Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

Pittsburgh (74-81) rallied from a 9-0 deficit on Saturday, putting up 13 consecutive runs from the fourth into the eighth inning in a wild, 13-12 final and have momentum coming into this tilt in the spoilers role. Note:  Reds starter Brandon Williamson (4-5, 4.56 ERA) will start Sunday . The rookie left-hander has not posted a win since striking out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Miami on Aug. 7 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today.

CINCINNATI is 0-8  against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season. 

CINCINNATI is 0-6  against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

 is 1-8  against the money line in home games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season.

CINCINNATI is 1-10 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse this season. 

MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 10 runs or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less are 17-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

Play on Pirates to win

After yesterdays 13-12 slugfest Im betting on immediate offensive regression here in a game with huge post season implications for the Reds. CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER  after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs over the last 2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 21-8 UNDER  as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

MLB Road teams where the total is 10 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a winning team are 55-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play under

I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat,    This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents   On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. 

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they    do go  against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER   when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

The Patriots have beaten the Jets 14 straight times  and after going down 0-2 already are desperate for a win , which is unfortunate for QB  Zach Wilson and his NY Jets. Considering  Bill Belichick 18-3 SU L/21  in games when coming off back to back losses Im betting the Pats winning streak against the Jets remains intact. Also it must be noted without Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets they will have major problems moving the ball. 

Play on New England to win

Bears are not a respected team, and after 12 straight losses are a side that is not getting much respect from the linesmakers against what is obviously a far superior side the KC Chiefs. The Bears are not expected to be competitive this week, but I think few are considering that the Chiefs may not be very motivated while the opposite will hold true for a Bears group playing loose and with nothing to lose. With that said Im willing to take the DD point spread in complete contrarian action. KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Bears have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to KC. 

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover

Im not buying in on a Seattle resurgence,  and this week against Carolina Im betting on an emotional letdown scenario to hamper the home side. Last week the Seahawks, grabbed a overtime victory against the  Detroit Lions in a heart pumping affair.  Meanwhile,  the Panthers were edged out by a FG  at  home against  the New Orleans Saints in prime time  Monday night action. I myself see major upward momentum and confidence building in Carolina, Note:  Seahawks are 0-4 ATS  L4  vs the NFC South,  

Also I know Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft in April, is banged up and  didn't participate in Wednesday's walk-through practice because of an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Seahawks (1-1) But Veteran Andy Dalton is a more than capable starter for the Panthers and could easily make the Panthers offense more cohesive.

SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 11-39 ATS since 1983 for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover

Houston has owned the Jags in previous  meetings here in Jacksonville Florida winning   15 of their L/18 visits here  SU and have cashed  5 of their L/6  SU/ATS as a underdog in this series overall.  I know  Houston has lost both their games so far this season, but they did win the stats war in both games and must not be underestimated in their ability to get the job done here again. I know The Jags  smashed the host Texans 31-3 in Week 17 of last season to end a nine-game losing streak against Houston, but now with big time revenge on board and the desperation of needing a victory Im betting on a big time effort from the visitors. 

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has never won at home as a NFL favorite going 0-4 ATS while losing 3 of 4 SU. It must also be noted that  Jacksonville is  1-14 ATS as a favorite if they  were a underdog in their last game. JACKSONVILLE is 22-38 ATS L/60 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Texans to cover 

Miami has started their season at 2-0 while their opponents the Denver Broncos  have lost their first two games but by a combined 3 points. Denver has consistently been competitive but just cant get over the hump for a W, but when getting points must respected from. a ATS perspective. Denver has lost 9 straight games where it had the lead at half time. Quote "As we've learned the past few years, almost every game is one score -- seven points, three points," Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III said.  Quote "We need to finish those games 'cause we've lost too many over the past four years that I've been here." end quote. Today Im betting new HC Sean Payton finds a way to stay in this game here in Miami against a Fins side, that is coming home after two hard fought affairs, vs the Chargers and Patriots and could easily be in a emotional letdown situation this week. Its not an easy proposition to keep your energy levels up as a team for three straight games in the ultra physical NFL. Note: HC Payton  24-6-2 ATS in his NFL career against sides  coming off a victory.

MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Play on Denver Broncos to cover