Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 4/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with the Portland Trail Blazers plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns in the Play-In Tournament. Portland (42-40) is currently the eighth seed in the Western Conference — and eight seeds in the Play-In Tournament have covered the point spread in 9 of those last 11 games. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against Pacific Division opponents. Phoenix (45-37) has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games this month. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 210s. Take Portland plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer closed out last season on a 16 of 24 (75%) NBA run in the postseason with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and now he has tonight’s Portland-Phoenix O/U winner on Amazon Prime at 10:10 PM ET in the Play-In Tournament! Want ONE MORE WINNER for Tuesday? BANK on Frank!

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Phoenix Suns (564) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Portland (42-40) has won five of their last seven games after their 122-110 win against Sacramento as an 18.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (45-37) has won two of their last three games after their 135-103 upset victory at Oklahoma City as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game earns the seventh seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The loser plays the winner of the Golden State-Los Angeles Clippers showdown on Friday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have emerged as one of the very best defensive outfits in the NBA. They rank 11th for the season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but in the last quarter of the regular season and in their last 15 games, they lead the league in that metric. Donovan Clingan is averaging 2.4 blocks per game since March 8th. Portland has two of the best defenders in the NBA when Jrue Holiday and Clingan are on the court together — and Robert Williams III is an excellent defender coming off the bench to spell for Clingan. But the Trail Blazers’ offense is a weakness as they rank only 22nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They struggle with their shooting as they rank just 22nd in the NBA with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%. Portland has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 15 of their last 23 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams that are winning 51-60% of their games. Phoenix nailed 55.4% of their shots on Sunday, including 48.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Those were their best shooting marks in their last 35 and 32 games respectively. The Suns rank just 19th in the league with an effective field goal percentage of 53.7%. But Phoenix should frustrate the Trail Blazers scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers. They rank third in the NBA by forcing turnovers in 16.5% of their opponent’s possessions. Portland is last in the league by turning the ball over in 16.9% of their possessions. The Suns have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They return home where they have played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Trail Blazers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 92-77 score back on February 22nd — and Phoenix has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total at home when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings against each other Under the Total. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Phoenix Suns (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (566) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (565) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (44-38) has won five of their last seven games after their 110-96 win in New York against the Knicks as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (43-39) has won two games in a row after their 143-117 win at home against Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game plays the loser of the Orlando-Philadelphia game on Friday to determine the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The loser’s season ends. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has been the biggest surprise in the NBA this season after only winning 19 games last year. Since January 2nd, they have a 33-15 record. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games. LeMelo Ball is thriving. Brandon Miller is finally healthy. Don Knueppel has met every expectation — and his 3-point shooting allows this team to excel in the modern game that emphasizes shooting from behind the arc. The Hornets play at the second slowest pace in the league — but their efficiency should not be dismissed when it comes to their scoring output tonight. They rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games at home against teams with a winning record. The Heat held the Hawks to 47.3% shooting, which was the best defensive effort in their last four games -- and Atlanta’s 38.6% mark from behind the arc was the lowest clip from 3-point range for Miami’s last six opponents. Miami’s defense has fallen off the cliff in the final month of the season. For the season, they rank 14th in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.6 — but in their last 15 games, they fall to 28th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 124.6. In part, the return of Tyler Herro from injury has helped their scoring but hurt their defensive play since that is not his strong suit. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 22 games played when both Herro and Norman Powell are healthy and playing on the court. But more fundamentally, the Heat’s style of play has simply worn them out. Head coach Erik Spoelstra brought in Memphis Grizzlies assistant coach Noah LaRoche in the offseason to install a new offensive approach that privileges playing as fast as possible with the basketball. Miami bypasses using screens — instead, the focus is getting downhill, putting up the first decent look at the basket, and getting back on defense. But this hyper pace takes a toll — as it did with the Grizzlies last season. Memphis ranked in the top 12 in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for much of the regular season last year before their defensive efforts took a turn for the worse. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Hornets tore apart the Heat’s defensive efforts the last time these two teams played on March 17th in a 136-106 win at home. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when attempting to avenge a loss by 20 or more points. 8* NBA Miami-Charlotte Amazon Prime Special with the Charlotte Hornets (566) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (565). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (565) and the Charlotte Hornets (566) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (43-39) has won two games in a row after their 143-117 win at home against Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Charlotte (44-38) has won five of their last seven games after their 110-96 win in New York against the Knicks as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game plays the loser of the Orlando-Philadelphia game on Friday to determine the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The loser’s season ends. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat held the Hawks to 47.3% shooting, which was the best defensive effort in their last four games -- and Atlanta’s 38.6% mark from behind the arc was the lowest clip from 3-point range for Miami’s last six opponents. Miami’s defense has fallen off the cliff in the final month of the season. For the season, they rank 14th in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.6 — but in their last 15 games, they fall to 28th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 124.6. In part, the return of Tyler Herro from injury has helped their scoring but hurt their defensive play since that is not his strong suit. The Heat have played 15 of their 22 games Over the Total when both Herro and Norman Powell are healthy and playing on the court. But more fundamentally, the Heat’s style of play has simply worn them out. Head coach Erik Spoelstra brought in Memphis Grizzlies assistant coach Noah LaRoche in the offseason to install a new offensive approach that privileges playing as fast as possible with the basketball. Miami bypasses using screens — instead, the focus is getting downhill, putting up the first decent look at the basket, and getting back on defense. But this hyper pace takes a toll — as it did with the Grizzlies last season. Memphis ranked in the top 12 in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for much of the regular season last year before their defensive efforts took a turn for the worse. The Heat have played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total, including 10 of those 15 games played on the road. They have played 17 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 7 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 19 games in April Over the Total, including 8 of those 10 games this season. Charlotte held the Knicks to 43.3% shooting along with a 32.5% mark from behind the arc — both of those numbers were the lowest shooting percentage for their last six opponents. The Hornets play at the second slowest pace in the league — but their efficiency should not be dismissed when it comes to their scoring output tonight. Miami averages 105.1 possessions per game — and Charlotte has played 5 of their 7 games Over the Total against teams who average at least 105 possessions per game this season. The Hornets have played three straight Unders — but they have then played 6 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They have played 6 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total against teams that are winning 51-60% of their games. And in their last 13 games in April, they have played 8 of those games Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Hornets tore apart the Heat’s defensive efforts the last time these two teams played on March 17th in a 136-106 win at home. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other Over the Total which is telling regarding how these contracts in style play out. The four games these two teams played against each other saw combined scores of 261, 234, 248, and 242 points. 25* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (565) and the Charlotte Hornets (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.