ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Golden State Warriors – 7:30 PM ET - We are curious to see if Jayson Tatum has anything special planned for the Warriors and head coach Steve Kerr. There is some mystery surrounding Tatum’s lack of playing time in the Olympics and he could take it out on Kerr tonight. Boston had the 3rd highest scoring differential in the NBA at +14PPG and are winning at home by +17PPG. Golden State has an average +/- of +17.3PPG overall for the season. The Warriors though have played a very soft schedule and only one of their wins has come against a team with an above .500 record, the Rockets at 4-3. Golden State’s other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 15-29 SU record. Boston has at least two quality wins on their resume, and both were by double-digits at home over the Bucks and Knicks. Last season when the Celtics hosted the Warriors, they blew them out of the building with a 140-88 win.

#107 ASA PLAY ON Northern Illinois -117 over Western Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with WMU favored by 1 and has flipped to NIU as a small favorite.  We agree with the move as the Huskies are the better team in this match up despite WMU having the better overall record (5-3 for WMU to 4-4 for NIU).  Western Michigan sits a top the MAC with a perfect 4-0 record.  However their wins have come vs Kent, Buffalo, Akron, and Ball State which are the 4 lowest rated teams in the MAC and all ranked 115th or lower nationally in most power ratings including ours.  Northern Illinois is 1-3 in league play (yet favored on the road here vs an undefeated MAC team) but they have already played 2 of the top 3 teams in the conference beating Bowling Green and losing a tight game vs Toledo (13-6 final score) and they outgained the Rockets by more than 100 yards in that loss.  Remember, this NIU team won @ Notre Dame earlier this year which is the only loss for the Irish.  We’re getting a huge defensive edge with the Huskies here as they rank 7th nationally in total defense and 12th in YPP allowed while WMU ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats.  NIU is one of the top rushing teams in the nation (206 YPG rushing – 22nd nationally) and they should control the line of scrimmage here vs a Western Michigan stop unit that ranks 102nd defending the run.  For the full season Northern has faced a slight better strength of schedule but still has a big advantage in key stats with a +122 YPG and +0.6 YPP compared to -22 YPG and +0.3 YPP for the Broncos.  We’ll call for Northern Illinois to get the road win on Wednesday night.