conference play, and you have to wonder if it was not a torrential rain storm against Ole Miss if that game would have looked different.  

Texas dominated A&M last week, but the Aggies are very one dimensional and pose no threat to throw the ball and were without their top RB down the stretch. In hindsight giving out the Aggies was a bad bet by me, but they had multiple opportunities to punch the ball in the second half to make it 17-14 and could not.  Overall I came away from that game not being impressed with Texas.  They had many chances to really make that game a blowout and could not do it.  I think Georgia is a bit more balanced, and better coached.  I also expect Georgia to be plenty motivated since they lost the SEC Championship game last year, and they’ll want to validate the win over Texas, and get a bye in the playoff.  Carson Beck has to have a better game and I believe he will, while Texas who ranks 109th in turnovers per possession will struggle again on offense.

Penn State +3.5 3.3% play

This is the largest bet game on Saturday, and you have 80% of tickets and money on Oregon at the moment. Three of Oregons wins came by 3 points or less.  I don’t think there is more of an even match up on Saturday than this one.  The only reason we are seeing 3 + the hook on a neutral field is James Franklin can’t win big games.  He has not been able to beat Michigan or Ohio State, but in comes Oregon the best team in the Big Ten this season, but the stats show that these teams are pretty even.  When I look at success rate with garbage time out Penn State averages 25.5 rank in the country compared to oregon 27.6.  These teams have 7 common opponents, Oregon +19.7ppg +150ypg, while Penn State +21.9ppg +143ypg.  Penn State’s defense holding opponents 100 yards less than their season average, Oregon held opponents 84 yards under season average.  Penn State has the better run defense here.

Iowa State +1.5 3.3% play

Nobody expected Arizona STate to be here, and for Matt Campbell and Iowa State they have been working towards a conference championship for years.  Arizona State lost their top and maybe only WR Jordyn Tyson, and I think that’s bad news heading into this game against Iowa State who ranks 5th against the pass.  Iowa State’s defensive weakness is against hte run, but they have faced a lot of top tier rushing offenses, and the teams they have done better against are the teams that run outside zone, which is exactly what Arizona State runs.  I think Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense can set the edge and have some defensive success against the run, and overall they’ll be better in the red zone. 

Iowa State’s offense has not been as good as expected.  Still waiting for their rushing attack to live up to expectations, and Rocco Becht has taken a step back this year, but still they have a pair of 1,000 yard receivers in Higgns and Noel, which is a huge edge on a fast track at Jerry World going up against an Arizona State team that ranks 118th in sack rate, and 103rd in passing success rate defense.  I think Iowa State has the better coach as well, and their fans likely will travel better here.

Miami Ohio -128 3.5% play

Ohio 0-5 in MAC Championship games, and not even supposed to be here. Miami Ohio won the MAC last year, and they were up 30-6 in their meeting with Ohio earlier this season letting Ohio come back a bit for a final score of 30-20.  Ohio runs the ball non stop, and MIami Ohio in MAC play has been allowing less than 3 yards per carry, and their pass defense is even better.  I think there is plenty of motivation for Miami Ohio to go back to back.  They have a veteran QB in Gabbert who should be able to throw on Ohio. Miami Ohio much better at TO % per possession on both sides of the ball.