Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

Neither one of these teams is as good or as a bad as they have looked so far this season. No the Fins offence is not as bad as it seemed early on , as was evident when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was put under center last week , almost bringing his team back from a 14 point deficit. With that said, Im expecting Miami to do more offensive damage than than the linesmakers expect this week behind the arm and mind of one of the leagues most under rated QBs. Meanwhile, Buffalo in its usually methodical way will also land some blows in a game I have pegged to eclipse this artificially low total that is based almost solely on recency bias of unders by both sides. Note: Miami has allowed an average of 36 ppg this season!

BUFFALO is 10-2 OVER  vs. terrible ball control teams, 28  or lessminutes TOP, 16 or less FD's per game with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored.

 Buffalo has gone over the L/7 times its has been made a 8 point or more favortie. 

Dolphins have gone over 5 straight times  after a non conference home game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-12  OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 41-13 OVER L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Things are not good in Dallas right now as Americas team has lost three straight games, but are still being made favs here at home vs a Eagles side that has won 2 of their L3 games overall. This game is important to both sides, and Im betting it will be a hard fought battle that makes getting points a solid investment opportunity.  It must be noted that HC Garrett has covered just 5 of 19 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of DALLAS.The Dallas Cowboys, are also just 1-18-1 ATS as home favorites when coming off a SU and ATS loss.

The Cowboys when made  home favorites  have allowed road underdogs to cash at a  34-19-1 ATS  clip during the L/10 seasons for  a 75% conversion rate .

Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in October.Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Road team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Raiders have back to back road underdog wins and 3 straight wins overall, and proving that they maybe better than many expected. It must be noted that both games easily eclipsed the total, and they have gone over in 3 straight games overall.  Meanwhile, Green Bay is off a short week after playing a Monday night game at Lambeau and their D maybe a little tired and vulnerable forcing Aaron Rodgers to air it out more than might be expected this Sunday . Note: NFC chalk off a Monday Night division game like the Packers ... have gone 19-2-1 OVER dating back 8 seasons, including a 100% perfect 9-0 OVER when the Total is north of 45 points. Also GREEN BAY is 16-2 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg going on the board.

Im projecting for both teams to score 20+ points here tonight. OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.6 ppg. GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

This series has gone over 5 straight times average Total of : 44.7  and the  average combined score clicking in at 51.4 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Lets not fool ourselves here , Washington is a horrendous team. However, travelling from west to east like the 49ers are here today and playing out of your time zone can also cause some havoc with a players body, and  mind set and even  preparedness. After being emotionally charged up for their last game , a win vs division rival the LA Rams Im expecting an emotional let down situation to concur with their east coast travel plans. With that said , Im betting on the 5-0 Niners to come out flat here and for the Skins to find a ugly way to cover. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 10-23 ATS L/33 in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less). 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 5-24  ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

Bills QB Josh Allen(Concussion protocol) has found ways to win despite throwing seven interceptions and losing several fumbles. He is truly a over rated QB at this point in his career. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are changing quarterbacks and last week, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick almost pulled off a miraculous comeback.  Look for Fitzmagic to be the difference maker here today vs a solid but vulnerable D, that Its use will be over looking this current opponent. 

BUFFALO is 14-28 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

The Bills have lost the last two times they've been favored by 15 1/2 or more points. Buffalo lost 24-17 to the New York Jets on Dec. 6, 1992, and 16-13 at Indianapolis the previous week.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, winless on the season are 25-6 ATS L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

Things are not going the Atlanta Falcons way so far this season, as was evident last week when they out yarded and out played Arizona and still found a way to lose a one point 34-33 road tilt. Now the Falcons are extremely desperate to get a win here at home this week vs a struggling Rams side on a 3 game losing streak and Im betting take advantage of downtrodden team that is reeling out of control. Note:Super Bowl loser like the Rams as a non-division road chalk are just  (28-51-5 ATS) .  The Falcons are 4-0/SU/ATS L/4 in this series and get the nod again to get us the cover. 

ATLANTA is 21-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.LA RAMS is 14-28 ATS  L/42 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a good offensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 39-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover