Big Al McMordie Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins.  After a promising 2018 campaign -- his third in the Majors -- in which he won 11 of 24 starts, expectations were pretty high for Phillies' RHP Zach Eflin coming into 2019.  So far it's been a lost season for the 25-year-old who has managed a record of just 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 25 appearances (21 starts).  But Eflin also knows that if he turns it around the rest of the way and helps his team get to the post-season, it will erase everything he's done up to this point.  Tonight would be a great time to get started with that turnaround as Eflin faces the 46-81 Marlins for the fourth time this season.  After a disastrous July (0-4 with an 11.88 ERA) Eflin was relegated to the bullpen to start August and has responded nicely.  Eflin's pitched better this month and deserves another starting shot especially in light of the recent news that Jake Arrieta has been lost for the season (elbow).  The Marlins won a shootout here in Miami last night, but they are still just 19-42 in their last 61 games vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Phillies.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers.  After being mired in mediocre pitching numbers for years -- a roughly .500 record with ERAs around five runs -- Twins RH Kyle Gibson is finally having a productive campaign in his seventh season.  Gibson is 11-6 (.647) with a 4.40 ERA and a career-best 2.96 K:BB ratio in 26 games (25 starts) covering 139 innings.  Although Gibson's ERA is higher here at home than it is on the road, the 31-year-old has a substantially better record at Target Field (7-3) than he does when pitching elsewhere (4-3).  The Tigers will go with the well-traveled RH Edwin Jackson.  The 17-year veteran is in his second stint with the Tigers (he pitched for Detroit in 2009) and it's pretty clear at this point that the 35-year-old's best years are well behind him.  In 11 games (eight starts) in 2019 with Toronto and Detroit, Jackson is 3-6 with an 8.46 ERA in just under 45 innings.  The Twins are 22-5 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 27 as a favorite of -200 or more.  Take Minnesota.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves.  With all of the bad pitching going around the league these days (both starters and relievers), it's good to see an old fashioned extra-innings pitching duel for a change.  The Braves and Mets played just such a game on Friday night, with the Braves finally prevailing in extra innings.  They will reload tonight and again it will be with a couple of pretty good pitchers going to the mound in the Mets' RH Zach Wheeler and the Braves' LH Max Fried.  Wheeler has been pretty consistent all season, although he's lowered his ERA more than a half-run since the middle of June (from a high of 4.94 to its current 4.40).  But Wheeler has definitely preferred pitching here at Citi Field this season, as in 11 home starts, he is 5-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 70 2/3 innings vs. 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in just under 79 innings on the road.  The Mets are 10-2 (+7 games on the money line) in Wheeler's last 12 starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher.  And they are 18-7 (+12 games on the money line) in his last 25 second-half starts.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins.  After a promising 2018 campaign -- his third in the Majors -- in which he won 11 of 24 starts, expectations were pretty high for Phillies' RHP Zach Eflin coming into 2019.  So far it's been a lost season for the 25-year-old who has managed a record of just 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 25 appearances (21 starts).  But Eflin also knows that if he turns it around the rest of the way and helps his team get to the post-season, it will erase everything he's done up to this point.  Tonight would be a great time to get started with that turnaround as Eflin faces the 46-81 Marlins for the fourth time this season.  After a disastrous July (0-4 with an 11.88 ERA) Eflin was relegated to the bullpen to start August and has responded nicely.  Eflin's pitched better this month and deserves another starting shot especially in light of the recent news that Jake Arrieta has been lost for the season (elbow).  The Marlins won a shootout here in Miami last night, but they are still just 19-42 in their last 61 games vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Phillies.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Yankees.  The Dodgers were blown out, 10-2, last night.  And that was the first time all season they lost at home with Hyun Jin Ryu on the mound.  Today, they'll look to bounce back with Tony Gonsolin getting the start opposite CC Sabathia.  And we'll go against the Yankee southpaw, as Sabathia has an 11.92 ERA in his last three starts (all New York losses).  Even worse for New York:  it's 4-17 its last 21 as road underdogs of +150 or less, while the Dodgers are 13-1 in daytime home games, and 51-17 overall at home this season.  Take the Dodgers.