Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Inter Milan (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Inter Milan reached the finals of the UEFA Champions League with a 4-3 victory against Barcelona in extra time on May 6th which pulled out a 7-6 win in the aggregate score. Paris Saint-Germain reached the finals with their 2-1 win at home against Arsenal on May 7th which secured their 3-1 aggregate score victory. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Inter Milan is unbeaten in their last six matches after a 2-0 win at Como to close out their Serie A competition last Friday. The Nerazzurri are a defense-first team with a great backline led by Benjamin Pavard and Alessandro Bastoni. They also have an outstanding goalkeeper in Yann Somomer who had +1.44 Goals Saved Above Expectation in their second-leg match against Barcelona. His .828 save percentage in Champions League matches in 2024-25 was the best for all keepers who played at least eight matches. Inter Milan did engage in some high-scoring matches in the Knockout Stages of the Champions League — but that may speak more to the aggressive natures of Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals of this tournament. The Nerazzurri had eight clean sheets in their first nine matches in the Champions League this year before the second leg of their Round of 16 contest against Feyenoord. On the road, they have resisted clean sheets in three of their last six matches in the Championship League. And while they have scored at least two goals in their last three Championship League matches on the road, they had previously not scored more than one goal away from home in five straight Championship League contests. In their last six contests in Serie A, Inter Milan has registered only 9.55 expected goals. Paris Saint-Germain has won four games in a row across all competitions after their 3-0 victory against Reims in the Coupe de France last Saturday. In their last six matches in Ligue 1 play, les Parisiens have only surrendered 5.55 expected goals. They led the French top flight by only giving up 35 goals and 36.39 expected goals. In their eight contests in the Champions League Knockout Stage matches this year, PSG registered four clean sheets. They also boast one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma. PSG scored only one goal in three of their last five road matches in the Champions League.

FINAL TAKE: Champions League finals tend to be cagey affairs with the match being played on neutral grounds under intense pressure. Given Inter Milan’s defensive counter-attacking tactics, this match will probably open as a grinder. PSG presses, but they do not want to fall behind against this veteran squad. The last six championship contests in the Champions League have seen less than 2.5 goals. Look for that trend to continue in this one. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Inter Milan (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (555) and the Indiana Pacers (556) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: New York (61-38) has won two of the last three games in this series after their 111-94 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Indiana (60-36) still leads this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Knicks’ head coach Tom Thibodeau initially thought it would be a good idea to embrace the Pacers' fast pace and run up-and-down the court with them in this series. They lost Game One in overtime by a 138-135 score. But after dropping the first two games at home in this series, Thibodeau has finally come around to the notion that he needs the Knicks cannot simply try to outscore Indiana to win this series but that his team will have to do some things on defense. He expanded his rotation by getting Delon Wright and Landry Shamet into the mix — they both have played at least 20 combined minutes in the last three contests after neither played in Game Two and Wright was on the court for just 26 seconds in Game One. Wright and Shamet are both solid contributors on the defensive end of the floor who do not offer much offensively. But Thibodeau needs them out there to not exhaust his top-seven man rotation — and he is desperate for defensive help with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns on the court together since they were getting torched with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 150.0 when playing together in the first two games of this series. Thibodeau also inserted Mitchell Robinson in the starting lineup for Josh Hart in Game Three to switch the rotations up to get more defense on the court when Brunson and Towns are playing together. The defensive adjustments continued in Game Five with the Knicks (finally) picking up on Tyrese Haliburton closer to half court to offer more harassment against him and coax him to pass the rock. Haliburton only took seven shots on Thursday with just two of them coming from behind the arc. New York is also more aggressively defending Haliburton after made shots on the offensive end of the court to stop Indiana from responding quickly by pushing the ball up the court. The Knicks held the Pacers to 40.5% shooting and just a 33.3% mark from behind the arc as they continue to find schematic answers for what Indiana wants to do with the ball in their hands. And Thibodeau seems to appreciate that a slower pace better serves his team’s interests. New York has held Indiana to 100 and 94 points in two of the last three games in this series — and two of the last three games have seen just 205 and 206 combined points scored. The Under is 3-1 in the last 4 games in this series. Thibodeau’s teams have played 8 of their 13 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series including three of the four games as head coach of the Knicks. New York made 49.4% of their shots on Thursday which was their best shooting effort since Game One of this series. But don’t underestimate this Pacers defense that ranked ninth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since January 1st through the end of the regular season. Haliburton should play better after his off-night. But Aaron Nesmith playing through an ankle injury may continue to be limited offensively after missing seven of his eighth shots from the field in Game Five. Indiana has played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total when playing a team winning 60-70% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: In the last 57 games in the NBA Conference Finals with the Total set at 216.5 or higher, 34 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (555) and the Indiana Pacers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.