Michael Alexander: Accurate & Professional Paid Picks Service

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat and their opponent combined to score over 231.5 points, the current matchup’s point total, in 53 of 82 games last year. Last season, 31 of the Hornets’ 82 matchups went over 231.5 total points scored. These two teams averaged a combined 236.9 points per game a season ago, 5.4 more points than the total of 231.5 set for this game. Opponents of these teams averaged a combined 229.7 points per game last season, 1.8 fewer than the over/under for this game. The Heat’s average point total in outings last year was 236.5, 5.0 points higher than the over/under in this game. The average over/under in Hornets games in 2025 was 0.7 fewer points than the point total of 231.5 in this game.

Rating: 6 Units

Nevada’s rushing attack is the single clearest edge on the board. San Jose State’s one-dimensional profile and brand-new starter under center are the weaknesses most likely to be exposed in a road Mountain West spot. The total’s quiet move downward is the market agreeing with that assessment.

Rating: 6 Units

Arizona State has been weaker both offensively and defensively, having a bottom-20 defense in the entire country. I cannot side with a team that has allowed 53+ points in two of its last two games and Kansas State has been a top-41 team both offensively and defensively for a +15.5 point differential. Take Kansas State 

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay possesses a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup. Drew Rasmussen was one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball during the regular season, compiling a 16-5 win-loss record, a 2.67 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and 174 strikeouts. Additionally, Rasmussen has been outstanding in the postseason, posting a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings pitched. With that said, the Rays are the clear side to be on in this contest. I am backing the Tampa Bay Rays 

Rating: 2 Units

TTU is 3-0-1 ATS after Arizona State and 6-1 ATS as a Big 12 road favorite of seven or more and 5-1 against single-game revenge. Whether or not Texas Tech is a national title contender may well be decided this weekend in Clifton. (ed: note, Clifton is a part of Cincinnati where the campus is). Cincinnati may have given up 598 yards in Morgantown, but they gained 622 with 389 in the air from perhaps the most efficient QB in the nation in JC French who has completed 70.6% at a 223 YPG clip with 9 touchdowns and zero picks in 153 attempts. He’s also rushed for six scores but will face a stiff Red Raiders defense that’s giving up less than 18 PPG. Cincinnati is also a scary 0-6-1 ATS as a home dog of seven or greater 

Rating: 3 Units

I’m on Oklahoma State here. I just don’t think that Colorado has the QB play to go shot for shot with Oklahoma State in this one, and with both teams coming off of a loss, I expect OK State to be more focused here while Colorado put everything into that home run effort against Utah last week. Give me OK State at home here.

Rating: 2 Units

Kentucky has been almost perfect this season and has won and covered its last five games, while being better both offensively and defensively than Vanderbilt. Vandy has been on a free fall with four straight wins and 0-2 ATS and have lost both of their road games this season, having scored just 14 and 15 points in those games. Kentucky has been dominating this matchup with a 7-3 record in their last 10 head-to-head meetings against Vandy, so take Kentucky

CFB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

BYU opponents have hit on 85.2% of its red zone opportunities and UCF has scored 21 of 22 times inside the 20-yard line including 17 touchdowns. UCF first made its reputation by winning big games in their noisy Bounce House and the Knights are 3-0 there this year including a win over TCU. A bit of bad news for the Knights, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported UCF QB Alonza Barnett is still not ready to return from an injury he suffered September 12, so Keyone Jenkins gets the nod for his fifth straight start. Jenkins has completed 70 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three picks. BYU saw a rough defense last week against the Irish and will see another good one in Orlando that has picked off six passes but gives up 118.3 rush yards per game. Knights coach Scott Frost called this Homecoming game “an awesome opportunity” and we agree particularly since we know something Frost may not. Teams that knock off Notre Dame as an underdog are 21-40-2 ATS the next week. Additionally, playing against any favorite that upset Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game and beat the spread by more than 14 points is 18-2 ATS.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Mississippi State is 4-2, but the Bulldogs need a response after being shut out 31-0 at LSU. Their offense has averaged 454 yards and 32.5 points per game this season. Quarterback Kamario Taylor has thrown 17 touchdown passes against four interceptions has slumped dramatically of late. His QB Rating has dipped. In his last three starts, he had a ‘natural disaster’ in the loss against Alabama (a fumble, a Pick 6, and an interception) before sitting out the LSU game last week with the famous ‘lower body’ injury. Like last year, the Bulldogs started the season 4-0 before hitting the inevitable ‘wall’. Last year, they lost their last two games and finished 5-8 when they were gifted a bowl game due to a short supply of eligible bowl teams. While OU has the stronger defense, the turnover margin is a concern. Expect the Sooners to get Mateer ironed out ‘sooner’ than later as OU improves to 9-3 ATS with a 500 record in games when they are not a double-digit favorite. Finally, Oklahoma is 14-8 ATS away with a .500 or lower win percentage since 1980, including 10-3 ATS when coming off an ATS loss of -15 or more points.