Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes off a 7-9-1 record last year. New York (0-0) begins the John Harbaugh era following their 4-13 campaign last season. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After winning only seven games the last two seasons, the Giants hit the Available Head Coach Lottery in the offseason when the Ravens and John Harbaugh parted ways. In 18 mostly successful seasons in Baltimore, Harbaugh’s teams posted a 180-113 (.614) record with 12 playoff appearances and a Super Bowl victory. Harbaugh’s biggest immediate challenge is changing the culture of this football team — from entrenched cronies in the office rooms to too many “me-first” attitudes in the locker room who are only too happy to leak their latest football opinion to the ever-eager New York media. It is going to take Harbaugh to professionalize this outfit. In the short run, look for Harbaugh to emphasize sound fundamental football — and that means running the ball, burning time off the clock, keeping the defense off the field, and attempting to shorten the game. The offensive line is promising. Four of the five expected starters have been together the previous two seasons — and either first-round draft pick Francis Mauigoa or free agent signing from Baltimore Daniel Faalele should take the right guard spot that is still in question. Signing Ravens’ fullback Patrick Ricard was smart and should help the ground game. The Giants have played 7 of their last 8 games in September Under the Total. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, in Harbaugh’s 21 games at home as an underdog for the Ravens, 13 of those games finished Under the Total. For Dallas, the defense can only improve after surrendering a franchise-worst 511 points. There is plenty of optimism on that side of the ball now with the coaching staff revamped under first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker. He served as the defensive backs coach and passing game coordinator for defensive coordinator Vince Fangio for Philadelphia the last two seasons. The talent on defense has improved. The team drafted Ohio State safety Caleb Downs in the first round. They traded for edge rusher Rashon Gary from Green Bay and signed defensive tackle Otto Ogbonnia in free agency. Having defensive end Quinnen Williams for a full season certainly helps after acquiring him in a midseason trade with the New York Jets last year. He is a good fit for the 3-4 scheme they are switching to this season. Dallas had an explosive offense last season as they ranked second in the NFL by generating 391.9 total Yards-Per-Game — but on the road, they averaged -23.7 fewer YPG which resulted in -1.9 fewer Points-Per-Game. Quarterback Dan Prescott did not play in the preseason — so don’t be surprised if he is a bit rusty, as Matthew Stafford was on Sunday after not playing in a preseason game. As it is, the Cowboys have played 3 of their last 4 games in September Under the Total since Brian Schottenheimer became their head coach. 

FINAL TAKE: These two NFC East rivals have played 16 of their last 26 meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins the John Harbaugh era following their 4-13 campaign last season. Dallas (0-0) comes off a 7-9-1 year. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: After winning only seven games the last two seasons, the Giants hit the Available Head Coach Lottery in the offseason when the Ravens and John Harbaugh parted ways. In 18 mostly successful seasons in Baltimore, Harbaugh’s teams posted a 180-113 (.614) record with 12 playoff appearances and a Super Bowl victory. Harbaugh’s biggest immediate challenge is changing the culture of this football team — from entrenched cronies in the office rooms to too many “me-first” attitudes in the locker room who are only too happy to leak their latest football opinion to the ever-eager New York media. Previous head coach Brian Daboll did not help matters with his frequent temper tantrums on the sidelines — Harbaugh’s steadying leadership will be a breath of fresh air. The bad culture stuff probably leaked onto the field. The Giants had an 8-4-1 record in one-possession games in Daboll’s first season. Since then, they have lost 19 of their 25 games decided by eight points or less, including losing 15 of those 17 games in the last two seasons. New York is better than their 4-13 record last season — and they only got outgained by -26.0 Yards-Per-Game last season, which is the mark of a team with a 7-10 record. But while the roster has some nice high-end talent, depth is a significant problem after years of bad drafting by general manager Joe Schoen. One of the smartest things Harbaugh did — and it was the last sticking point before he signed the contract — was to gain full control of player personnel over Schoen. Second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart has potential after a solid rookie season. Harbaugh will rein in his tendency to be too reckless when running with the football. The offensive line is promising. Four of the five expected starters have been together the previous two seasons — and either first-round draft pick Francis Mauigoa or free agent signing from Baltimore Daniel Faalele should take the right guard spot that is still in question.  Signing Ravens’ fullback Patrick Ricard was smart and should help the ground game. Harbaugh’s teams with the Ravens were usually strong out of the gate. His teams have covered the point spread in 22 of their 35 games played in the first two weeks of the season — and they covered the point spread in 12 of their 18 games in the opening week. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in the first half of the season. The Cowboys’ defense was awful last year, surrendering a franchise-worst 511 points. There is plenty of optimism on that side of the ball now with the coaching staff revamped under first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker. While he served as the defensive backs coach and passing game coordinator for defensive coordinator Vince Fangio for Philadelphia the last two seasons, it may be too much to ask for the 34-year-old to immediately fix this unit — especially given the shift from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored, including 4 of those 5 games played on the road. Additionally, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against fellow NFC rivals. 

FINAL TAKE: In his 97 games with the Ravens when they were the underdogs, Harbaugh’s teams were 56-38-3 ATS. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 9/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Las Vegas Raiders minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins. After a 3-14 campaign, the Raiders decided it was a mistake to hire the 73-year-old Pete Carroll as their next head coach. In theory, bringing in the former Super Bowl-winning head coach was an attempt to professionalize the building (just down the road from the Hollywood Sports offices). There is nothing like failed nepotism to make me sour on someone — and Carroll installing his underqualified son, Brennan, as his offensive line coach did it. In my deep dive on this team last year, the offensive line unit looked mediocre, at best. But after a season-ending injury to left tackle Kolton Miller and ongoing injuries to center Jackson Powers-Johnson, the Raiders’ offensive line quickly became outmatched in talent. The offensive line coach gifted into his position of authority was not qualified to coach up the remaining players. It got so bad that by the end of the season, quarterback Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty, and the healthy offensive linemen were holding subterfuge meetings away from the coaches just to get on the same page. Everything about the Las Vegas offense last season needs to be taken through the lens of utter dysfunction and lack of talent on their offensive line. Jeanty should be better.  After running the offense that helped Seattle win the Super Bowl, first-year head coach Klint Kubiak hired Rick Dennison, who is considered one of the best offensive line coaches in the business. The brain trust also gave Baltimore’s Tyler Linderbaum the highest free agent contract ever for a center to help solidify the position. With Miller and Powers-Johnson (moving to left guard) healthy again, the hope is that Dennison can coach up five players on the depth chart who were drafted in the first three rounds of the last three drafts. The Raiders’ defense was underrated last season by ranking 14th in the league by holding their opponents to 317.8 total Yards-Per-Game. After the attempted trade debacle of defensive end Maxx Crosby, the pass rusher is back and complemented by a slew of free agent pickups management made immediately after that trade before Baltimore pulled out when Crosby failed his medical test. For Miami, the long rebuild for this Dolphins franchise begins this season. The die was probably cast when the organization extended quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract in the summer of 2024, despite having the option of putting the franchise tag on him to kick the can down the road for up to two years. The team was simply not realistic about his value given his serious history of concussions. Head coach Mike McDaniel tried to scheme his way around the problem to keep Tagovailoa safe — but that necessarily put limits on his play-calling. Now McDaniel has been fired along with general manager Chris Grier after seven seasons, who was ultimately responsible for drafting Tagovailoa before Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts and then extending his contract. The new plan appears to be to transform the Miami Dolphins into the Green Bay Packers South (because of all their recent Super Bowl appearances?). Long-time Green Bay executive Jon-Eric Sullivan, who was mostly their Vice President of Player Personnel, was brought on as their next general manager. He poached the Packers’ defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as the team’s next head coach. It was just three years ago that Hafley was the head coach at Boston College. Sullivan inherited a whopping $179.5 million in dead cap money this season — that represents 59.6% of the salary cap. Seven former players are getting paid at least $10 million in dead cap money this season — and only two players on this year’s roster represent cap hits of at least $10 million this year. Good luck trying to be competitive with only 40.4% of the salary cap available to construct a roster. This explains why Tyreek Hill was released, and Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver, but it leaves the wide receiver room thin. In keeping with the Packers’ theme, Sullivan signed Green Bay backup quarterback Malik Willis as a free agent. I don’t love that Hafley is calling the plays on defense since he already has enough on his plate making the transition to NFL head coach. With $55 million of dead cap money still on the books next season, his priority should be simply overseeing enough improvement that he is still around for the 2028-29 season. In a battle between two rebuilding franchises, the Raiders’ climb is a little less steep. Take Las Vegas minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 8 of 11 (73%) NFL TOTALS TEAR continued on Thursday by DELIVERING their 25* NFC West Total of the Month with the 49ers-Rams Under to further their 29 of 44 (66%) NFL over/under streak! Now Frank furthers his 8 of 10 (80%) NFL run with a 25* NFL Divisional Total of the Month for Sunday afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (467) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (468). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) looks to improve on their 3-14 season last year. Tennessee (0-0) was in the same boat with a 3-14 record in 2025-26.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINT(S): Regarding the Jets’ 3-14 campaign under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn, I’m just willing to read too much into it. The fundamental challenge every NFL team faces is finding a franchise quarterback — and that zeal can lead to overreaches that delay real progress. Trying to squeeze water out of the rock that was Aaron Rodgers was a mistake. And I don’t think there was a rookie quarterback worth the seventh pick in the NFL — so take the best or second-best offensive tackle of that class in tackle Armand Mambou. Given that, take a flier on seeing if there can be value extracted from former first-round pick Justin Fields at quarterback. We now know the answer is “no,” as he is not close to being a professional quarterback in the passing game. It was worth the risk — and the franchise then played for the future by trading both cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams before Week Nine after a 1-7 start for immediate talent and a boatload of draft capital. Both of those trades returned nice hauls. I like both moves — and it is hard to deliver Glenn too many demerits when the team cut bait on two former All-Pros. Given an injury to Tyrod Taylor, the team resorted to starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook at quarterback for their final four games in what was a de facto NBA tank job. So, of course, it failed — because that became the plan from Week Nine after a 1-7 start. Now it is about developing their high draft choices while maybe offering a positive reclamation home for previous high-round draft choices like wide receiver Adonai Mitchell from Indianapolis or defensive tackle Mazi Smith from Dallas. They enter the 2026-27 season with an intriguing roster. Coming from the Lions' recent rebuild, it’s not surprising that Glenn wants to build from his offensive line. Left tackle Olu Fashanu joins Mambou at right tackle as two young former first-round draft picks forming the foundation of what could be a very good line. After the season-ending injury to right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker last season, Joe Trippman thrived in the move from center to that position, and former Green Bay Packers free agent Josh Myers was a great fit at center. If Los Angeles Chargers free agent Dylan Parham can solve the left guard problem, then the Jets may be on to something. New York has assembled a fascinating mix of diverse targets in the passing game. Garrett Wilson is a legit WR1 who missed 10 games last year to injury. Mitchell demonstrated his vast potential as a second-round draft pick after his collegiate career at Georgia and then Texas by catching 23 balls for 301 yards in a Jets’ uniform. At 6’2, his 4.34 speed in the 40-yard dash is more than intriguing. Second-year tight end Mason Taylor may be on the verge of a breakout season after catching 44 balls for 369 yards last year. And then the Jets used their draft capital to select Indiana slot receiver Omar Cooper, Jr. and Oregon’s freak of nature tight end Kenyon Sadiq in the first round of the NFL draft. That is a very interesting mix of skill sets. Running back Breece Hall returns as one of the best running and receiving threats out of the backfield — and after generating 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry last year, he can do wonders if not facing eight- or nine-man fronts this season, given all those passing threats that have been assembled. The organization turned to 35-year-old Geno Smith in free agency as a bridge quarterback — and I like the move. First, I did not like the young quarterbacks available to them, either in their drafting position or in free agency. Second, I pay more attention to the analytics folks than I do the ankle-biting 24/7 sports industrial complex where mocking professional quarterbacks has become a pastime. It is not a ringing endorsement of Smith to state that his accomplishments at quarterback are more than everyone of his critics' greatest accomplishments in an area of life; it’s merely a reflection of the sorry state of our media. At least with the old adage of “those who can’t do, then teach”, there is positive value in teaching. I don’t think Patrick Mahomes was going to do much behind the Las Vegas offensive line last season. Yet Smith still managed to rank 14th in accuracy rate and 12th in Adjusted Completion Percentage last season. He was also deemed responsible for just 11.5% of the Pressure Rate he endured last year, ranking 10th best in the NFL. When operating in a clean pocket last season, he completed  75.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and a 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Glenn brought in a veteran offensive coordinator and former head coach with Indianapolis and Carolina (where he quickly became the scapegoat by a meddling know-it-all billionaire owner), Frank Reich. The calming presence and expertise of Reich overseeing the wily veteran Smith with really, really nice arm talent — if that offensive line can give him time, watch out. On the other side of the ball, the results were horrific — especially after the Gardner trade. I have mixed feelings about Glenn taking over calling the defensive plays. In almost all instances, I do not like head coaches pulling double duty by calling plays on offense or defense, given the background that got them the job. On the other hand, if Glenn is correct that his “superpower” is his innate talent to call plays on defense, who am I to argue with a former All-Pro cornerback who proved himself calling defensive plays with the Detroit Lions' recent resurgence? If this is his “superpower,” then his team needs it. New York just experienced a statistical anomaly when they failed to record even one interception, forced only eight fumbles, and recovered just three of them. The Jets forced turnovers in 1.7% of their opponents' drives, the lowest mark for any NFL team since 1993. I feel very comfortable in predicting that number will go up (way up). New York is going to be much better on the field. The only question is by how much they will exceed expectations. And while the Jets’ against the spread record has been pretty dismal lately, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 contests against the Titans. We are living in an NFL era where more and more eccentric billionaire owners are meddling their way through sustained mediocrity of their football team — and while Tennessee owner and nepo baby Amy Adams Strunk may not get the headlines, there are very good arguments that perhaps she should take the cake. In my deep dive on this team last year, I delved into some of the more salacious details of her tenure since her father and longtime owner, Bud Adams, passed away. With the resignation of President of Operations Chad Brinker after April’s draft, the Titans are on their fourth executive football decision-maker (under the owner, of course) in the last five seasons. General manager Mike Borgonzi won the power battle that Strunk instigated when she hired Brinker and Borgonzi a year ago and ended the one-year so-called “collaboration” tenure. It was previous general manager Ran Carthon who hired Brian Callahan as head coach. With his firing two weeks before Halloween last year, Tennessee is on their fourth head coach in four seasons, including last season’s interim head coach Mike McCoy. In four straight seasons, the Titans have either set the proverbial reset button with a new general manager, a new head coach, or a new starting quarterback. This lack of continuity (and patience) has played a large role in Tennessee’s 19-49 record during that span — and they are just 6-28 in the last two years after repeating wretched 3-14 campaigns. In hindsight, the Callahan hire seemed doomed from the start. Not only did Callahan not call the plays in Cincinnati under Bengals head coach Zac Taylor in his five seasons as the “offensive coordinator”, but he also hired first-year offensive and defensive coordinators. As I wrote in my deep dive at the time: “It is concerning that the head coach, offensive, and defensive coordinators are all rookies at their new responsibilities.” In comes former New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh, who spent last season overseeing the M*A*S*H unit that was the San Francisco 49ers defense. Apparently, those injuries were enough to excuse a mediocre season on that side of the ball. Saleh still has a good reputation as a defensive mind — and that is a good reason to hire him as a defensive coordinator. However, he struggled with game management as the head coach for the Jets — and his teams often got out of the gates slow, contradicting his reputation as a motivator. Perhaps even worse, he got swallowed up by the drama and politics in that Jets organization — and that is not a good indicator that he has the tool set to successfully wade through the dysfunction of this Tennessee organization. I tend to like bringing on head coaches with at least one prior tour of duty with those responsibilities. In Saleh’s instance, I’m not sure one year was long enough for him to digest and learn from his past mistakes with the Jets. Saleh turned to former New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll to run the offense. While Daboll is still considered a bright offensive mind, it should be noted that top achievements on that side of the ball almost begin and end with helping nurture the development of Josh Allen when he was offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. Allen’s list of guys he has helped get head coaching gigs continues to grow, which tends to happen for those with superstar talent. Yet there is another area of concern when it comes to the arrival of Saleh and Daboll. Saleh has leaned in heavily on getting Borgazi to bring in familiar faces. As of late July, seven of the new players had previously played for Saleh either in New York or San Francisco, and five of the new players were Giants during Daboll’s era. In all, the organization invested $91.8 million per year on former players of Saleh or Daboll — and that, by itself, would represent the sixth-highest free agent class in NFL history. When the retreads are bringing in their retreads, there could be a problem. Hey, I get it. Legendary head coach Bill Parcells liked to bring in some of his guys to help infuse the culture he wanted in the locker room. But can I gently inject that the cultures and successes of Parcells’ teams in his career were of a dramatically different scale than the train wrecks that were the Jets and Giants in Saleh’s and Daboll’s tenure? That sentence is ready to be copied and pasted for my deep dive on the 2029 Tennessee Titans. All that aside, the primary challenge for this organization is to put second-year quarterback Cam Ward in a position to succeed. He was not served last season when his offensive-minded head coach was fired after six games. His wide receivers dropping 25% of his passes did not help either. On the plus side, Ward survived the ordeal and put up better numbers in the second half, especially in the last five games of the year when the Titans were surprisingly competitive against some good teams. But there are plenty of red flags. Ward ranked last in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Pass play. His 70.5% accuracy rate was the fifth worst in the league — and his Passing Success Rate numbers trailed only the quarterbacks the Cleveland Browns were using. His internal clock needs work after leading the NFL by taking 55 sacks. He fumbled 11  times, losing seven of those balls — both league highs. His progression reads after the first look need lots of work. Ward often appeared like he did not trust his wide receivers — and it is tough not to blame him. They took Ohio State’s Carnell Tate as the first wide receiver off the board in the NFL draft. But it is also tough to conclude that the offensive line was improved with two journeymen free agents added (granted, only one comes from the Saleh/Daboll stable) along with fifth and sixth round draft picks. The defense needs a lot of work to complement All-Pro Jeffrey Simmons — this unit ranked 29th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The hope is that the Saleh/Gus Bradley partnership can quickly get familiar faces up to speed in their system right away — and that Daboll will steward Ward’s development on the other side of the ball. But the overriding question when assessing the depth chart of this team remains: where is the talent? Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: In Saleh’s 13 games as a head coach in September, his teams have failed to cover the point spread 9 times. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the New York Jets (467) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (475) and the Philadelphia Eagles (476). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) comes off a 5-12 losing record last season. Philadelphia (0-0) saw their 11-7 season end in a 23-19 loss at home against San Francisco in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After reaching the NFC Championship Game in January of 2025, there were plenty of reasons to expect this team to take a step back last season. General manager Adam Peters was very aggressive in bringing in veterans who could potentially take them to the next level. I had some cautious optimism that the Commanders could make another deep run in the playoffs — but I concluded my deep dive by suggesting: “The margin of error has gotten thin.” That statement proved prescient as injuries devastated this team. Washington lost 222 combined games to injury last season — and they suffered the second-most Total Points Lost to Injury according to the metrics by Sports Info Solutions. These injuries then exposed the lack of depth on the roster constructed by Peters. The Commanders had the oldest roster in the NFL last season, with an average age of 28.2 per player. What became particularly glaring was that the bench pieces were often made up of older players — so this team really didn’t benefit from getting to try out and give experience to younger players on the roster in a lost 5-12 campaign. Washington only had five draft picks last year after the aggressive trading of picks to grab “win now” veterans. This is a franchise that has none of their first round draft picks from 2019 through 2023 still on their roster — and the developmental pipeline has been overlooked. Now Peters and head coach Dan Quinn are both in the hot seat, although Peters may be given enough rope to hire one more head coach if expectations are not met this season. Maybe. It’s another year of urgency — and perhaps the immediate success Quinn enjoyed in his first season as the head coach with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels under center led to some shortsighted decisions last year. It would not be the first time that a brain trust overplayed their hand. Unfortunately, it is difficult to make confident assessments regarding the roster that returns since the barrage of injuries on both sides of the ball was so prevalent. Daniels suffered three different injuries last season that had him miss Games Three and Four, Game Eight, Games 10-13, and Games 15-17 — so not only did the injuries mount that he was playing through, but there was never a legitimate opportunity to re-establish some continuity. But this also begs a question I asked in my deep dive for this team last year: “Can Daniels develop into a dangerous passer when forced out of the pocket like (Lamar) Jackson has become — or will he continue to rely on his legs? Daniels had a below-average turnover rate last season, especially when throwing over the middle. And I still worry about his thin 6’4 frame with his 210-lb body absorbing more and more blows.” Those questions remain, with lingering concerns that Daniels may simply end up being the second coming of Robert Griffin III for this franchise. The team did get younger in the offseason, but that was almost by definition — and it came at the expense of lots of roster turnover. Quinn also made many changes with the coaching staff. After taking over the play-calling duties on defense after Week 11, Quinn let defensive coordinator Joe Whitt go and replaced him with Brian Flores protege Daronte Jones. Perhaps he will offer a shot in the arm for this defense that ranked last in the league by allowing 384.4 total Yards-Per-Game and second-to-last in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. On offense, Kliff Kingsbury “mutually parted ways” as offensive coordinator in the offseason — and Quinn promoted David Blough as his replacement. Considered a rising star in the offensive coaching ranks, the former NFL quarterback will likely bring a schematic approach similar to Ben Johnson, for whom he was an assistant with the Detroit Lions. But Blough spent most of last year as the assistant quarterbacks coach before getting promoted to quarterbacks coach in December when Tavita Prichard left the team to become the offensive coordinator at Stanford. Blough has never called the offensive plays at any level — and he was an assistant to an assistant until late last season. This is very high risk for Quinn — and if this season bottoms out, the writing was on the wall. Perhaps Daniels regains his rookie form and a reliable second target in the passing game emerges to complement Terry McLaurin — but, in the short-term in the opening weeks of the new season, I am skeptical, especially with Blough as an inexperienced play-caller. First round draft pick Sonny Styles should thrive immediately at middle linebacker — and perhaps the potential six new starters brought in through free agency come together quickly. The defense can only improve. I do take note that the Commanders have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season since Quinn became their head coach — this probably speaks to his offseason preparation on defense for the early opponents. Washington has also played 5 of their last 7 games away from home Under the Total when the Total is set in the 42.5-49 point range. Philadelphia took a step back on offense last season by generating only 311.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 22.3 Points-Per-Game. Those marks ranked 24th and 19th in the NFL, respectively. With the loss of wide receiver A.J. Brown to New England, the drama may be less, but so too is the game-breaking talent on the field when the Eagles are on offense. The Eagles defense should remain elite under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Philadelphia gave up 314.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 19.1 PPG, the fifth-fewest points in the league. The Eagles have played 13 of their last 20 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (475) and the Philadelphia Eagles (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.