Brian Bitler

ECU minus the points on Friday is a nice little spot.

USF’s 6-2 record looks solid, but their offense has been pretty average all year and they’re walking into a loud Friday night at Dowdy-Ficklen (Paint It Black / Night of the Boneyard). Home field means more in these low-scoring games, and the total is sitting right around 39.5 for a reason.

ECU just played a clean defensive game against Temple and has Mitch Griffis back starting with a real run game. USF also has some QB questions after Van Buren got banged up last week and the staff is being cagey about who starts. In a rock fight, I’ll take the home team getting the crowd and the more settled situation, especially when the number is only 2.5.

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I’m taking New Orleans +4.5 at home tonight against Minnesota.

The Pelicans have won four straight and are averaging over 121 points per game. Minnesota is the better team on paper, but they’re without Anthony Edwards, and this is only a 4.5-point spread in New Orleans. The Pelicans have been competitive as underdogs and are playing with more consistency on both ends. Home floor, recent form, and a short number against a shorthanded opponent give this a clear edge.

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Yeah, I’m taking the Cavs +2.5 tonight at home.

Philly’s been rolling at 8-1 and they’ve got the star power with LeBron, Maxey, Brown and Embiid, but this is still only a 2.5-point spread in Cleveland. The Cavs have been scoring fine, they’re better at home, and these games between them have stayed close. Last time they played it was a one-possession type finish after a big comeback.

I just don’t see Philly running away with it on the road here. Home dog with a number this small feels like the right side. Cavs keep it tight.

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Yeah, North Dakota State plus the points at San Francisco looks pretty good to me. San Francisco’s the better team and should win at home, but 9.5 feels like a lot against this NDSU group. These guys went 27-8 last year, won the Summit League, and made the tournament. They’re not some random mid-major that just folds. They opened with a 90-59 win over Crookston, then got smoked 105-64 at Saint Mary’s. That looks bad on paper, but Saint Mary’s is a real team that can score. It doesn’t suddenly make NDSU trash.

San Francisco’s 1-0 after a 76-62 win over Radford — fine, but nothing special. The line’s moved from around 7.5 all the way to 9.5, which feels like people overreacting to that Saint Mary’s result more than anything. A lot of the projections have this landing somewhere in the 77-68 range, which would still cover. NDSU’s usually pretty good about hanging around and covering when people write them off.

San Francisco gets the win. NDSU just needs to stick around and not get run off the floor. 

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St. Thomas plus the points is my play.

Minnesota should win this at The Barn, but 14.5 feels oversized against a real mid-major team in a game that actually matters to them. This is the first meeting in 92 years between two schools three miles apart, and St. Thomas has been waiting for this stage. They’re coming off an efficient 87-78 road win and went 24-10 last year while scoring 81+ per game and shooting over 50%. Minnesota’s 85-50 opener looked good against a North Dakota team that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat. The line has already moved a point in the Tommies’ direction, and most projections have Minnesota winning by right around the number. St. Thomas doesn’t need to pull the upset — they just need to stick around, hit some threes, and make the Gophers work in front of a fired-up crowd.

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TCU plus the points at Arizona on Friday night is a strong spot.

Arizona’s ranked and coming off a five-game win streak before that loss at Texas Tech, but TCU’s defense is the real deal here. They’re giving up just 14.1 points a game — best in the Big 12 and right up there nationally. No team has scored more than 24 on them all year. That’s the kind of unit that keeps you in every game, even on the road.

Arizona can sling it with Fifita, but they’ve been uneven on the ground and just got gashed for 300+ rushing yards at Texas Tech. TCU’s defense travels well enough, and late Friday night in the desert isn’t always a picnic for the home team either. The number’s been sitting around 8.5–9.5 in spots, so +7.5 gives you a little more room than the market’s been offering.

TCU’s offense isn’t pretty, but they don’t need to be. If their defense does what it’s been doing all season, this stays competitive and the points come into play.

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