Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Anytime that I take an extra +1.5 runs with a team, I have to also like that team's chances of winning outright. Thats absolutely the case here. After getting embarrassed 11-0 yesterday, the Padres are going to be in an angry mood, determined to bounce back. Eovaldi returned to the rotation last week and it didn't go well. In just two innings, he allowed five earned runs, walking three times as many batters as he struck out. Lamet, on the other hand, has a stellar 2.50 ERA in three August starts. Over that 18-inning span, he's recorded an impressive 25 K's. Lamet missed all of last season and struggled when he first came back. However, you can see that he's throwing the ball very well now based on his August numbers. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Sox have struggled against NL teams this season. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one, Lamet and the Padres coming away with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on Arsenal/Liverpool UNDER the total. There are indeed some talented offensive players in this one. That said, I feel that the O/U line will still prove to be too high. Liverpool was the stingiest team in the entire Prem. League last season, allowing just 22 goals through 38 matches. This season, through two games, Liverpool has conceded two goals. Arsenal, meanwhile has allowed just a single goal, through its first two matches, winning 2-1 and 1-0. I see goals being harder to come by than most will be expecting, the teams combining for less than four. 

I'm playing on CHELSEA. Chelsea steps down in class and will be determined to take care of business. Norwich provides the perfect opportunity. The Canaries may be playing at home but they haven't beaten Chelsea in their last seven tries here. The Canaries are also just 1-10-4 their last 15 home games against established top-6 teams, in Prem. League play. Overall, Chelsea is undefeated in its last 15 matches, in all competitions, against Norwich. Chelsea hasn't had a season where it failed to win any of its three opening games since way back in the late 1990s. Its not happening here. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. While these rivals haven't met since 2013, I expect the Gators to have a significant advantage in the season opener at Orlando. The Hurricanes would love to get their 'new era' off to a winning start and beating Florida would sure be a great way to do it. Thats asking an awful lot though. Consider that Miami has a new coach, a new offensive coordinator and a ton of new players. The Gators, on the other hand, are off a 10-win season under Dan Mullen. The Gators are looking to build off that and have the pieces in place to do so. They know if they can beat Georgia, that the sky's the limit for them. It all starts here, however. Speaking of Mullen, don't forget that he was passed over for the Miami coaching job. Twice, in fact. Whatever he may say, winning big is going to feel extra special. Expect the Gators, 6-2 ATS their last eight non-conf games, to win by double-digits.