Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

Take the Denver Nuggets minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indiana Pacers. Denver (29-12) has won three games in a row with their 134-131 win at Golden State on Thursday as a 3-point favorite. The Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Indiana (27-15) has won four straight games with their 116-114 win over Minnesota on Friday. This is the Pacers’ third straight game against a Western Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least their two previous games against non-conference opponents. Indiana is also just 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Take Denver minus (or plus) the point(s). Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports JUST DELIVERED their 25* AFC Total of the Year this afternoon with the Tennessee-Kansas City Over to further their RED HOT 26 of 37 (70%) NFL Game of the Year run! Now Frank UNLEASHES his 25* NFC Game of the Year for the Green Bay-San Francisco ATS winner on Fox-TV at 6:40 PM ET! BANK on Frank!

Frank SWEPT THE BOARD this afternoon with Kansas City and the Titans-Chiefs Over to fuel his RED HOT 15 of 21 (68%) All-Sports run for the last nine days! Frank is now on a NEAR PERFECT 5 of 6 (83%) NFL Playoff run after he SWEPT BOTH OVERS last Sunday in the NFL playoffs which furthered his 13 of 20 (65%) NFL TOTALS TEAR along with his longer running 60 of 99 (61%) NFL Totals mark! Now Frank has tonight’s Packers-49ers’ O/U winner on Fox-TV at 6:40 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (311) and the San Francisco 49ers (312). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory at home. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Green Bay has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning at least six straight games. The Packers surrendered 375 yards to the Seahawks in the victory — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has a mediocre defense that has been protected by their commitment to running the football. The Packers rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 352.8 total YPG while the analytics used by Football Outsiders rank their defense 15th in the league in DVOA. Green Bay now goes on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 straight games Over the Total in January. The Packers have seen an uptick in their productivity on offense as of late as they have scored 24.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 386.3 total YPG. San Francisco has scored 29.0 PPG over their last three games which is right in line with their 29.9 PPG scoring average this season which is 2nd best in the league. The 49ers raise that mark to 31.8 PPG in their nine games at home this season. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. And in their last 10 games against teams from the NFC, the Over is 7-2-1 for the Niners.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 37-8 victory over the Packers by a 37-8 score. Green Bay could not stop the San Francisco offense in that game with the Niners averaging 7.5 Yards-Per-Play. But Aaron Rodgers may have played his worst game of the season as eh managed only 104 passing yards with the Packers averaging a mere 2.8 YPP. Look for Green Bay’s offense to be much more effective in this rematch in what should be a higher scoring game. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score. Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I suspect that the Titans are due for a huge emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. Tennessee has been on the road for three straight weeks — and pulling off three “must-win” games away from home is a very difficult achievement. Asking this team to pull this feat on the road for a fourth consecutive week is simply a bridge too far. As it is, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after pulling off an upset win by at least 14 points on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games. The formula for success for this team is to run Derrick Henry against the suspect Chiefs run defense. However, that is a plan that will not work if Kansas City takes an early lead which I expect them to do on their home field. Even during their three-game winning streak, Tennessee has been outgained by -33.0 YPG. And in their ten games on the road, the Titans have been outgained by -2.3 net YPG despite their 7-3 record away from home. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City should build off their momentum from last week as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Kansas City generated 434 yards of offense against the Houston defense in that win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Chiefs defense did look vulnerable by allowing 442 yards to the Texans. However, Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Chiefs get to host this game in Arrowhead Stadium where they have outscored their opponents by +6.6 PPG. They have also outscored their last three opponents by +17.7 PPG while putting up 36.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs average 281.1 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City CBS-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog. Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score.

THE SITUATION: The Titans have won three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 14 points in those three victories — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. The Titans defeating the Ravens last week despite surrounding 530 yards of offense. Tennessee allowed 6.02 Yards-Per-Play to Baltimore while giving up 345 passing yards. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after giving up at least 6.0 YPP. Now the Titans go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Tennessee defense is perhaps not as good as advertised as they rank 21st in the NFL by allowing 359.5 total YPG. They also surrender 255.0 passing YPG which is 24th in the league — and that is not a good sign when facing this Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes which is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG. Kansas City has won seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Chiefs generated 434 yards against the Texans last week — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in all seven of their victories on their hot streak — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games while covering those games as the favorite. The Chiefs host this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Chiefs allow 350 YPG this season, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. Look for Kansas City to exceed the 29.4 PPG scoring average they manage when playing at home with Tennessee playing catch-up and scoring in the 20s. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.