Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

These two teams the visiting Detroit Red Wing and the their hosts the NY Islanders will square off for the second straight Saturday  at the Nassau Coliseum. When these teams met last week , the Isles won 3-2. The Islanders behind HC Barry Trotz have taken a conservative approach using transition for their scoring chances for much of this season and have recently gone under 8 of their L/9 games. I expect more of the same conservative and disciplined hockey tonight  vs a Detroit team that is in a bit of a offensive funk of late scoring 3 goals or less in their L/4 games and a score that remains on the low side of the total.

NY ISLANDERS are 10-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.DETROIT is 28-16 UNDER (+9.3 Units) in road games against good starting goalies - saving 91.5%  or more of shots  like the Isles Greiss against over the last 2 seasons.

NHL Road teams against the total (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival, extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 60-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Sooners enter this game against USC with a 8-1 start all out of conference wins, using defence rather than offence to get the job sone. The Sooners are coming off one of their best defensive performances in recent seasons , holding Wichita State to 48 points on 15-of-62 (.242) shooting their last time out, and has held its opponent to 60 or fewer points four of its last six games and are well prepared to face the Trojans are with momentum on their sides. Oklahoma’s defense has been especially dominate late in the game. In OU’s eight victories, its opposition are shooting a combined 30.1 percent (20.5 percent from 3)  in the last 15 minutes of the game, giving me confidence in the Sooners ability to finish this tilt strong and get us the cover   .The Sooners are 5-0 against Pac-12 opponents during the Lon Kruger era and they get the nod again and im more importantly the cover.

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS  as a favorite this season with he point diff clicking in at 15.8 ppg this season.

HC Enfield is 1-8 ATS   in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of US and is 10-21 ATS   when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more ) as the coach of USC with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.6 ppg. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

Boston (18-10) has won eight straight, including a 129-108 victory over Atlanta on Friday night and enter this game against their hosts the Pistons with a full head of steam, and despite of a heavy schedule still lookalike very viable options to cover vs a team they matchup well against. Note: NBA Favorites SU (BOSTON) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are good long term  bets going 43-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average point differential clicking in at 10.5 ppg making this a viable cover situation for the Celtics .

BOSTON is  also 12-1 ATS  off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

The Celtics have already beaten the Pistons twice this season. They smashed them  at Little Caesars Arena 109-89 on Oct. 27, then beat them in Boston 108-105 three nights later. Note: The Pistons are just 0-6 ATS L/6 vs the Celtics with same season double  revenge . 

DETROIT is 2-12 ATS in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 4 ppg. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

The Clippers have struggled to score consistently of late and have scored 99 points or less in 4 of their L/5 games. Im betting their offensive woes will continue tonight vs a Thunder team  that ranks 5th in defensive efficiency.  This will translate in a much lower scoring tilt than the lines makers estimate.OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 UNDER  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 203.2 pig scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.7 ppg and is 54-31 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 3 season s with a combined average of 211.9 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 47-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

at Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN

On Saturday, Butler (7-2) takes on No. 25 Indiana (8-2) in the Crossroads Classic.

This seasons Indiana team is much better than last years team and have already notched 4 top 50 kenpom victories. They have three straight victories over quality competition, and have a lot to prove here, on a national stage and Im betting they're up to it. Im also betting the difference will come at the charity stripe. Hey I know the Hoosiers have been highly inconsistent with their Its , but  they still own a top-80 free throw rate despite making just 63.6 percent of their freebies. Meanwhile, Butler is ranked in the 260s in both offensive and defensive free throw rate. Look for Indiana to convert a fairly high percentage of the free throws and snatch a superior advantage at the charity stripe.

BUTLER is 1-8 ATS  in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons and  is 4-12 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better) over the last 2 seasons.

 Butler's  had an explosive performance at home last time out, with 95-68 rout of visiting Northern Illinois on Dec. 8. , but a regression should be expected bossed on recent top their efforts  as they are 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.BUTLER is  also 0-6 ATS in road games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons and is 0-8 ATS  in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

CBB  underdog vs. the money line (BUTLER) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 4-42 L/5 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

at T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, NV

After losing  to No. 24 Houston in its last outing, the LSU has to adjust to a aa different style of play here tonight  vs St.Mary's.(Saint Mary’s) runs a European-style offense, as they use alot of guard screen action, with a lot of different cutting actions. Im betting this poses some problem for the Tigers.Ford, the Gaels’ leading scorer at 22.5 points per game, is hitting 51.5 percent from the field and makes 44.0 percent of his shots from beyond the 3-point arc and will be key here.As a team, Saint Mary’s is connecting on 49.7 of its field-goal attempts and shoots 39.1 percent from 3-point range.  Bottom line, this is a tough turnaround situation for LSU after playing Houston, and a slow start here could doom them here, or at least give us a very viable opportunity for us to get a cover here. 

Play on St.Marys to cover 

Eastern Illinois currently in top form looks to win its third straight game as the Panthers visit Bradley. The Braves 7-3 might have a winning record, but Im not overly impressed by them , and according to my projections are being over rated by the linesmakers here on the opening line.  Bradley stopped a two game losing streak to Arkansas LR last time out, but had to come from behind to do it. Note: BRADLEY is 6-18 ATS after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half and  is just  3-11 ATS on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Eastern Illinois to cover 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are  known as an explosive offensive dynamo with hot 3 point shooters . They can really rack points up in a hurry, but their D, is not to be underestimated ranking 25th in adjusted efficiency ratings. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is a physical tough rebounding team that leave opponents bruised  and battered after meeting them.  Their D is what stands out as extraordinary. No team has scored more than 65 points on the Bearcats in their 9 games, allowing opponents to a just 56.4 ppg. Both teams have not faced many strong teams.

Cincinnati did play Ohio State in their opener and  lost 64-56.Cincinnati's  two most notable victories  are against Ole Miss (59th in adjusted efficiency margin) and Xavier (60th), with the rest of their wins coming against teams outside the top 100. Meanwhile, Miss State has not faced much better competition, ranking 226th in strength of schedule by KenPom’s estimations. Last season when these programs met, they're were some different faces in the lineup, but the Bearcats won that game 65-50 at home ,and dealt well with the Bulldogs run and gun style of play . What Im betting on here today is that , this will be a physical affair, and that it will be won in the trenches ( under the basket, and in the paint and at the charity stripe. That is where the Bearcats have a slight edge according to my projections and get my backing here to cover the number. Its difficult to win on the road at an SEC school, but the Bearcats should throw a scare into the Bulldogs. Win or lose here , Im betting this score is close enough for the points to be golden.

Take the points with Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 

The Texans were on a 9 game win streak heading into last week, and then lost . NFL teams that have won 9 in row in the past and  had their win streak abruptly end have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 followups.  I know  the Jets do not inspire bettors, but with QB Sam Darnold healthy again, and off a win last week, I expect a confident top tier effort from home team today. 

Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

exans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 15.Texans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December.

HOUSTON is 9-21 ATS L/30in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 350or more yards/game in the second half of the season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. 

The underdog has covered the L/4 meetings. NYJ are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

 CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

I was little surprised at how this line opened, so I looked as deep  into this bowl game, and found no key injuries or news that would effect it. Georgia Southern is a very good team and own a 9-3 record compared to Eastern Michigan’s 7-5 recored. Yes, Eastern Michigan is a tough under rated team, but despite of being competitive don't have a killer instinct and consistently find ways to lose close games. Meanwhile,  Georgia Southern should have more of their fans here than  E.Michigan, because of the proximity of the location of this football game, and thus have more support in what will likely be a mostly empty stadium. Bottom line:

Georgia Southern is pound the ground type of offence , ranked 9th in the nation ( rush offence ) 260.8 ypg and  have an advantage vs E.Michigans, 93rd ranked rush D that allows an average   4.43 ypc, and 192.9 ypg. The Southern Eagles get my support here on a short line. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover