Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Corey Connors who is listed at +2500 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Connors earned his 8th top-25 finish for the 2022-23 season last week with his tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play event. But without a top-ten this season, Connors could use a good week and the payday. He has qualified for the Masters next week so he can focus his energies on winning this event again after using his 2019 victory here at TPC San Antonio to qualify for the Masters that next week. In all, Connors has made all four cuts when competing at this event with an average score of 69.81. Commented Connors about his affinity for this tournament: “My natural shot seems to fit really well on a lot of these holes, which I like. That's why I like the golf course so much." Connors is one of the best ball-strikers in the field this week. He ranks second in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in his last 24 rounds — and he ranks fourth in the field this week in Ball-Striking in his last 24 rounds. Connors is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hatton is one of my favorites on the tour — but this is not a good week to back him even if he has the shortest odds to win. Hatton injured his hand last week at the Match Play event where he lost all three of his matchups. I would not be surprised if he withdrew from the event before it concludes. Hatton’s eyes are set on Augusta National next week — so even if he plays all four rounds, he is not likely to push it. And this is his first time here at TPC San Antonio so he lacks course familiarity relative to his peers. Take Connors (7002) versus Hatton (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Connors at +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

Our Best Bet on the golfer with the best chance to win this tournament is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Kim won the PGA Sony Open in January — and he has registered seven top-40 finishes in his last eight events after a tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play tournament last week. Kim is a good ball-striker who deserves his short odds this week given the depleted field the week before the Masters. Kim ranks third in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 22nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so his length and his ball-striking should put him in position for birdies. And while this tournament has ranked in the top-13 for most difficult in reaching Greens-In-Regulation, Kim ranks 24th on the tour in Scrambling. Kim ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total this season. After missing the cut in his first trip here in 2016, Kim has made all five cuts since with four top-25 finishes including a tie for 4th place in 2019. And I like that Kim has already qualified for the Masters next week which will not put added pressure on him to compete this week. That is not the case for Rickie Fowler who must hoist the first-place trophy to earn his right to go back to Augusta National to compete. Fowler is playing better golf lately with nine straight cuts made with six top-20s. But this guy remains perpetually overrated after many near misses at major tournaments over the last decade. But Fowler has not actually won a PGA tournament since the WM Phoenix Open in 2019. He ranks 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he is 70th in Scrambling. He has two 17th-place finishes at this event — but I don’t think the extra pressure this week does him any favors. Take Kim (7003) versus Fowler (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Cam Davis who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Cam Davis had made the cut in 13 of 14 PGA Tour events after a tie for 32nd place at the PGA Sony Open in January. But Davis then missed five straight cuts this season. He later confessed during the PLAYERS Championship that he had been battling an illness during that stretch that impacted his game. I think Davis deserves the benefit of the doubt after finishing tied for 6th place at TPC Sawgrass with the PLAYERS considered the unofficial “fifth” major for the competitors on the PGA Tour. He was then in fine form last week at the WGC Match Play Invitational where he finished 2-1-0 in his three matches. He registered 11 birdies in his final two matches against Tom Hoge and Aaron Wise. Davis leads the field this week in Par 5 Scoring in his last 24 rounds — and that will be critical for success this week. Five of the last six winners of this tournament finished in the top ten in Par 5 Scoring with the lone exception being last year when JJ Spaun finished 12th in Par 5 Scoring. Distance matters this week given the length of the course — and going long offers an advantage if the wind is going to keep many of the pros off the fairway. Davis ranks 16th on the tour this season with a Driving Distance average of 310.1 yards. Davis ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — even with his earlier struggles with illness. This is his third trip here after making the cut for the first time  three years ago. Davis is linked with Alex Noren in Round One head-to-head props. Noren makes his debut at TPC San Antonio which puts him at a competitive disadvantage with Davis. His game does not match up well with the challenges the course will offer. Noren is just 79th in Driving Distance for 2022-23 — and that drags down his Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee ranking to 176th on the tour. Noren’s ball-striking has been questionable this season as well. He ranks 100th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 89th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, he ranks only 144th in Par 5 Scoring. Noren’s form has not been great as well. After missing the cut at the PLAYERS Championship earlier this month, he finished tied for 52nd place at WGC Match Play Invitational last week. Take Davis (7140) versus Noren (7139) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Davis at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.