Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing LA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the Angels' chances of winning this one "outright," in my opinion, this one has a higher than normal likelihood of resulting in close game. That said, I'm happy to have an extra +1.5 runs to work with. Note that Bassitt's last start was a 1-run game and that Sandoval's last start was also a 1-run game. When these two opposed each other twice back in the spring, Oakland won both games. Sandoval is in much better form now than he was then though. Last time out, he struck out 13 batters while allowing a single run, through 8 2/3 innings. He's gone at least seven innings in three straight starts and he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 of 12. (Four in the other.) Of those 12 games, he allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of them. That makes it tough to win by more than a run. The Angels still have more home wins (29) than Oakland has road wins (28). Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST the "run line cover." 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both these teams have arguably underachieved. The Twins have been out of the playoff race for some time. The Cardinals are still mathematically alive but reality is setting in. Barring a miracle, they won't be going to the playoffs either. That said, the Twins should have a significant edge on the mound for tonight's opener. Minnesota hasn't provided Berrios with much run support lately but he should get some this evening. Berrios has a dominant 0.75 WHIP his past three starts but an 0-2 record to show for it. LeBlanc, on the other hand, has a 1.917 WHIP his past three starts. That means that LeBlanc is allowing more than 2 1/2 times (2.556) as many baserunners as Berrios, over his past three outings. Needless to say, that's a big difference. Berrios is averaging 6 2/3 innings over those three starts, while LeBlanc is averaging four. It should also be noted that Berrios is 27 years old while LeBlanc is 36. These two opposed each other back in 2019 and it didn't go well for LeBlanc, who was pitching for Seattle at the time. In fact, LeBlanc gave up four HR's in 2 2/3 innings and the Twins won 18-4. In much better current form, expect Berrios to get the better of LeBlanc again tonight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While the price is obviously a little steep, this one's a mismatch. With a 10-3 record and a 1.91 ERA, Lynn has been getting it done all year. He's not slowing down either as he's 2-0 with a dominant 1.42 ERA his past three. On the other hand, Mejia is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA his past three. He served up three HR's in his last start alone. That's the fourth straight game that he's been taken deep, at least once. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Sox have been tough when coming off a loss. While still not quite mathematically elminated from playoff contention, Cleveland essentially waved the white flag by trading Cesar Hernandez to the Sox yesterday. Chicago wins this one big.