Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 26-17 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 7th. Pittsburgh (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-19 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Seahawks generated 354 yards last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Seattle’s offense will be less explosive with quarterback Russell Wilson out for at least the next month— but I think this presents an opportunity for Seattle to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. The Seahawks’ offense is on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game this season. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game is wearing them out. “Let Russ Cook” can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. Look for the Seahawks to run the ball more behind running back Alex Collins and slow the game down to help their beleaguered defense. Seattle goes on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Under is 5-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers had their best offensive game of the season by generating 391 total yards — but the Under is also 35-14-2 in their last 51 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh gave up 268 passing yards to Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Steelers host this game where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 23-9-1 in their last 33 games in October — and Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 October games Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 26-17 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 7th. Pittsburgh (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-19 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Seahawks will be without Russell Wilson in this game — but I think this presents an opportunity for Seattle to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. The Seahawks’ offense is on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game this season. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game is wearing them out. The Seahawks have allowed at least 457 yards in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight games. “Let Russ Cook” can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. Don’t be surprised if Geno Smith plays well at quarterback for this team — especially in a more structured offense under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He had some good moments last week in leading the Seahawks offense to one touchdown drive and keeping them competitive after the Wilson injury. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown and an interception — and he added 23 rushing yards. Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an underdog loss. And while they enjoyed their best offensive game of the season by generating 391 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers’ defense has not been as stout this season as they are giving up 361.7 total YPG — way above their 305.8 total YPG defensive mark last season which was third-best in the NFL. The Broncos gained 374 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is averaging only 18.8 PPG and 319.6 total YPG at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Expect a close game where having the points will offer valuable insurance. 20* NFL Seattle-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Mercury (607) plus the points versus the Chicago Sky (608). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (25-17) finds themselves on the brink of losing the WNBA title after their 86-50 loss on the road against the Sky as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Chicago (23-18) can win the championship this afternoon with their 2-1 lead in this best-of-five series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MERCURY PLUS THE POINTS: After consistently betting the WNBA for the first time in 2019 (with a 13-6 ATS mark — confirming that the fundamentals that I look for in the NBA and CBB tend to apply in this league as well), I have not followed the league as closely in the last two seasons — and I don’t invest in situations if the technical evidence does not support my qualitative assessment of the situation. This is primarily because of the WNBA changing their schedule because of the pandemic — following the league closely enough to invest is too low on my long list of Things To Do during football season (in 2019) or the thick of the NBA/NHL season (earlier this year). I have paid a bit of attention to the WNBA over the last few weeks since I do follow the Las Vegas team — and I almost pulled the trigger on a play then. This situation today is simply too good to pass up — and I would regret it if I did not get down on it. Phoenix only made 25.8% of the shots on Thursday in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. Their loss by 36 points was the largest losing margin in the history of the WNBA playoffs. The Mercury are good — they have a big three of Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi, and Skylar Diggins-Smith who are as good a trio as any team in the league. They outlasted a very good Aces team in the Semifinals in five games. And this is a veteran group that won the WNBA title in 2014. With the 3-point shot, sometimes these lopsided games just happen. Taurasi and Diggins-Smith combined to make just 3 of 19 shots (15.8%). They should shoot better today which will open up space for Griner down low. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. What caught my eye about the Mercury is that they have played better on the road this season where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games. Phoenix has a 15-6 record on the road but just a 10-11 record on their home court. Furthermore, the Mercury has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Chicago played their best defensive game of the season since their first game of the year. They allow their opponents to make 40.2% of their 3-point shots when playing at home even after Phoenix made only 5 of their 20 shots from behind the arc on Friday. The Sky have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest. Chicago is a much better team with a healthy Candace Parker — they have a 20-9 record with her healthy and just a 1-8 mark without her this season. Realizing this kept me from fading the Sky off a big win in the Semifinals against Connecticut, but I am comfortable taking Phoenix in this spot (especially after such an embarrassing effort). The Sky are just 10-10 on their home court after Friday — and have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games when favored. Chicago is also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Mercury are a veteran team with plenty of playoff experience. Taurasi is like Chris Paul at this point in their careers — if he ever won an NBA Title. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the WNBA Finals. The Mercury should keep this game very close with a good chance to force a climactic fifth and final game to determine the WNBA champion. 25* WNBA Game of the Year with the Phoenix Mercury (607) plus the points versus the Chicago Sky (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (110-59) lost the opening game of this best-of-seven series in the National League Championship Series with their 2-1 loss to the Braves on Saturday. Atlanta (92-74) has won six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LIKNE: Los Angeles has still won 22 of their last 28 games — and 19 of those 22 victories were by more than one run. The Dodgers have still won 30 of their last 40 games after playing a game where neither side scored more than three runs. Los Angeles has not allowed more than four runs in nine straight games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least six games. And while the Dodgers have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then won 50 of their last 67 games after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 44 of their last 58 games when favored — and they have won 39 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Dave Roberts gave Scherzer an extra day of rest after he got the save in Game Five of the NLDS with a 13-pitch ninth inning on Thursday. The right-hander had a 15-4 record with a 2.46 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP in the regular season with the Dodgers and Washington Nationals. Since being acquired by Los Angeles, Scherzer posted a 7-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 11 regular season starts. In his three appearances in this postseason, Scherzer has a 1.46 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings. His teams have won 13 of their last 14 games on the road as a money-line favorite priced at -125 or higher when he is making the start. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .236 Batting Average, .297 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .688. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 games in the playoffs as an underdog. And in their last 7 home games in the NLCS, the Braves have lost 5 of these games. They counter with Anderson who has a 9-5 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts. He has regressed a in the second half of the season a bit with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his last eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics have been calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 moving forward. Anderson did pitch five scoreless innings in his last start on Monday in the NLDS against Milwaukee — but Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 games with Anderson following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 7 games with Anderson pitching as a money-line underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the -1.5 Run-Line spread in 18 of their last 21 victories when favored at a -155 or higher price including nine of these last ten situations. 25* MLB Sunday TBS-TV Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-1) won their fourth game in a row on Monday with their 31-25 win against Indianapolis in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 47-42 victory at home against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore should build off their momentum after playing a bad game for three quarters against the Colts. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning at least four games in a row. And in their last 5 games after a point spread loss, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore averages 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry and 168 rushing Yards-Per-Game when playing at home which will present a challenge for this Chargers team that struggles to stop the run. Los Angeles ranks second-to-last in run defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They are last in the NFL by allowing 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have allowed at least 180 rushing yards in three of their five games. The Chargers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they generated 493 yards last week, they have failed to cover the appoint spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Special teams are also an issue for this team with four missed extra points already this season. Los Angeles ranks 29th in the special teams in DVOA — and the Ravens are 2nd in the NFL in special teams DVOA.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 47-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Arizona (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 victory at home against San Francisco as a 6-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland lost to the Chargers despite outgaining them by +38 net yards. The Browns have won the yardage battle in all five of their games this season — but two blown double-digit leads represent the two blemishes on their record. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Browns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a bad matchup for the Cardinals who allowed their opponents to average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Cleveland leads the NFL by averaging 188 rushing YPG and 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Granted, the Browns are missing Nick Chubb for this game — but this is an opportunity for Kareem Hunt to be the featured back. Cleveland’s ground game thrives from one of the best offensive lines in the league. They rushed for 230 yards last week against the Chargers — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. And while they outrushed the Chargers by +118 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Arizona may be due for a letdown after their undefeated start to the season. They have covered the point spread in three straight games with their last two games against the Rams and 49ers. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And in their last 36 games after winning three games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these games. As if traveling east was enough of a challenge, the Cardinals are dealing with a COVID outbreak that will keep not only head coach Kliff Kingsbury but also their quarterbacks' coach from traveling with the team. My cynical reaction to this news is that Arizona may be better off without Kingsbury — but he is the play-caller for the team. The loss of the QB coach is also big since he is the one who communicates Kyler Murray’s in-game thoughts and preferences to the play-caller. The loss of these coaches on the sidelines creates chaos — the Saints got beat badly by 19 points at Carolina in Week Two after their COVID outbreak left them without some coaches on the sidelines. Their best pass rusher Chandler Jones is also out with COVID. Murray is not 100% either as he is dealing with an arm injury. Murray only ran for one yard last week while dealing with that injury. Arizona is just 1-7-1 straight-up when Murray does not rush for at least 15 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters even more for the Cardinals, high winds in the 20 miles-per-hour range are expected in Cleveland this afternoon — making a good rushing attack even more valuable with the wind impacting balls in the air. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-4) has lost four in a row after their 45-17 loss at Tampa Bay as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (0-5) has lost 20 games in a row going back to last season after their 37-19 loss to Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: In this battle of struggling AFC teams, I side with the better head coach and better team culture in Brian Flores in his third year with Miami — especially in handling the challenge of traveling across the Atlantic Ocean to play in this game. Perhaps regression was due for the Dolphins after their 10-6 campaign last year — but injuries have played a role in their four-game losing streak. Miami should play better this morning. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Flores is a defensive coach — he will address this unite that got shredded by Tom Brady for 558 total yards last week. Miami does get Tua Tagovailoa back for this game after he was knocked out early in Week Two. I guess I am a Tua supporter only because I find the arguments that he is a bust to be vastly premature. Without the benefit of training camp last season and coming off his hip injury that shortened his career at Alabama, he still completed 64.1% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions in a timeshare with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He won six of the nine games he started — and he won his first start this season at New England. But this is an In Flores I Trust situation. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Miami has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games under Flores between Weeks Five and Nine. Urban Meyer needs to send Thank You notes to Jon Gruden for bumping his name off the Coaches in Crisis headlines this week. After Meyer’s controversy with not flying back with his team after their loss at Cincinnati, it was telling that the Jaguars did not rally around their career-college head coach in their 18-point loss to the Titans. There are numerous reports that Meyer has lost the room. This was not the first controversy that Meyer has had since taking the job with the Jaguars. From hiring the strength coach from Iowa with a history of “racially-charged” language to then the Tim Tebow vanity project in August, Meyer has consistently demonstrated that he thinks he is above normal professional behavior in the league. That is the wrong look for college head coaches attempting to make the jump to the league. The long trip to London tends to expose internal disfunction. As it is, this is a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Trevor Lawrence did complete 23 of 33 passes for 273 yards last week in a losing effort — but the Jaguars are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. After the New York Jets loss to Atlanta last Sunday morning with rookie Bryce Wilson under center, teams using a rookie quarterback are 0-5 when playing in London while being outscored by -85 net points in those games. Rookies QBs have not passed for more than more touchdown passes in any of those five games. 20* NFL Miami-Jacksonville London Special with the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.