Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 7/6:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday in MLB is with the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the Colorado Rockies listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Kyle Freeland. Los Angeles (59-32) had won three games in a row before their 5-2 loss at home against San Diego on Sunday. The Dodgers stay at home where they have won 25 of their last 34 home games played at night. They have also won 19 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Colorado (37-54) has won four of their last five games after their 7-6 win against San Francisco on Sunday. The Rockies go back on the road where they have lost 26 of their last 37 games when priced as a money-line favorite at +150 or higher. They have also lost 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s 16 of 20 (80%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays continued with a 2-0 Sunday mark — headlined by CA$HING his 25* World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with the Norway-Brazil Over! Now Frank continues his fifth Men’s World Cup handicapping campaign on a 7-2-2 (78%) run this summer which fuels a 24 of 38 (63%) World Cup mark! Frank is on a 4 of 5 (80%) World Cup totals run — and now he furthers his 25 of 39 (64%) TOTALS TEAR in soccer with tonight’s USMNT-Belgium O/U winner on Fox-TV at 8:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

Careful. Thorough. Sincere. Featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016, Frank privileges an evidence-based approach above vibe-guessing with over two decades of experience as a professional sports handicapper.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 7/6:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with the USMNT with the goal-line versus Belgium in the Round of 16. The USMNT (W3-D0-L1) won for the third time in their four matches in the World Cup with a 2-0 victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina last Wednesday. Serious handicappers look to the expected Goals (xG) data for evidence — and the Stars and Stripes limited the Dragons to just 0.25 xG in that contest. The US has only    allowed their four opponents to generate 6 Big Chances (a shot of at least 0.35 expected goal probability to score). FIFA’s reprieve of the red card suspension of Folarin Balogun for this match is huge since it is either Weston McKennie or him that is the best and most important player on the pitch. Belgium (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Round of 16 with a 3-2 victory against Senegal after 30 minutes of extra time after that game was locked at 2-2 after the 90 minutes of regulation time. The Red Devils got an easy draw in Group G with Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand — but they only registered one victory against those foes. Their golden generation is over — and the roster for this World Cup is an odd mix of the last remnants of that group and younger players unproven at this stage in international play. With this match being played at Lumen Field in Seattle, the home soil advantage for the Stars and Stripes will be difficult for a middling European opponent. Take the USMNT with the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s 16 of 20 (80%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays continued with a 2-0 Sunday mark — headlined by CA$HING his 25* World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with the Norway-Brazil Over! Now Frank continues his fifth Men’s World Cup handicapping campaign on a 7-2-2 (78%) run this summer which fuels a 24 of 38 (63%) World Cup mark! Frank is on a 4 of 5 (80%) World Cup totals run — and now he furthers his 25 of 39 (64%) TOTALS TEAR in soccer with tonight’s USMNT-Belgium O/U winner on Fox-TV at 8:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Belgium (225587) and the USMNT (225588) in the Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Belgium (W2-D2-L0) has won two games in a row after their 3-2 victory against Senegal in the Round of 16 last Wednesday. The USMNT (W3-D0-L1) advanced to the Round of 16 with their 2-0 victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Given the red card suspension of striker Folarin Balogun, I was only considering the Under for this match (but likely passing because of the wobbly nature of the US back line). But now that FIFA has broken precedent and rescinded a red card suspension during a World Cup (amidst a controversial phone call request from Donald Trump), the Over is now a solid play. Christian Pulisic gets most of the attention (and all the television commercials) — but it is Balogun that is the straw that stirs the drink for the American attack. In his three matches in this World Cup (he was rested on a yellow card for the Bosnia match), he has scored three times. Manager Mauricio Pochettino discovered last fall that the best way to take advantage of the talent on the Stars and Stripes roster was to deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation that allows for attacking midfielders Weston McKennie and Pulisic the freedom to complement Balogun up front. The US also aggressively deploys the strategic high press that Pochettino was fond of in his previous tenures with Tottenham, Chelsea, and Paris Saint-Germain. Don’t get me wrong about Pulisic: he plays at his best when wearing the stars and stripes. He brings energy to the pitch — and he is more effective when being the Robin to another Batman. He deserves credit for deferring to Balogun and establishing chemistry with him, as this was a question coming into this tournament. There should be little read into their underlying numbers in their previous match since going down to ten men in the 64th minute after the Balogun red card changed the entire tenor of that match (and was one of the two main developments that spoiled our Over play in that match since it required the US to embrace a defensive stance). The Yanks have scored 11 goals in the group stage — and they have generated 12 Big Chances (a shot with an expected Goal probability of at least 35%). They have scored at least once in 17 of their last 21 matches — and they have scored two or more goals in nine of their last 11 contests. But the defense is leaky. Certainly, it was a nice effort to keep the Dragons from scoring despite being down a man for the final 26 minutes of that match. However, don’t underestimate Bosnia’s loss of striker Eden Dzeko due to injury in the 51st minute of that match. He has scored more than 450 goals in over 1000 caps for his country — his absence on the pitch left the Dragons’ attack mostly toothless. At 11 versus 10, Dzeko would have been very dangerous for the Dragons. The USMNT has surrendered at least one goal in 15 of their last 18 matches — and they have only two clean sheets in their last 12 contests. The Yanks’ clean sheets tend to come against their weaker competition. Since 2025, in the ten matches when the books placed the US as a money-line underdog at a +150 or higher price on the three-way line (with the draw option), the USMNT conceded at least one goal nine times — and both teams scored a goal in seven of those contests. In those ten matches, the average combined goals scored was 3.7. Belgium has found their scoring attack by scoring eight combined goals in their last two contests. Under manager Rudi Garcia, the Red Devils tend to adjust to the match tempo of their opponents. They can get drawn into slogs against defensive-minded sides — but they also can punch their weight in higher-scoring contests. Their tactics are pragmatic — and they are content to counter-attack given their W4-D2-L0 mark in their last six matches when their possession number is below 54%. Both teams have scored now in three of their last four matches. Their back line is inexperienced — and there are depth concerns. Against Senegal, they conceded 19 shots, with six of them being deemed a Big Chance. Senegal generated 3.58 expected Goals (xG) — and while we need to take into account the 30 minutes of extra time in that match, an xG of 2.69 per 90 minutes remains an unappealing mark. The thigh injury of starting center back Zeno Debast has not helped. The 21-year-old brings a physical presence at 6’3 and plays professionally for Sporting CP. The Red Devils only gave up one goal in their three group stage matches — but the one thing that Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand have in common is that they are all defensive-minded with minimal scoring attacks. Their match with Senegal was more revealing since that was the first side they encountered willing to play on their front foot.  

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on March 28th this year, which Belgium won by a 5-2 score. While we need to take friendlies with a grain (or two) of salt, the USMNT have now played 8 of their last 11 matches across all competitions Over 2.5 combined goals scored. 20* World Cup USMNT-Belgium Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Belgium (225587) and the USMNT (225588). Best of luck for us — Frank.