Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

WNBA Playoffs - First Round

Both these teams can light up the scoreboard quickly, but Im betting on a physical play off affair that favours this contest staying on the low side of the number. 

PHOENIX is 6-0 UNDER  in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 154.3 ppg. PHOENIX is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.3 ppg.

PHOENIX is 6-0 UNDER in home games after a game where a team made 45% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 147.3 ppg going on the board.

DALLAS is 8-2 UNDER  after allowing 80 points or more in 3 straight games this season with a combined average of 170.3 ppg scored.

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (PHOENIX) - excellent free throw shooting team (80% or better ) against a good free throw shooting team (76-80%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 42% or less of their shots are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

DANIEL PONCEDELEON (R) vs. HYUN-JIN RYU (L)

After  missing three months with a strained groin, Ryu (3-0, 1.77)the Dodgers starter tonight vs the Cards showed us all  how good he can be when healthy with six scoreless innings against the Giants on Wednesday. He owns an extremely solid 0.92 WHIP in three career games against the Cardinals and gets my support here tonight. 

Dodgers are 8-2 in Ryus last 10 home starts. 

Poncedeleon is being inserted into  the rotation in place of Luke Weaver, who has been moved to the bullpen after losing four of his past five decisions. This hurler looks solid in the stats sheet but according to my cross reference pitcher vs Batting order power rankings looks to be at a disadvantage here this evening despite of LAs hitters never having faced him before. Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Dodgers are 20-8 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

The Cardinals have lost 23 straight on the moneyline as a road 130-plus dog when playing a team that has a worse record and it is post All-Star break and not a series opener.The Cardinals have lost 12 of 13 on the moneyline as a road dog of more than 135 after a game in which they hit at least one home run which happened last night in a 5-3 9th inning win.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 

SHANE BIEBER (R) vs. NATHAN EOVALDI (R) 

The power pitching righty looks to  continue his dominance at Fenway, where he won his first two starts for the Red Sox while allowing no runs over 15 innings. Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his career against Cleveland  and looks like a strong candidate for a BoSox victory in this spot. Meanwhile,Cleveland’s starter Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.37 ERA) has  not performed well on the road as is evident by  allowing three or four runs in three of his last four road starts. The kids really not very effective at the moment, and telegraphs his pitches, making everything seem like a beach ball crossing the plate for opposing batters, as is evident by opponents slugging .540 vs his fast ball. 

Red Sox are 11-3 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Indians have lost 21 of their L/22 as a road dog after they had a comeback win and it is post All-Star break.

BOSTON is 23-4 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season and is 33-8 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.BOSTON is 71-25  against the money line against right-handed starters this seasonBOSTON is 18-3  against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season. 

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the moneyline 

VINCENT VELASQUEZ (R) vs. TANNER ROARK (R) 

After struggling for more than a month, Roark the Nats starter tonight vs the Phillies has become one of the teams most consistent starters . In his last five starts he has posted a minsucle  1.77 ERA with 28 strikeouts and just five walks and gone a perfect  5-0. Meanwhile,Phillies Right-hander Vince Velasquez (8-9, 4.13) is in a bit of a funk of late, lasting just  four innings in a tilt vs  Arizona, and then just 2.1 innings last Wednesday vs. Boston in allowing  three runs and walking four. I really like Roarkes current form, and Im expecting the Nats to stand tall here tonight and garner the victory.

Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.Phillies are 0-5 in Velasquez’s last 5 road starts.

The Phillies have lost 18 in a row as a 125-plus dog off a home game in the first game of a series when their opponent is seeking same-season revenge for a loss.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (WASHINGTON) - team with a poor SLG (.400 or less) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 to 1.300) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL are 35-10 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Nationals to win on the moneyline 

MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. PABLO LOPEZ (R)

Masahiro Tanaka (9-4, 4.03) the NYY starter today has looked a little tired of late as his team has lost his last three trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Lopez the Marlins start makes his second interleague start. The righty won at Tampa Bay on July 21, permitting  one run on two hits and a walk, with six strikeouts, over 6.0 innings of quality ball. With Didi Gregorius injured  .270 / 22 homers/  74 RBIs and super star Aaron Judge still on the DL, the Yanks are not as formidable offensively, so Lopez looks like who could have a solid outing. 

Miami already shocked the Marlins this season by a 9-1 count, the last time Tanaka faced them, and the Japanese right  hander is just 0-2 in 2 career starts vs the Marlins, and must not be over estimated here vs a young team playing with very little to lose.

NY YANKEES are 14-15  against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season and are are 14-17  against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season. The Yankees have lost 11 straight on the road after playing as a home favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and it is post All-Star break.

MLB underdogs against a 1.5 run line.(Money Line +100 or higher) (MIAMI) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 39-16 L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Miami Marlins on the RUNLINE +1.5