Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

The Padres just look like their going through the motions right now as the season winds down. Tonight they will send a hurler in Lamet, that despite of being in decent form is still a little unstable after coming of Tommy John surgery. Here against a BoSox side that grind out at bats like no one else in the majors, Lamet could easily find himself tired and in trouble. Note: The Red Sox are averaging 6 rpg vs right handers like Lamet this season. 

The Padres got blasted yesterday  by  the BoSox by an11-0 count.  Note: SAN DIEGO is 3-16 against the money line in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last 3 seasons and is 1-7  against the money line revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more this season. 

SAN DIEGO is 3-18  against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

BOSTON is 40-16 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons.BOSTON is 10-1 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Boston RedSox to win on the ML

Wheeler the NY Mets starter is struggling mightily in his most recent two outings, where he allowed eight earned runs and an opponents’ batting average of .372 in only 10 innings pitched.With that said, Im betting on him continuing to be lit up as fatigue late in the season is rearing its ugly head. Meanwhile, Fried the Braves starter managed to complete five innings after nearly getting the hook during the first inning of Sunday's start against the Dodgers. The southpaw has  seen  opponents hit .271 against him in  his last four starts. I do epect he will bounce back here this week, but that is his overall form, is downtrending , and he should also end up taking on some more damage from the Mets offence this week in what Im betting will br a high scoring affair. 

Over is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 road games.Over is 7-1-2 in Wheelers last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.

The Braves are 18-0 OVER L/18 on the road off a game as a dog when their opponent's starter has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than 2.00 and an ERA of less than five, their opponent is less than .640 and they are not a 130-plus dog.

Play OVER 

Wheeler the Mets starter vs the Braves today is struggling mightily in his most recent two outings, where he allowed eight earned runs and an opponents’ batting average of .372 in only 10 innings pitched. Meanwhile, the Braves starter Fried had his five-start victory streak snapped on Sunday, when he didn't factor into the decision after allowing three runs over five innings as the Braves beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-3. Im betting on this top tier hurler bouncing back here tonight vs the Mets.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 4.5 or more  runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 2 runs or less 3 straight games are 30-18 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB team (ATLANTA) - very good offensive team - scoring 5.0 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games are 40-19 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the ML

Oakland starter Chris Bassitt (9-5, 3.61 ERA, 112 SO)limited the Astros to three runs over six innings in a win last Saturday, continuing his strong run over the past month. The right-hander holds a 1.80 ERA over his past four starts and in his current form makes for a viable investment opportunity backing the As.Meanwhile, Bumgarner the Giants starter has struggled a bit of late and  is 2-2 with a 6.30 ERA in five lifetime starts in Oakland.

With this being the Giants 8th straight road game, Im betting their gruelling schedule will effect them against a streaking squad with their eye on the post season.

Giants are 10-22 in Bumgarners last 32 road starts.Giants are 2-5 in Bumgarners last 7 interleague starts.Giants are 1-7 in Bumgarners last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Athletics are 22-8 in their last 30 vs. a team with a losing record.Athletics are 23-9 in their last 32 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Athletics are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Athletics are 4-0 in Bassitts last 4 home starts.Giants are 7-16 in the last 23 meetings in Oakland.Giants are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.

OAKLAND is 37-10 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Oakland As to win on the ML

Jets running back Le’Veon Bell won’t see action until the regular season. With QB Saints Drew Brees likely to see his only action prior to Week 1 kickoff the Saints have an edge over his young counterpart Sam Darnold . Note:  Brees has averaged 22 snaps in Week 3 of the previous two pre-seasons.

The Saints have covered 3 of their L/4 road games in the preseason and 6 of their L/8 preseason games overall and get the nod again.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-6 ATS  in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest .

NFLX Home teams (NY JETS) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 39-11 L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in non-conference games, off a double digit road win are 11-33 ATS L/10 seasons L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX Home teams (NY JETS) - after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 8-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game are 40-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Saints 

The weather forecast in Hawaii is calling for hefty winds that are being estimated at   14 mph  for the entire course  of the game with nasty Gusts   30 mph expected. It must also be noted that despite of having star QB at the helm of the Hawaii offence, in Junior QB Cole McDonald , the coordinators do not run a speed formation, and it is methodical in nature. Meanwhile, Arizona with Khalil Tate  back at QB, and J.J. Taylor returning at RB after a 1,434-yard season that ranked 6th nationally will once again focus on their ground attack to move the chains which will eat up precious clock time. Im liking the under here in this Paradise Island game between a PAC 12 opponent and MWC foe.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARIZONA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 35-11 L/seasons for a 76% conversion rate! 

Play on the UNDER 

The B.C. Lions outplayed the Hamilton Tiger-Cats last month in  their best road game of the season and still ended up with the L despite of covering as 8.5 dogs. Its been a very frustrating year for the Lions, and now they get a chance for redemption vs the TiCats here tonight at home . I know the public is all over the TiCats, because of the BCs horrible record ( 2-10 ATS) but travelling from East to West and playing in a different time zone is never easy. Plus the Lions have already proved they match up well vs this group of Hamilton players and must be respected in their ability to even pull off the SU upset. Note: CFL Home teams vs. the money line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - after 5 or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 15 are 29-12 SU  L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate with the ppg diff 0f +6.1 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard.

Tiger-Cats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Saturday games.Tiger-Cats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in AugustTiger-Cats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in BC.

Play on the BC Lions to cover 

Veteran QB Philip Rivers will not play this week vs the  Chargers and  backing Seattle is a good investment option behind  a above average group of backup QBs  ie JT Barrett and especially Geno Smith with veteran QB Wilson probably playing the first quarter. Pete Carrol said all of starters will see some action on Saturday, but has not specified how much. The line from its opening has spun around in a big way , but there is still market value here on this line favoring the Seahawks. Advantage Seahawks. 

SEATTLE is 31-12 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1993.

SEATTLE is 33-18 ATS in road games since 1993.

 NFLX team (SEATTLE) - after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 11-31 L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

 I know the Saints run and gun reputation proceeds them, but right now HC Payton just wants he key offensive  weapons to stay healthy, and for the goal of improving the defence this season to be key here tonight. Meanwhile, the Jets remain a team dedicated to playing strong D, and here in week 3 against a explosive opponent Im expecting a conservative effort and a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

Bowles is 13-5 UNDER in all games as the coach of NY JETS with average combined score of 34.6 ppg scored.

Week 3-4 NFLX totals above the 40 point threshold have gone  91-62-3 UNDER for a 60% conversion rate    since the 2004 season. 

NFLX team against the total (NY Jets/NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win are 67-25 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Saskatchewan is having a good season, winning 4 in a row and well Ottawa is not as they have now lost 6 of their L/7 overall. Tonight because of the direction and path both teams are on we get to bet into a recency bias line, that is bloated according to my power rankings charts. Despite the RedBlacks below .500 record at 3-6 Campbells troops are a hard working blue collar group that never say die and deserve my respect on a DD underdog line. Note: Ottawa has covered 14 of their L/19 as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Ottawa has won and covered their L/2 visits to the Prairies and get my support here again in this spot. 

SASKATCHEWAN is 4-13 ATS in home games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1996.

CFL Favorites (SASKATCHEWAN) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 43-81 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ottawa to cover

Both teams were of the top tier variety on the defensive side of the ball last season, with both ranking in the top-25 nationally for total defense. Im betting on more of the same this season, and for this particular battle to be won on the defensive side of the ball in the trenches. Look for Redshirt freshman QB Jarren Williams to do more than enough to get the Canes to the promised land and get us the cover. 

This is a huge instate non conference  rivalry game that Im betting will be hard fought, thus making getting points a value investment option. 

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in August.

Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

CFB road team vs. the money line (FLORIDA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 3-23 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate ( Average ppg differential clicks in at +12.5 ppg which makes this a strong ATS selection based on these above perimeters.)

Miami Fl to cover