Big Al McMordie Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins won one of the more miraculous games in NFL history, ranking right up there with Pittsburgh's Immaculate Reception (1972) vs. Oakland, and last season's Playoff win by the Vikings over the Saints, when Case Keenum connected with Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard TD pass on the game's final play.  Of course, everyone remembers those historic plays, but it's also important to remember what happened to those teams the next week.  The Steelers, of course, lost to the Dolphins in the AFC Championship game, while Minnesota was blown out by the Eagles in last year's NFC Title game.  Miami's win did place it back in the playoff hunt for this season, but their euphoria should be short-lived, as I expect Minnesota to rout them this afternoon.  Since 1980, NFL road teams in non-division games have cashed just 30% off division upset wins when they were a 6-point (or greater) underdog in that upset win.  Even worse:  if our play-against team (here, Miami) owned a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, then our negative 30% ATS system crashes to 16% ATS since 1980.  This will be a blowout.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  NFL Non-Division Game of the Month.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds minus the points over Cleveland State.  Illinois State is just 6-5, but has played a relatively tough schedule thus far.  In their last three home games, they invited teams like BYU (a 92-89 upset win), San Diego State (75-65 loss) and Mississippi (81-74 loss) to Redbird Arena, and were underdogs in all three games.  Sandwiched in between the SDSU and Ole Miss games was a road game at Illinois Chicago, which they also lost (as a 2-point underdog).  So, yes, the Redbirds are on a 3-game losing streak, but they're also 4-4 in their last eight games, even though they were an underdog in ALL 7 GAMES that had a point spread on it (one game was against a Division II school, and non-lined).  Thus, today will be the first time that Illinois State has been a favorite since it played Chicago State in its 3rd game of the season, and just its 3rd game of 12, overall.  The Redbirds are 20-10 ATS off back to back point spread defeats, and they also fall into one of my favorite NCAA systems, which is 83-32 ATS since 1990, which plays on certain teams off 3+ ATS losses.  Take Illinois State.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Arizona Coyotes.  These two teams met in Arizona in November, and the Coyotes won, in overtime, 4-3, even though they were out-shot, 48-21!  Antii Raanta, however, was spectacular for Arizona, with 45 saves, and his team pulled off the upset.  Unfortunately for the Coyotes, Raanta landed on the Injured Reserve 10 days ago with a lower body injury, and remains sidelined.  Rookie Adin Hill is now between the pipes, and has made six starts.  He was great in his first three (2 goals in 89 shots), but poor in his last three (12 goals in 83 shots).  No team in the NHL has been as streaky as the Coyotes lately.  The team that is often a doormat for the rest of the league had a four game win streak between November 27 and December 4 (they also had a five-game win streak in late October).  The problem with this latest run of success is that it was sandwiched between two four-game losing streaks, the latter of which was broken when the Coyotes went into New York and upset the Rangers, 4-3 in OT, on Friday night.   The 'Canes on the other hand, lost their third straight that same night in a home thriller.  For 65 minutes, Carolina held the Champion Capitals to a 5-5 draw and only lost when the visitors got one by goalie Scott Darling in the shoot-out.  There's no shame in picking up a point on a night when Alex Ovechkin scores a hat trick and anything close to Friday's performance should yield a win for the home team in this Sunday matinee in Raleigh.  The Coyotes are 28-58 in their last 86 road games vs. teams with a losing home record, 1-10 off an overtime win, and 52-91 (minus 21 games on the money line) in non-conference games.  Take the 'Canes.  NHL Non-Division Game of the Month!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.