Kyle Hunter Free Sports Picks & Handicapping Review

*3 Star Play on South Dakota State* The Texas Longhorns will be without Big 12 Freshman of the Year Jaxson Hayes here. That's key since Hayes is a good shot blocker at the back of the defense, and a good low post scorer.

Mike Daum is one of the best mid-major players in the country, and Daum won't have to deal with Hayes in this contest. Daum and his South Dakota State team want to keep their season going after having a disappointing exit from the Summit League Tournament when they were stunned by Western Illinois.

Texas is in a very questionable motivation spot. The Longhorns expected more from this season, and the team chemistry has been subpar this year. You have to wonder if these guys are very excited for an NIT game against a mid-major. Shaka Smart is on the hot seat, but this team hasn't played like a team who is trying to save his job. Smart likely won't be fired because of his massive buyout, but the team isn't buying in right now.

Texas lost at home to Radford earlier this year. They lost at home to VCU. They lost at home to Providence. They haven't blown many teams out this season.

South Dakota State is 3rd in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense at 41.5% from 3. Texas' biggest weakness on defense is defending beyond the arc.

Take South Dakota State. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd love to run. Marshall ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Thundering Herd have gotten more efficient on offense as the season has moved along. 

IUPUI ranks 120th in tempo, so they play relatively quickly as well. The Jaguars rank 320th in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Marshall ranks in the top 40 in the country in most 3 pointers attempted. The Thundering Herd should get some easy looks from long range.

IUPUI's biggest strength on offense is their ability to grab offensive rebounds. Marshall's single biggest weakness is defensive rebounding. They rank 338th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

Overs have done really well in the early rounds of the smaller postseason tournaments. They have done especially well in games with two teams with a winning percentage under 60% for the season. This game fits that system.

Jon Elmore needs 20 points to become Marshall's all time scoring leader, and that should lead Marshall to push the pace even more here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a low total for an early smaller postseason tournament contest. These games are generally much faster paced than the regular season contests. 

This is an NIT game, and they have changed the rules for this year's NIT as an experiment. The 3 point line is a bit farther back (FIBA distance), but the shot clock resets to only 20 on an offensive rebound. Additionally, on the 2nd foul in the last two minutes teams will shoot two shots no matter how many fouls they have committed in that period. There will be no 1 and 1 attempts. Fouls will be reset every 10 minutes and after 5 fouls teams will shoot two shots.

These rule changes on the whole favor more scoring and a quicker pace. 

Creighton has been really efficient at home this year. Creighton saw 15 of their 17 games at home go over this posted total. 

Loyola Chicago ranked 31st in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are only 176th in that metric this season. They rank 293rd in 3 point defense, and Creighton shoots the 13th highest percentage of 3 pointers of any team in the country. 

Take the over.