Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

The Red Sox in this NLCS game will go left-hander David Price (0-1, 9.95 ERA over two starts this postseason)  . Price r has looked nasty in the post season  and in 11 career play off starts is (0-9, 6.16 ERA)  and in Game 2 allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over 4 2/3 innings. Im betting the Astros get after him today and unleash some damage on him and his incoming bullpen. His opponent from the Astrosi n Game 1, Verlander limited the Red Sox to two runs on two hits. But he issued four walks and is is susceptible to being reached by a Bosox team that spanked right handers for a.271 BA this season and 5.5 rpg on average. Five of the L/6meetings here in Houston have gone over and Im betting on this number being eclipsed this evening. 

Play on the OVER 

The Miami Heat enter this tilt vs the their hosts the Washington Wizards on tired legs after playing last night and garnering a hard fought 104-101 loss vs long time instate rivals the Orlando Magic. Im betting things won't get much better , as the Heat are banged up and were shorthanded last night  without James Johnson (sports hernia), Dion Waiters (left ankle), Wayne Ellington (left ankle), and Justise Winslow (right hamstring), and they are expected to miss Thursday's game as well. Look for Washington to be primed to get things rolling in the right direction on opening night behind four key returning starters John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Markieff Morris and possibly newly acquired with the hobbled Dwight Howard, who averaged 16.6 points and 12.5 rebounds last season with Charlotte.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 3-25 ATS in their follow up game since 1996 for a longterm go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road underdogs (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

Oh boy. Here I go laying DD lumber again. It does happen every so often, but its not something I consistently like to do, as its not conducive to my general mindset of constantly trying to find value on the line. But this is situation does warrant such a wager based on the talent discrepancy on the floor, and this being the home opener for the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Bulls continue their rebuild with a inexperienced young group, while the Sixers strive to move towards  keeping their new found respectability intact and ascending into the upper echelons of the NBA elite after a long drought. Also after being manhandled by the Celtics on opening night by a 105-87 count , you can bet this group will be out to get some redemption and be extremely motivated to put the pedal to the metal and come out of this with a win they can build on. The one game these teams played here in Philly last season resulted in a 115-101 win for the Sixers and another similar margin of victory is according to my projections another high probability outcome.PHILADELPHIA is 27-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons . There were  variations on the average point diff depending on the quality of opponent, with mean average clicking in around 10 ppg, but jumping into the 12.4 ppg range vs this categorized type of opposition based on my own systems. 

The Bulls are 3-14 ATS L/17 on the road and 0-6 L/6 vs the Atlantic and go down as fade material on this line.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

Coyotes are getting more competitive but despite of that are fade material here tonight according to my current power rankings vs a Chicago team that Im betting is better than advertised. The Blackhawks showed their speed and fortitude in a 7-6 loss to the explosive Leafs and have won 3 of their first 5 games and have the edge here on home ice again vs a Coyotes side that has lost 4 of their first 5 games and scored just 4 goals in total. 

Blackhawks are 66-22 in their last 88 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Blackhawks are 73-32 in their last 105 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Coyotes are 43-106 in their last 149 vs. a team with a winning record.Coyotes are 43-106 in their last 149 vs. a team with a winning record.

ARIZONA is 0-9 ATS against terrible power play teams - scoring on 13% or less of their chances over the last 3 seasons.ARIZONA is 2-17 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the first half of the season since 1996. 

NHL Home teams against the money line (CHICAGO) - after 4 or more consecutive overs, average team (-0.4 to +0.4 goal/game diff.) vs a poor team (-0.4 goal/game diff. or less ) are 32-3 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Blackhawks to win on the moneyline