Dan Kaiser: Best Bets Daily & Top Free Picks from Expert Sports Handicapper

The Florida Panthers are looking for a sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the NHL playoffs. The Panthers have allowed just seven goals in the first three games while scoring 11. Sergei Bobrovsky has been outstanding in the net with a  2.30 GAA and a .901 save percentage. Tampa has lost four straight to the Panthers. This could have been a different series if tampa could have taken game three. Instead they are in a tough spot and are trying to avoid a sweep. Florida is 7-1 over Tampa Bay in their past eight games. They have outscored Bay 21-8 in the last four games in Tampa, all wins. The Panthers have too much going for them for Tampa bay to overcome. 

Play on Florida this is a 3% play

Over their last 10 games the Panthers have a 6-3-1 record to the under, with a total of just 19 goals allowed. The Lightning has seen more than three goals scored just once in their past seven games. The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games played between the two. I an looking for a tighter game in this one as compared to game three.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play.

The Dallas Stars are in a must win situation as they travel to Sin City for game three. The Stars dropped their first two games on home ice and have their backs against the wall. During the regular season, Dallas put up 3.93 goals a game and allowed 2.83. That hasn’t played out in the playoffs as they have scored just 2.00 and have allowed 3.50. During the regular season, Vegas put up  3.21 goals and allowed 2.96, in the playoffs, they are scoring 3.50goals and giving up just 2. Vegas is playing great at both ends of the ice and I don’t see them letting up at home. Dallas has not gotten great goaltending play so far but that is also due to how well Vegas has been playing on offense. Dallas will need to come out string and try to put pressure early but I don't think it will matter. Vegas picks up the win on home ice.

Play on Vegas. This si a 3% play

Carolina won both regular-season games played on the Islanders' home ice. They also took the first game on the road in this series. New York has lost five straight regular-season games versus Carolina in their home arena. The Hurricanes are 7-3-1 in the last 10 against the Islanders. The Hurricanes finished the season by winning seven of their last nine games overall and four of five on the road. New York has failed to score more than two goals against the Carolina defense in two of the first three games of this series. The Islanders had a chance to win Game 2 but blew a three-goal lead and now they are on the verge of being swept.  Carolina is the better team and I don’t feel it matters who the islander put in net. 

Play on Carolina minus 1.5 goals. This is a free play.

The Boston Red Sox play host to the Chicago Cubs on Saturday at Fenway Park. Chicago will likely go with Ben Brown in this game while Boston will counter with Josh Winckowski on the mound. Chicago took game one and has won four in a row.  They are getting it done at the plate and on the mound. Brown has appeared in six games and made two starts this season. He has posted a 3.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19.1 innings. He has given up two runs with 17 Ks over his last 17.2 IP.  Boston has lost two in a row and like the Cubs they are dealing with injuries. Winckowski served as an opener in his last start going 3.1 innings. If that is the case today, he will turn it over to a bullpen that has a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 101 strikeouts. The Cubs . are just 7-6 on the road this season but have won five of their last six away games. The Red Sox are just 3-7 at home this season. The Cubs are the better team right now and Boston starter has allowed 14 runs on 18 hits in just 11.0 combined innings over his last six appearances. The Cubs just find ways to get it done at the plate.

Play on Chicago. This is a 3% play.

The Washington Nationals face the Miami Marlins in the second game of their four game series.  The Nationals will send Mitchell Parker to the mound. He is  2-0 this season with a  1.50 ERA, the Marlins will go with Edward Cabrera on the mound. He is 1-0 this season with a 3.27 ERA.

Miami is 8-2 in its last 10 games against Washington. The Marlins have won two straight games Parker has started. Washington is averaging 3.50 runs per game. Marlins have not won a series this season. Miami is putting up 3.38 runs per game. The Nationals have won three of their last five road games and have scored 16 runs in their last four road games. Cabrera gave up five runs in his last two starts against the Nationals. Miami has the seventh-worst bullpen in the league. The Marlins have lost four of their last five games and three of their last four home games. The nats have the better pitcher, bullpen and even though their offense is not great, they have the edge there also. Take the nats at + money.

Play on Miani. This is a 3% play

The Oklahoma City Thunder go on the road to take on the New Orleans Pelicans. The Thunder have won the first two games of the series. The Thunder are putting up 109 points per game in the series and shooting nearly 51% from the field and 31% from 3-point range. They are giving up just 92 points per game and holding the Pelicans to just 41% shooting overall. The New Orleans Pelicans nearly stole game one but are now in a must win situation and are still without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans are scoring just 92 points per game in the series and are shooting 41% from the field overall. Without Williamson, the Pelicans lack scoring. Ingram has been a disappointment in Williamson’s absence and must step up if the Pelicans are going to win.  The Thunder were 24-17 on the road this season while the Pels were just 21-20 at home.  New Orleans isn’t the same team without Williamson and the on the floor and the Thunder have been playing great since the first half of game one. The Pels are in a must win game but I don’t feel they have enough to get the job done.

Play on OKC. This is a 3% play

The Orlando Magic will look to even their series with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is putting up 112.3 points per game, but have been held to less than a hundred points in the first three games of this series. On the defensive end, they are giving up 109.7 points per game this season. Orlando put up 110 points per game this season and on the defensive end, they are giving up 107.9 points per game. The Orlando defense held the Cavs under 100 points for the third straight game of the series and their offense finally showed up at home.  They were once again able to keep the Cavs under their average from deep but what was more important in game three was that the Magic was able to hold their own on the glass. By controlling the glass, they were able to keep the Cavs from getting easy points. I am not looking for an easy win but I do expect the magic to win this game.

Play on Orlando. This is a 3% play